What killed the Phillies...

[heyelander]

maybe this should have just gone in interesting baseball reads, but it's an interesting analysis of what can destroy a team...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/extending-ryan-howard-is-not-what-killed-the-phillies/

The Phillies won five straight division titles from 2007 through 2011 but have been in freefall ever since. After winning 102 games in 2011, they have won only 81, 73, and 73 games in the last three years, respectively, culminating in a last-place finish this past season. With two years left in their run of success, the Phillies made the surprising move of extending their slugging first baseman, Ryan Howard, to a five-year, $125 million extension that did not begin until 2012. The move was met with criticism, especially from the sabermetric community. Almost poetically, Howard injured himself running out a season-ending ground out at the end of 2011, effectively in the final play before his extension commenced.

The contract has been an unbridled catastrophe. In the first three years of the deal, Howard has added no value at all: he has -1.0 WAR. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has been mostly defiant about his unwillingness to incorporate sabermetrics into his decision making. Even in 2012, right before it became clear the window was already closed, Amaro was quoted as saying, “I believe you can break down and analyze statistics any way you really want, but when it comes to scouting heart and head, you can’t do it with sabermetrics.” Surprisingly, although the Phillies have cost themselves through their own math-phobia and stubbornness, the Ryan Howard contract is not what killed them.

The article then goes on to explain what really caused the phillies' failure.

[The Dane]

Great piece. The author asserts that there isn't a clear culprit in his narrative, but I think he's missed the boat. They replaced guys like Wade/Arbuckle with Gillick/Amaro. Arbuckle clearly went on to success with KC, so it seems to me that he had some poor years in the middle there (who doesn't?) and then rebounded.

Honestly, anyone who resists totally sabermetric ideas deserves to lose. I feel for their fans.

[heyelander]

i think it's just as interesting a read on how hard it is to buy your way to a championship. Even the yankees were built on a ton of home grown talent.

[The Dane]

i think it's just as interesting a read on how hard it is to buy your way to a championship. Even the yankees were built on a ton of home grown talent.

Exactly. This is why I appreciate teams like the Cardinals so much.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Video?

[onejayhawk]

Other than extremely young Posada, Jeter and Rivera, who did the Yankees rely on for that monster year in 1998?

I remember Tino, Bernie Williams and Paul O'Niell were the offensive core, plus Brosius and Knoblach. El Duque Hernandez, Cone and Boomer Wells were the front three. Of that list Williams was brought up a Yankee.

J

[Judge Jude]

1998 Yanks by OPS+, starters in CAPS, minimum 100 PA

BWILLIAMS 160 -HOMEGROWN
Strawberry 132 - Mets
O'NEILL 130 - Reds
JETER 127 - HOMEGROWN
TMARTINEZ 124 - Mariners
BROSIUS 121 - Athletics
CDavis 116 - Giants
POSADA 115 - HOMEGROWN
RAINES 107 - Expos
KNOBLAUCH 102 - Twins
CCURTIS 90 - Angels
Girardi 85 - Cubs
Sojo 37 (!) - Blue Jays
(HOMEGROWN Shane Spencer racked up a 236 OPS+ in 73 PA; never reached 100 again)

P by ERA+
Lloyd 267 - Blue Jays
RIVERA 233 - HOMEGROWN
EL DUQUE 142 - Cuba
RMENDOZA 137 - HOMEGROWN
Holmes 134 - Dodgers
DWELLS 127 - Blue Jays
CONE 125 - Royals
IRABU 109 - Japanese toad
JNelson 118 - Mariners
PETTITTE 104 - HOMEGROWN
Stanton 81 - Braves
Buddie 79 - HOMEGROWN

[Sharky]

I loathe these arguments about the Yankees' homegrown talent. They were only able to keep that core because of their financial resources. Otherwise they would have been forced to trade them or let them sign elsewhere. So it's a very specious argument that the Yankees won because of homegrown talent (and not money as well).

[joncarlos]

It's still a good point, though, that MOST teams can't win if they have to pay $6mil/WAR for 3/4 of their team. You need a lot of flukey seasons (ala the 2009 Yankees who got a TON of performance from their old dudes)

Posada 125 OPS+ age 37 (only 13mil because he was old)
Teix 141 OPS+ age 29 (signed as young FA)
Cano 121 OPS+ age 26 (only 6mil because he was homegrown)
Jeter 125 OPS+ age 35 (21.6mil)
A-Rod 138 OPS+ age 33
Damon 118 OPS+ age 35 (only 13mil because he was old)
Swisher 122 OPS+ age 28 (stolen in trade)
Matsui 123 OPS+ age 35 (only 13mil because he was old)

Sabathia 137 ERA+ age 28 (signed as young FA)
Burnett 114 ERA+ age 32
Pettitte 111 ERA+ age 37 (only 5.5mil because he was old)

Rivera 262 ERA+ age 39

Hughes (23), Coke (26), Joba (23), obertson (24), Aceves (26) all big homegrown contributors to the bullpen

[Controller Jacobs]

These guys love to put sabremetrics as the antithesis of scouting, but does anyone believe a scout told Amaro to extend Ryan Howard to age 37 at $25 million per? Amaro is full of shit.

[Erik]

These guys love to put sabremetrics as the antithesis of scouting, but does anyone believe a scout told Amaro to extend Ryan Howard to age 37 at $25 million per? Amaro is full of shit.

I think David Montgomery (CEO) told him to do it, and he didn't object because of his obsession with "cost certainty."

I am less concerned about the FO's preference for scouting over sabermetrics than I am about their being really bad at scouting. If you're going to hang your hat on identification of talent, then you've gotta actually be good at that. Their drafts since 2002 have been mostly terrible.

[Kevin Seitzer]

These guys love to put sabremetrics as the antithesis of scouting,

The idea of sabermetrics as the antithesis of scouting is stupid. It's not the way the baseball industry actually works. It's much more of an issue for the media than it is for scouts, coaches, and front offices.

[Moonlight J]

The idea of sabermetrics as the antithesis of scouting is stupid. It's not the way the baseball industry actually works. It's much more of an issue for the media than it is for scouts, coaches, and front offices.

Agreed. Many stories get written about it and you'll have 2-3 anecdotes from some former players, but it's usually the bitter ones and not the more informed ones.