Spanish paper reporting Nelson Cruz to Seattle for 4 years & $57M

[Moonlight J]

http://www.elcaribe.com.do/2014/12/01/lrmnelson-cruz-esta-cerca-firmar-con-seattle-por-57-millones-dolares

bye bye fantasy value

[Moonlight J]

His 4-year ZiPS projections

[Hornsby]

At a little over 14 million a year, not a bad value at all if he can average 25 and 80...

[SlideRule]

http://www.elcaribe.com.do/2014/12/0...llones-dolares

bye bye fantasy value

Not sure I agree 100% that his fantasy value is shot, is it? Yes, Safeco is at the bottom of park factors for runs, but actually favors the hitter (esp RH?) for HRs, maybe this is since the 2013 renovations lowering the wall and bringing them in a bit. I won't argue that Safeco is a hitter's park, but for a RH HR hitter it may not be terrible, right?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

[joncarlos]

Not sure I agree 100% that his fantasy value is shot, is it? Yes, Safeco is at the bottom of park factors for runs, but actually favors the hitter (esp RH?) for HRs, maybe this is since the 2013 renovations lowering the wall and bringing them in a bit. I won't argue that Safeco is a hitter's park, but for a RH HR hitter it may not be terrible, right?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

I am not sure I trust ESPN's park factors. Aside from that, Cruz isn't leaving a neutral wonderland for Safeco, he's leaving the RH power paradise that is Camden Yards.

[Hornsby]

I am not sure I trust ESPN's park factors. Aside from that, Cruz isn't leaving a neutral wonderland for Safeco, he's leaving the RH power paradise that is Camden Yards.

Except that he hit 25 of his 40 homers on the road last year, so Camden wasn't a huge factor in his big year. He also had 28 more RBI on the road...

[Moonlight J]

Not sure I agree 100% that his fantasy value is shot, is it? Yes, Safeco is at the bottom of park factors for runs, but actually favors the hitter (esp RH?) for HRs, maybe this is since the 2013 renovations lowering the wall and bringing them in a bit. I won't argue that Safeco is a hitter's park, but for a RH HR hitter it may not be terrible, right?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

It still isn't the dream Baltimore is for RH power plus the marine layer in Seattle is thick. Stuff just doesn't carry there.

[Moonlight J]

Except that he hit 25 of his 40 homers on the road last year, so Camden wasn't a huge factor in his big year. He also had 28 more RBI on the road...

Toronto & Fenway are also dreamy for RH pop. He now goes to a division that has 2 big pitcher parks on the road plus his home park vs the 9 games a year in each of the Texas parks

[Moonlight J]

Those ZipS projections seem weird to me. Why would his SLG% plummet so suddenly and dramatically? I guess I can see that prognostication four years down the road, but next year? They're essentially projecting career lows for Cruz by a pretty large margin.

Cruz's value lies in his bat and he's come through on offense pretty much every year he's played. His big shortcoming is defense.

Still, last year he put up almost 5 WAR. Of course that could and probably will slide, maybe even quite a bit. But to pretty much nil over the next two years? Hmm....

I think he ages like Josh Willingham - and that's not a good thing. The drop from '14 to '15 factors in park, normal age regression, and his HR/FB coming back down to earth. He hit .249/.308/.451 from June 1st on last year so those ZiPS are well within the range of probability.

[Gregg]

Those ZipS projections seem weird to me. Why would his SLG% plummet so suddenly and dramatically? I guess I can see that prognostication four years down the road, but next year? They're essentially projecting career lows for Cruz by a pretty large margin.

Cruz's value lies in his bat and he's come through on offense pretty much every year he's played. His big shortcoming is defense.

Still, last year he put up almost 5 WAR. Of course that could and probably will slide, maybe even quite a bit. But to pretty much nil over the next two years? Hmm....

Yep, I was wondering about this drastic decline as well. Seems off.

[Bodhizefa]

It's a stupid move by a predominantly stupid GM. A more creative GM would have gone after someone like Scott Van Slyke or Steven Souza in conjunction with a J.Upton/Gattis/Kemp acquisition. Now Zduriencik has locked in the M's at DH for 4 years of a guy who turns 35 by mid-season in 2015. Yikes!

I don't mind Cruz for 2015, although I expect quite a precipitous dropoff from his career year in 2014. As mentioned by Jason, Seattle's marine air is thick and impacts homeruns quite a bit. And Safeco's park plays a lot friendlier to lefties than it does righties, no matter what one year of ESPN park factor says. Cruz is light years better than what we've gotten from DH in a long while, however, so that's why it's not such a bad deal for the Mariners next year. It's every year afterwards that I'm annoyed at this one as Seattle isn't exactly wide open with their purse strings like they were a decade ago.

[chancellor]

Well, if Seattle's air is really humid, that would help power not hinder it...

[Bodhizefa]

Well, if Seattle's air is really humid, that would help power not hinder it...

It's cold and humid. It doesn't help, amigo. It's incredibly dense and kills fly balls.

[Hornsby]

Well, if Seattle's air is really humid, that would help power not hinder it...

Science...stop it!

Weather has an important influence on how a baseball travels when it is hit. Air pressure, wind, temperature and humidity are important to note.

Air pressure: Air pressure depends on the elevation of a region and the current weather. Air pressure is usually the most important factor in determining how far a baseball will travel in the air when hit, all else being equal. At higher elevations, air has a lower density. When the air density is lower, baseballs can travel further. Air rubbing against a baseball produces a frictional force. The lower the air density, the smaller this frictional force becomes. Air density also changes depending on whether high pressure or low pressure weather is influencing the region.

Wind: Wind either amplifies or reduces the amount of friction the baseball experiences during flight. Air flowing toward the baseball in flight acts as a force to slow the forward motion. This slows the ball down and reduces its flight path. Wind flowing with the baseball helps it fly longer distances.

Temperature: When air warms, it expands. This warming and expansion lowers the density of the air. This produces longer flight distances, all else being basically equal.

Humidity: At the same temperature, air with a higher dewpoint will be less dense. Click here for an explanation of why this is. At a higher humidity, baseballs will travel a little further, all else being equal.

Optimum for long baseball hits: high elevation, wind blowing out, warm and humid air mass
Minimization for long baseball hits: low elevation, wind blowing in, cold and dry air mass

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/285/

BTW, Camden Yards is 36 feet above sea level, and Safeco is 17...pretty much a wash...

[Bodhizefa]

Science...stop it!

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/285/

BTW, Camden Yards is 36 feet above sea level, and Safeco is 17...pretty much a wash...

I understand the studies done on humidity and baseball traveling distance. And I've also seen more Safeco Field baseball than most of you combined. Maybe it's a wind current (balls decidedly travel worse when the roof is open). Maybe it's the current plus the cool, dense air. Maybe its a freaking curse for all I know. All I'm saying is that the ball dies in the air in left field and left center in Safeco. You can't compare one stadium's altitude, distance from an ocean, or its fence distances and think you know how someone can hit there or how a ball travels compared to another stadium. It's much more complicated than that. Safeco with the roof open is one of the toughest parks for right handers to hit period.