NL only - Fernandez vs Syndergaard

[whalewang]

9 team NL only keeper league, 5x5 roto. I'll be building for 2016+.

4 years of Fernandez ($10, $15, $20, $25)
vs
6 years of Syndergaard ($5, $5, $10, $15, $20, $25)

Is this heavily weighted toward Fernandez?

[Judge Jude]

when does the Syndergaard clock start? you'll lose money I bet on Fernandez in 2015, and he may not be all-in for 2016 either. his contract keeps rising as his likely value will. If Syndergaard is good out of the gate and avoids TJS (not a lock), in his case you may make a profit every year.

interesting conundrum, depending on the start of the Noah clock

[whalewang]

Syndergaard's clock starts the year he's called up (which I assume to be 2015).

[Hornsby]

What ELD said...the Marlins expect Fernandez back in June or July, and they're talking realistically about his contribution this season. So while he's going to be limited, I fully expect that, barring a setback, he'll once again be a top 5 or 10 pitcher in 2016, What Noah is capable of is anyone's guess...

[Judge Jude]

"So while he's going to be limited, I fully expect that, barring a setback,"

interesting that while Noah is considered a risk here, a second Fern injury is just "barring a setback..."

I'd need to see a recent age-parallel to him who has never again skipped a beat.

Fernandez likely will be an excellent SP again, with IP. but it takes time, and this contract has a red light with a bunch of wires.

re Noah, what does "called up" mean? if his contract clock starts with a year used up if he comes in Sept and pitches 5 IP, that cuts into the deal for sure.

"Going away" is insufficient without addressing the ever-increasing contract and the older 2nd TJS talents. And Strasburg has been good, but does he crush a contract like this?

context.

[Sour Masher]

I'm with ElD and Hornsby. JF has shown himself to be a top tier generational talent. Truly special. Thor has shown nothing in The Show. Even granting JF's significant risk in 2015 and maybe beyond, his ceiling isn't a speculation--we've seen what he can do. Thor ever getting to the mountaintop Jose has already been to is a longer shot than Jose getting back there imo.

[Hornsby]

"So while he's going to be limited, I fully expect that, barring a setback,"

interesting that while Noah is considered a risk here, a second Fern injury is just "barring a setback..."

I'd need to see a recent age-parallel to him who has never again skipped a beat.

Fernandez likely will be an excellent SP again, with IP. but it takes time, and this contract has a red light with a bunch of wires.

re Noah, what does "called up" mean? if his contract clock starts with a year used up if he comes in Sept and pitches 5 IP, that cuts into the deal for sure.

"Going away" is insufficient without addressing the ever-increasing contract and the older 2nd TJS talents. And Strasburg has been good, but does he crush a contract like this?

context.

Fernandez has shown elite level skills at the very highest levels of his sport, Syndergaard has shown nothing at this level, so he's a much higher risk because of that, IMO. Pitchers are always one pitch from blowing up, aren't they? So again, I think that it only makes sense to invest in one who's shown that he's as close to a sure thing as there is. The major league landscape is littered with "prospects" who've never been able to advance beyond that stage, so I'll take the chance on the guy who's done it, vs the guy who hasn't.

[onejayhawk]

This is weird, since I am banking on both these guys carrying water next season.

J

[Judge Jude]

I would not bank on a lot from either in 2015, especially in terms of MLB workload.

Another issue here would be if there is a penalty - financially or otherwise - to having to cut either down the road.

[onejayhawk]

I would not bank on a lot from either in 2015, especially in terms of MLB workload.

Another issue here would be if there is a penalty - financially or otherwise - to having to cut either down the road.

If it's a matter of rolling dice, then hand me the cup. My offense is going to be very solid, but time is creeping up on it. Next year youth will come through, or we go home empty. In any event, my rotation is coming from what I already own:

SP Matt Harvey NYM
SP Zack Wheeler NYM
SP Carlos Carrasco Cle
SP José Fernández Mia
SP Noah Syndergaard NYM

SP Lucas Giolito Was
SP Carlos Rodon CWS

16 team H2H, SPx4, RPx3, Px3. Wheeler is in his last year. Fernandez, Syndergaard and Carrasco have options for 2016. Harvey for 2016 and 2017. I have 2 picks in the first 200.

Yes, I know I am overexposed to Mets.

J