Who will be the first big name free agent to sign.

[Gregg]

Who will be the first big name free agent to sign an new contract?

Who will be the first big name free agent to sign with their own team?

Who will be the first big name free agent to sign with another team?


I will guess Brandon McCarthy as the first to sign. This will also put him as the first to sign with their own team.

I will go with Pablo Sandoval as the first to sign with another team.

[joncarlos]

I expect David Robertson and Russell Martin to re-sign pretty quickly with their teams. First with another team? I'll guess Melky.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Does Koji Uehara count as the first to re-sign with his team?

[Gregg]

Does Koji Uehara count as the first to re-sign with his team?

Ha...nope.

[madducks]

I expect David Robertson and Russell Martin to re-sign pretty quickly with their teams. First with another team? I'll guess Melky.

Martin? Really? Do you think he likes Pittsburgh enough to take less money and stay? I hope you're right.

[Gregg]

Martin? Really? Do you think he likes Pittsburgh enough to take less money and stay? I hope you're right.

Martin will be with the Chicago Cubs in 2015...but I would rather the Cubs used the Martin money to sign 2 top and one mid-upper tier pitching free agents.

[joncarlos]

Martin? Really? Do you think he likes Pittsburgh enough to take less money and stay? I hope you're right.

Everything I've heard is that the Pirates are trying to massively overpay him. I suspect they're trying to get him before the Cubs and whoever else wants him really gets a sense of just how high the bidding will go. The Pirates' idea of a massive overpay and the Cubs' idea of a massive overpay could be quite different. I think if he stays it gets done quickly.

[The Dane]

Catchers tend to age so poorly that I can't help but wonder about the wisdom of tending Martin a huge contract. He's already 31.

Agreed. It seems that Pittsburg would be better served to get a cheaper vet to manage the staff until Sanchez is ready to play everyday. It doesn't seem like he's that far away from being a league-average backstop if given the opportunity.

[joncarlos]

Catchers tend to age so poorly that I can't help but wonder about the wisdom of tending Martin a huge contract. He's already 31.

His bat, sure. But his ability to handle a pitching staff, his framing skills, all that stuff tends to age pretty well.

[BuckyBuckner]

Agreed. It seems that Pittsburg would be better served to get a cheaper vet to manage the staff until Sanchez is ready to play everyday. It doesn't seem like he's that far away from being a league-average backstop if given the opportunity.

There was a brief discussion of the Pirates catching down in Arizona and the consensus was that Sanchez is not the answer.

[joncarlos]

Nate Silver wrote about this and it appears that catchers age far worse than do other players, particularly at age 32 --- just exactly where Martin will be next season.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4464

Here's a more updated article:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20596

Basically, the aging effect is very small, with no more than two runs separating the prime from the career nadir. Below is a chart showing an estimated career curve, featuring a slight improvement until age 25, followed by a gentle decline.

[joncarlos]

Interesting. Thanks for that.

I wonder to what extent survivor bias plays into this analysis, though. Obviously crappy catchers flame out much earlier and the very best stick around, thereby biasing the data in favor of older catchers. I also wonder whether, given the relative inadequacy of defensive catcher metrics outside of framing, how well declines are captured in the data.

Bottom line still stands true, though, doesn't it? Martin is a near lock to decline, given his age and position. Is it really worth it for a small market team to extend a significant portion of its salary to a player in that position?

It really depends on what you think he brings to the table. If you think he's a force multiplier, a significant contributor to the success of your $5mil Volquezes and $8mil Lirianos, then you absolutely keep him. If you pay him 4/60 (which is admittedly a little nuts, and yet maybe not enough) then you can keep doing those things and go sign Brandon Morrow for $4mil this off-season. If you think of him that way, and you let him walk, then you need to go and pay $13mil for Brandon McCarthy or pay Ervin Santana and give up the draft pick, or something like that.

If you DON'T think of him that way, and you give Searage most of the credit, sign Morrow, bring in Geovanny Soto and spend the extra money on first base or something.

In the article I linked, Max actually said that good framers (Ausmus, Jose Molina) actually got better with age. So yes there is some survivor bias there, but Martin is a good framer.

[Gregg]

JC, I am thinking it is going to take 4/60 to sign him. That is why I mentioned in an earlier post that I would prefer to take that money and put it in the pool to get 3 of the top 5 free agent pitchers.

But you bring up good points on what he can bring to a real baseball team. We tend to think of players through our fantasy game eyes. I sure wouldn't be disappointed if we signed him in addition to 2 top starters and one very serviceable pitcher.

[Gregg]

Who will be the first big name free agent to sign an new contract? --- I think Ervin Santana will be the first domino to fall ---- I'll guess 3/33 with the Red Sox.

Who will be the first big name free agent to sign with their own team? --- I will guess that Chase Headley resigns with the Yankees.

Who will be the first big name free agent to sign with another team? --- Isn't this the same question as the first one? I'll guess that Jon Lester signs a megadeal with the Cubbies. Let's say 5/125 or thereabouts.

I really hope you are right about Lester.

[joncarlos]

http://bleacherreport.com/tb/dfkz8?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=pittsburgh-pirates

Martin is believed [to be] seeking a five-year deal considering that has been the precedent set for top catchers. Brian McCann, Yadier Molina and Miguel Montero all signed five-year deals, for $85 million, $75 million and $60 million, respectively.