Judge Jude's Annual Anatomy of An Auction

[Judge Jude]

.. will be up tonight.

Sneak preview:
In NL 12-team standard 5x5, I bid 23 for Furcal, 31 for Ethier, 20 for Wandy, 26 for Greinke, 9 for Wainwright,15 for Utley, 44 for Braun, 28 for Aramis, 28 for SDrew, 18 for Kuroda, 33 for BPhillips - and wound up not getting any of them.

Other "bargains" I didn't get in the nuttiest of the 28 annual auctions I've been in for this league. We're getting older - and crazier:
Fielder 44, Espinosa 19, Broxton 35, CaseyBlake 17, FCordero 25, Ubaldo 35, Santana 10, Dempster 29, Putz 33, CarlosLee 29, Kemp 49 (!), Ludwick 19, Overbay 19, Lowe 19, and Garza 24.

I did well early, then made some mistakes later before a modest rally in the endgame.

Back later....

[ThatRogue]

I'm not surprised that none of those prices held up. Our auction yesterday had insane pricing too, and was the craziest and most unpredictable in the twelve years I've been in this league (as you'll see when I post our draft anatomy...though I'll defer and wait until after yours is done, since you started the draft anatomy trend on RJ ).

[Judge Jude]

ANNUAL ANATOMY OF AN AUCTION

For my 28th annual auction in this league, I walked in with just this:

C Carlos Ruiz 6
OF Shane Victorino 29
SP Roy Halladay 44
SP Tommy Hanson 10
SP Stephen Straburg 5
5 for 94 units

I traded away Jonathan Sanchez 10-O for Strasburg 5-S1 recently, since I’m basically just rebuilding for 2012 after selling my soul in vain last season (an amazing 13 players or farm picks I dealt away during last season were frozen by other teams).

My gut feeling was that because of a 2008 rule change to make even farmhand hitters just 5 units, inflation should be higher than typical because about 18 farmhands carried the 5-S2 price (or the 10/15 price if they were clearly studs). So I wanted to be fairly aggressive early. My targets and price points included (with alternatives) Braun 42 (Holliday), Aramis 23 (Sandoval), McLouth 11 (BFrancisco), Berkman 8 (DeRosa, other 1B-OF vets). Was willing to go 16-18 for Wandy, Dempster, or Garza, or maybe 13 for Lowe. Liked Motte up to 5 in ‘pen if feasible.

And then – all hell broke loose, at least relative to this relatively moderate league (all of the owners are over 40, the average age is over 50, we have three retirees and a couple more getting close, and the last “new blood” arrived in 2002).

I had this auction later than usual, so less value to this, I realize. But for newer owners, those who find auctions to be a mystery, or my many equally savvy comrades here, I hope there’s some entertainment value here.

I start out needing:
18 for 166

In sequence of when I obtained them:

MATT HOLLIDAY 40 – I go to 44 on Braun, but can’t get him. Pujols goes for 48 earlier, Fielder 44, Howard 38 – the rules of engagement are pretty clear. Kemp goes later for 49, Ethier 32, Werth 36, so I won’t kick myself here in a rebuilding mindset. Now need 17 for 126

PABLO SANDOVAL 23 – We’re in the third round now, and the frenzy isn’t going away. A couple of owners still have 150+ units, and the first hint of panic is sensed. So if I can get a guy like this even at the peak of my comfort level, I need to do it. Aramis goes later for 29, so I’ll take this one, too. Need 16 for 103

MIGUEL MONTERO 15 – Was torn here: I already had Ruiz at 6, and figured I could get a decent price on 5-6 catchers. This is the best of the bunch available, but indeed later I see Iannetta and Yadier each go for only 8. In this frenzied room, I want to make sure I can add solid players before it REALLY gets nutty, so it’s ok. Need 15 for 88

NATE MCLOUTH 15 – Guh. Another 14-15 players have gone by, and some owners STILL have 120+ units left. I do not like McLouth types at all for that sort of markup, but the need to avoid the silliest late bidding wars pushed me over the top. Not bragging here on this one. Need 14 for 73

BEN FRANCISCO 11 – Ok, that’s my target price, and we’re at the stage that ANYONE who can be had for the target price is alluring. I think it was in Round 8 when an owner who also had an NL only auction Friday night said that our auction finally bought any player for less than was paid there (Buck for 11 here, 12 there). That’s amazing. Need 13 for 62

BILL HALL 10 – Never owned him before, don’t like him now. Had yet to fill a single 2B-SS-MI slot, and not a lot left at this point. Not happy. Need 12 for 52

JAMES LONEY 20 – There are very few decent players left, and plenty of owners still have way too much money. I gambled that Loney was boring enough that no one would bid him into the stratosphere. At this stage, in this particular auction, this was a good buy even if he’s not a likely keeper in 2012. Need 11 for 32

PLACIDO POLANCO 12 – Great, another old guy. But by now the talent cupboard is almost bare, and I can see that plenty of bargains will await me at the end because of the laughable, desperate unit-draining buys in this time frame like Branyan 19, Dempster 29, Blake 17, Lowe 19 etc. Need 10 for 20, and now willing to wait a couple of rounds before grabbing a solid undervalued guy or two before dollar days. Comfortable at this point in the auction.

KOSUKE FUKUDOME 5 – What the fuku? Yes, he’s a decent player, but the guy’s liable to be in Japan by 2012, which is what I’m looking at. There was very little talent left by now, but I should have let someone else get a “bargain” at 4. Need 9 for 15

KYLE MCCLELLAN 6 – First pitcher I took in this entire auction! Spectacular spring and I'd love him as a sleeper, cheaper, but this play eliminated a lot of other opportunities later. Only hope is that the bargain basement bin is even deeper than I have hoped. Need 8 for 9

HOMER BAILEY 2 – Ok, this is the sort of play you make for 2012, and of course he may even bring a nice profit this year. Everybody’s almost broke by now. Need 7 for 7

SCOTT COUSINS 1 – Where did this come from? The auction was fast-paced this year (3.5 hours instead of the usual 4.5), and that can lead to results like this. The Marlins kid is not a bad play late, but I already had 5 OFs, so this ate up my UT slot. My last two 1-unit hitters will have to be a SS and a 2B-SS. I’d have done better to grab a pitcher here. Need 6 for 6

RANDY WOLF 1 – Much-maligned vet had a stellar second half for me last year (8 W, 3.10 ERA). Bad spring, and hammered today I later found out, but the price is right. I’ll take my chances. Need 5 for 5

MIKE LEAKE 1 – Few rivals could top my 1-unit P bid, and seemed like sexier names remained, so why not develop a kid who could be a nice price for 2012. Need 4 for 4

JEFF KEPPINGER 1 – On DL, so was obvious I’d get him at this price. A pulse is a real plus at this stage. Need 3 for 3

AARON HARANG 1 – Yes, really. Wouldn’t call him earlier, in case I could get lucky here. No lock, but in Petco this sure seems like a sensible play. Need 2 for 2

DANIEL HERNANDEZ 1 – Just have to name a guy to own him, and 8th-inning setup man to fragile Putz who throws 97 is the type of guy I wanted as I rebuild. Need 1 for 1

DANIEL MURPHY 1 – A rather uncertain future, but better to pencil in as a 2B-SS than a “real,” lightweight scrub. DONE

REPLACEMENTS

For Strasburg – SAM DEMEL. Not really a believer, but another chance to “short” Putz in ARI and I get the retroactive win. Short leash here.

For Keppinger – ANGEL SANCHEZ. Meh, but off to a decent start and might provide a run scored now and then.

For Bailey – CHRIS VOLSTAD. A 7th SP means maybe I get enough Ws and Ks to stay out of the basement.

…………………

ROSTER, not a pennant-winner

SP Roy Halladay
SP Tommy Hanson
SP Aaron Harang
SP Randy Wolf
SP Kyle McClellan
SP Mike Leake
SP Chris Volstad for Homer Bailey
RP Daniel Hernandez
RP Sam Demel for Stephen Strasburg

C Miguel Montero
C Carlos Ruiz
1B James Loney
3B Pablo Sandoval
13 Placido Polanco
2B Bill Hall
SS Angel Sanchez for Jeff Keppinger
2S Daniel Murphy
OF Matt Holliday
OF Shane Victorino
OF Nate McLouth
OF Ben Francisco
OF Kosuke Fukudome
UT Scott Cousins

[swampdragon]

I think that more and more owners are going with a stars and prospects mentality in keeper leagues
paying a premium for premium players
and then grabbing cheap guys as fill-ins or trading chips

In my league a $28 Adam LaRoche is worthless
stats aren't great just good
too expensive to keep for next year - so little trade value

[ThatRogue]

This looks like a team that could perform fairly well. Halladay and Hanson should cover up some of the downside risk of Wolf and Harang...both of whom do have some upside. McClellan and Leake could be better than league average, so you have the makings of at least a decent pitching staff. And, while the offense is not star-studded, they will put up those nice boring everyday player stats, especially once Holliday returns (what is your plan if/when he goes on the DL?)

Our league has recently seen a strategy shift in which the obvious re-builders adopt a scorched earth policy of EXTREME stars-and-scrubs which dramatically alters auction pricing and almost immediate post-auction trading. Are you going to let this team play it out initially to see if they have an opportunity to contend...or deal Victorino, Halladay and Holliday for cheap keepers in the very near future?

[Gregg]

Without seeing the other teams, this seems to be middle of the pack. If this is a league that is trending towards stars and scrubs it may come down to who has the most talented scrubs.

Ever do a double dump? Trade all of your stars now for hot prospects and injured players only to wait a a couple of months and trade all of the prospects for lame duck contracts and expensive non-keepers to make a late run at the title?

[Judge Jude]

I usually give my team at least 6-7 weeks before throwing up the white flag. As noted, my odds aren't good but if everything falls into place I have easily the best set of farmhands (again, thanks in part to RJ recommendations). The wait in part is to avoid the "double dump" - have not done that.

The defending champ had the best freeze list this year, too, but drafted an incredible FIVE DL'd players out of 12 auction pickups (and all four pitching slots he had open) - BWilson 33, Greinke 27, Wainwright 10, Garland 2, Blake 17 (wtf?) - to go with frozen Hart 10. That allows the rest of us to dream at least.

[Judge Jude]

Well, this may be the only time all year, but as of tonight I'm now in 1st place (!)

A silly 19 wins - 7 more than any other team. Halladay and Hanson no surprise, but note the other endgame SP gambles paying off so far. Loney has been a disaster, Hall is terrible, McLouth is shaky, and Cousins has started 3 games all year. But can't complain about the rest of them, that's for sure.


Not sure what to make of these guys, realistically.
1st in AVG, 5th in HR, 2nd in RBI, 4th in R, 9thT in SB.
1st in W, last in SV (0), and 2nd in ERA/Ratio/Ks.

[chancellor]

Harang and Wolf look really good for 2 bucks so far, that's for sure. Anyone have closers who looks like they'll dump?

[Judge Jude]

Yeah, that's the question, isn't it?
Last-place team has a lame-duck Heath Bell, but will he be there all year?
2nd to last is the defending champ and preseason favorite, with Wilson 33. will be tough to obtain at any point.

No one else is terrible so far, so it could be a while. A couple of teams have little SV opps in pen, which helps. If the worst team outside of me is going to get 25 SV (can happen some yrs), I'm not going to chase a closer in-season to try to get 1 pt.

If a non-Halladay P hits the DL, I may sit on the opening awhile with a nice Ws lead and good K numbers, to wait for a guy who looks like an immediate chance for SV. I have won before while punting a category, but it does require the absence of a "super-team" that will close out any 1-pt category efforts. Optimistic we have no such team this year...

[Erik]

*golf clap* for getting Randy Wolf at $1.

[Judge Jude]

ok, have used up 2 of my 6 "free" moves early to dump DL replacements Volstad and Demel, picking up Eduardo Sanchez and Padilla.

Am still in 2nd place - ok, did not see this coming at all - in a race that is 89.5 to 84.5 to 78 to 76 to 68.5 and so on.

Lead in Ws by 8 (29-21) over runnerup, 2nd in K, 3rd in ERA, 4th in Ratio, 11th T in SV but only 4 SV out of 7th.

Lead AVG by 16 pts (.284-.268) over runnerup, 3rd in RBI, 4th in R, 7th in HR, 9th in SB.

Famously/infamously last year swapped, in mid-May, farmhands Posey 10 and Stanton 5 for Halladay 44.

Trade met with mixed reviews in my league and here.
Posey and Stanton soon were recalled and thrived (I had no room for them though), and Halladay rocked of course.
Would have won the pennant but everyone got hurt in Sept (Upton, Reyes, Rollins, etc). The other guy is happy.
Kept Halladay this year and he's a key for maybe this pennant.

With that backdrop, Fielder (another 44) is available. I don't consider him keepable under any circumstances.
This other guy covets speed demon Dee Gordon (5 when he comes up pre-Sept, contract starts when he loses rookie status).

So who else would you give for Fielder? I have (all 5 units) Singleton, Delgado, Taillon, Lyles, Rosario, TRobinson, Tate as well.

With Sandoval out, I lost a key bat, and adding Fielder would allow me to replace Panda with an OF at least, at some point.

[schlesinj]

I would move one of the SP preferably Delgado. You can toss Tate in as the sweetener since he has lost some luster.