minorleagueball...john sickels

[Sour Masher]

Only Mel Ott likely has a chance.

Yeah, because of how young he started and how great he was. However, he played in an era of greats, which is what will make him fall short. Gerhig was still playing in 36, the year Ott turned 27. So was Hornsby, barely, but technically. If you don't wanna count Hornsby, then maybe. I can't think of any other sure things that would be above him at the time. Ruth retired the year before, in 35.

[mjl]

I'm not actually running a database query, but I don't think there are any once you get out of the silly years (e.g. Al Spalding was the active WAR leader since he was 21, Tommy Bond became the active WAR leader after Spalding retired at 23). Remember that Ott was 27 in 1936, and there were a couple other good players still playing then.

[Sour Masher]

I'm not actually running a database query, but I don't think there are any once you get out of the silly years (e.g. Al Spalding was the active WAR leader since he was 21, Tommy Bond became the active WAR leader after Spalding retired at 23). Remember that Ott was 27 in 1936, and there were a couple other good players still playing then.

Yeah, I just posted similar thoughts. Gerhig and Hornsby were both old vets that year on their way out, like Pujols is now. So he would have been 3rd in WAR at best.

[Ken]

I'm not actually running a database query, but I don't think there are any once you get out of the silly years (e.g. Al Spalding was the active WAR leader since he was 21, Tommy Bond became the active WAR leader after Spalding retired at 23). Remember that Ott was 27 in 1936, and there were a couple other good players still playing then.

I am actually running a database query.

Source is BBRef - yearly WAR totals by player can be found here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/ WAR daily data, full history: Batters, Pitchers

However, that was just txt files.

I then:

a) imported into my database
b) combined hitter and pitcher WAR
c) filtered down to the top 2 for each year
e) ordered by age

Result:

Name		Age	Year	WAR	RANK
Al Spalding	21	1872	16.050	1
Al Spalding	22	1873	25.240	1
Bobby Mathews	22	1874	30.410	2
Tommy Bond	22	1878	47.460	2
Tommy Bond	23	1879	61.800	1
Bobby Mathews	23	1875	37.910	2
Al Spalding	23	1874	35.860	1
Bobby Mathews	24	1876	40.330	2
Al Spalding	24	1875	50.070	1
Tommy Bond	24	1880	62.740	1
Tommy Bond	25	1881	62.700	1
Al Spalding	25	1876	60.230	1
Bobby Mathews	25	1877	38.210	2
Al Spalding	26	1877	60.370	1
George Zettlein	26	1871	4.520	1
Tommy Bond	26	1882	62.040	1
Jim McCormick	26	1883	48.810	1
Jim McCormick	27	1884	63.550	1
George Zettlein	27	1872	10.560	2
Al Spalding	27	1878	60.340	1
Bobby Mathews	27	1879	40.230	2
Mike Trout	27	2019	72.510	2
George Zettlein	28	1873	18.290	2
Tommy Bond	28	1884	60.880	2
Jim McCormick	28	1885	66.150	1
Cap Anson	28	1880	24.390	2
Kid Nichols	28	1898	88.880	1
Kid Nichols	29	1899	95.690	1
Jim McCormick	29	1886	73.350	1
Bobby Mathews	29	1881	38.650	2
Rynie Wolters	29	1871	4.370	2
Walter Johnson	29	1917	105.880	2
Walter Johnson	30	1918	117.440	1
Bobby Mathews	30	1882	42.400	2
Jim McCormick	30	1887	76.150	1
Tim Keefe	30	1887	65.160	2
Kid Nichols	30	1900	100.310	1
Ted Williams	30	1949	72.610	2
Ted Williams	31	1950	76.490	1
Stan Musial	31	1952	81.880	2
Albert Pujols	31	2011	86.620	2
Cy Young	31	1898	75.680	2
Kid Nichols	31	1901	107.180	1
Old Hoss Radbourn	31	1886	58.690	2
Tim Keefe	31	1888	74.290	1
Pud Galvin	31	1888	69.060	2
Bobby Mathews	31	1883	46.990	2
Ty Cobb	31	1918	104.310	2
Walter Johnson	31	1919	128.110	1
Ty Cobb	32	1919	109.840	2
Walter Johnson	32	1920	130.960	1
Jimmie Foxx	32	1940	91.420	2
Tim Keefe	32	1889	77.670	1
John Clarkson	32	1894	83.160	2
Cy Young	32	1899	83.950	2
Alex Rodriguez	32	2008	101.200	2
Rickey Henderson	32	1991	84.700	2
Stan Musial	32	1953	89.620	1
Ted Williams	32	1951	83.700	1
Tom Seaver	32	1977	82.280	2
Albert Pujols	32	2012	91.430	2
Albert Pujols	33	2013	92.890	2
Willie Mays	33	1964	109.160	1
Mickey Mantle	33	1965	100.210	2
Jimmie Foxx	33	1941	95.660	2
Mel Ott	33	1942	96.230	1
Ted Williams	33	1952	83.980	1
Stan Musial	33	1954	96.560	1
Rickey Henderson	33	1992	90.330	2
Cal Ripken Jr.	33	1994	81.050	2
Tom Seaver	33	1978	86.850	2
Alex Rodriguez	33	2009	105.350	1
Cy Young	33	1900	91.390	2
Tim Keefe	33	1890	82.040	1
Bobby Mathews	33	1885	56.280	2
Lou Gehrig	33	1936	100.620	2
Ty Cobb	33	1920	113.180	2
Walter Johnson	33	1921	136.250	1
Ty Cobb	34	1921	119.840	2
Walter Johnson	34	1922	141.650	1
Honus Wagner	34	1908	87.340	2
Lou Gehrig	34	1937	108.340	2
Babe Ruth	34	1929	141.670	1
Tim Keefe	34	1891	80.720	1
Cy Young	34	1901	103.950	2
Ed Delahanty	34	1902	68.390	2
Kid Nichols	34	1904	115.720	2
Alex Rodriguez	34	2010	109.500	1
Cal Ripken Jr.	34	1995	84.980	2
Roger Clemens	34	1997	92.870	2
Tom Seaver	34	1979	90.350	2
Rickey Henderson	34	1993	95.370	1
Stan Musial	34	1955	102.660	1
Ted Williams	34	1953	85.970	2
Jimmie Foxx	34	1942	95.810	2
Mel Ott	34	1943	99.070	1
Mickey Mantle	34	1966	103.760	2
Hank Aaron	34	1968	111.590	2
Willie Mays	34	1965	120.380	1
Albert Pujols	34	2014	96.880	1
Adrian Beltre	35	2014	77.570	2
Albert Pujols	35	2015	99.900	2
Alex Rodriguez	35	2011	113.520	1
Hank Aaron	35	1969	119.650	2
Mickey Mantle	35	1967	107.660	2
Willie Mays	35	1966	129.350	1
Mel Ott	35	1944	104.310	1
Joe DiMaggio	35	1950	75.230	2
Arky Vaughan	35	1947	72.400	2
Ted Williams	35	1954	93.720	2
Stan Musial	35	1956	108.210	1
Rickey Henderson	35	1994	98.900	1
Tom Seaver	35	1980	92.190	2
Roger Clemens	35	1998	101.000	2
Cal Ripken Jr.	35	1996	88.780	2
Barry Bonds	35	2000	111.410	1
Ed Delahanty	35	1903	69.680	2
Cy Young	35	1902	113.690	1
Tim Keefe	35	1892	85.810	1
Babe Ruth	35	1930	152.150	1
Rogers Hornsby	35	1931	125.220	2
Lou Gehrig	35	1938	112.670	1
Kid Nichols	35	1905	117.030	2
Honus Wagner	35	1909	96.500	2
Ty Cobb	35	1922	126.510	2
Walter Johnson	35	1923	146.090	1
Ty Cobb	36	1923	132.000	2
Walter Johnson	36	1924	153.540	1
Honus Wagner	36	1910	101.710	2
Kid Nichols	36	1906	116.060	2
George Davis	36	1907	82.340	2
Lou Gehrig	36	1939	112.410	1
Rogers Hornsby	36	1932	125.320	2
Babe Ruth	36	1931	162.470	1
Tim Keefe	36	1893	86.890	1
Cy Young	36	1903	121.950	1
Barry Bonds	36	2001	123.260	1
Alex Rodriguez	36	2012	115.750	1
Roger Clemens	36	1999	103.750	2
Tom Seaver	36	1981	96.540	1
Rickey Henderson	36	1995	101.790	1
Mike Schmidt	36	1986	99.250	2
Stan Musial	36	1957	114.300	2
Ted Williams	36	1955	100.640	2
Arky Vaughan	36	1948	72.920	1
Joe DiMaggio	36	1951	78.110	2
Jimmie Foxx	36	1944	95.510	2
Mel Ott	36	1945	108.830	1
Willie Mays	36	1967	133.700	1
Hank Aaron	36	1970	124.660	2
Albert Pujols	36	2016	101.190	2
Albert Pujols	37	2017	99.340	1
Alex Rodriguez	37	2013	116.070	1
Hank Aaron	37	1971	131.900	2
Willie Mays	37	1968	139.950	1
Jimmie Foxx	37	1945	96.600	2
Mel Ott	37	1946	107.890	1
Ted Williams	37	1956	106.690	2
Stan Musial	37	1958	118.420	2
Mike Schmidt	37	1987	105.360	1
George Brett	37	1990	87.950	2
Carl Yastrzemski	37	1977	89.560	1
Barry Bonds	37	2002	135.030	1
Rickey Henderson	37	1996	103.650	1
Cy Young	37	1904	131.580	1
Roger Connor	37	1895	81.600	2
Cap Anson	37	1889	71.210	2
Babe Ruth	37	1932	170.810	1
Rogers Hornsby	37	1933	126.500	2
Honus Wagner	37	1911	108.260	2
Nap Lajoie	37	1912	100.580	2
Ty Cobb	37	1924	137.410	2
Walter Johnson	37	1925	160.240	1
Ty Cobb	38	1925	143.090	2
Walter Johnson	38	1926	164.020	1
Honus Wagner	38	1912	116.280	1
Babe Ruth	38	1933	177.110	1
Rogers Hornsby	38	1934	126.830	2
Lefty Grove	38	1938	97.920	2
Nap Lajoie	38	1913	105.880	2
Roger Connor	38	1896	84.430	2
Cap Anson	38	1890	76.590	2
Cy Young	38	1905	138.840	1
Rickey Henderson	38	1997	105.250	1
Barry Bonds	38	2003	144.200	1
Roger Clemens	38	2001	113.900	2
Joe Morgan	38	1982	95.780	2
Tom Seaver	38	1983	98.280	2
George Brett	38	1991	88.350	1
Bert Blyleven	38	1989	94.330	2
Mike Schmidt	38	1988	107.190	1
Stan Musial	38	1959	118.700	2
Ted Williams	38	1957	116.350	1
Mel Ott	38	1947	107.800	1
Willie Mays	38	1969	143.020	1
Hank Aaron	38	1972	135.820	2
Carl Yastrzemski	38	1978	91.540	1
Frank Robinson	38	1974	106.270	2
Adrian Beltre	38	2017	93.380	2
Albert Pujols	38	2018	99.850	1
Adrian Beltre	39	2018	95.610	2
Albert Pujols	39	2019	100.280	1
Alex Rodriguez	39	2015	118.960	1
Frank Robinson	39	1975	107.180	2
Hank Aaron	39	1973	140.480	2
Willie Mays	39	1970	148.230	1
Stan Musial	39	1960	120.580	2
Ted Williams	39	1958	120.320	1
Bert Blyleven	39	1990	94.170	1
Mike Schmidt	39	1989	106.810	1
Tom Seaver	39	1984	102.330	1
Joe Morgan	39	1983	98.970	1
Carl Yastrzemski	39	1979	93.880	1
Roger Clemens	39	2002	116.580	2
Rickey Henderson	39	1998	107.540	1
Barry Bonds	39	2004	154.840	1
Roger Connor	39	1897	84.250	2
Cap Anson	39	1891	80.470	2
Nap Lajoie	39	1914	105.970	2
Lefty Grove	39	1939	104.730	2
Rogers Hornsby	39	1935	126.760	2
Babe Ruth	39	1934	182.200	1
Honus Wagner	39	1913	119.190	1
Cy Young	39	1906	140.700	1
Ty Cobb	39	1926	144.760	2
Walter Johnson	39	1927	164.290	1
Ty Cobb	40	1927	149.140	2
Cy Young	40	1907	148.270	1
Rogers Hornsby	40	1936	126.810	1
Babe Ruth	40	1935	182.400	1
Lefty Grove	40	1940	107.280	1
Honus Wagner	40	1914	122.690	1
Nap Lajoie	40	1915	107.650	2
Tris Speaker	40	1928	134.000	2
Cap Anson	40	1892	83.710	2
Barry Bonds	40	2005	155.420	1
Ken Griffey Jr.	40	2010	83.830	2
Rickey Henderson	40	1999	109.390	1
Roger Clemens	40	2003	120.590	2
Carl Yastrzemski	40	1980	94.690	1
Joe Morgan	40	1984	100.560	2
Tom Seaver	40	1985	107.370	1
George Brett	40	1993	88.650	2
Ted Williams	40	1959	120.090	1
Paul Waner	40	1943	72.250	2
Stan Musial	40	1961	123.220	1
Warren Spahn	40	1961	90.200	2
Hank Aaron	40	1974	142.540	1
Willie Mays	40	1971	154.570	1
Frank Robinson	40	1976	107.320	2
Alex Rodriguez	40	2016	117.780	1
Hank Aaron	41	1975	142.600	1
Willie Mays	41	1972	156.410	1
Stan Musial	41	1962	126.840	1
Warren Spahn	41	1962	96.010	2
Luke Appling	41	1948	69.430	2
Ted Williams	41	1960	123.130	1
Bert Blyleven	41	1992	94.420	1
Tom Seaver	41	1986	109.880	1
Carl Yastrzemski	41	1981	95.210	2
Rickey Henderson	41	2000	110.090	2
Roger Clemens	41	2004	125.930	2
Barry Bonds	41	2006	159.430	1
Cap Anson	41	1893	85.990	2
Nap Lajoie	41	1916	107.410	2
Honus Wagner	41	1915	128.300	1
Lefty Grove	41	1941	106.970	1
Rogers Hornsby	41	1937	126.990	1
Cy Young	41	1908	157.880	1
Ty Cobb	41	1928	151.040	1
Cy Young	42	1909	161.380	1
Honus Wagner	42	1916	130.860	1
Eddie Collins	42	1929	123.930	2
Cap Anson	42	1894	88.880	1
Barry Bonds	42	2007	162.800	1
Roger Clemens	42	2005	134.170	2
Greg Maddux	42	2008	106.570	1
Carl Yastrzemski	42	1982	96.550	1
Luke Appling	42	1949	74.430	1
Stan Musial	42	1963	128.150	1
Warren Spahn	42	1963	100.720	2
Willie Mays	42	1973	156.400	1
Hank Aaron	42	1976	143.010	1
Warren Spahn	43	1964	98.920	2
Steve Carlton	43	1988	90.220	2
Roger Clemens	43	2006	137.660	2
Cap Anson	43	1895	90.960	1
Eddie Collins	43	1930	123.960	2
Honus Wagner	43	1917	130.810	1
Cy Young	43	1910	163.640	1
Cy Young	44	1911	163.580	1
Cap Anson	44	1896	93.200	1
Roger Clemens	44	2007	139.200	2
Randy Johnson	45	2009	101.070	2
Ted Lyons	45	1946	70.700	2
Cap Anson	45	1897	94.270	1
Phil Niekro	46	1985	95.070	2
Phil Niekro	48	1987	95.870	2

So Trout is the youngest to be top 2 since 1884

[Ken]

If we limit the data to post 1900 and <= 30

Name		Age	Year	WAR	RANK
Mike Trout	27	2019	72.510	2
Walter Johnson	29	1917	105.880	2

[Ken]

Flipping the question on its head and looking at the highest rank active WAR leaders who were <=27 we get the following top 10 (post 1900)

Name		Age	Year	WAR	RANK
Mike Trout	        27	2019	72.510	2
Walter Johnson	27	1915	87.050	4
Mickey Mantle	27	1959	68.050	5
Mickey Mantle	26	1958	61.440	6
Walter Johnson	26	1914	74.650	6
Babe Ruth	        26	1921	64.110	6
Babe Ruth	        27	1922	70.390	6
Jimmie Foxx	27	1935	62.590	6
Rogers Hornsby	27	1923	63.650	7
C. Mathewson	27	1908	61.100	7

[Ken]

Grouping by age, sorting by highest rank per year, the top performers by age since 1900 have been:

Name		Age	Year	WAR	RANK
Joe Nuxhall	15	1944	-0.160	403
Coonie Blank	16	1909	-0.040	358
Art Bader	17	1904	-0.030	267
Bob Feller	18	1937	4.400	184
Bob Feller	19	1938	9.530	132
Bob Feller	20	1939	19.190	75
Bob Feller	21	1940	29.050	45
Bob Feller	22	1941	37.250	33
Babe Ruth	23	1918	29.930	27
Noodles Hahn	23	1902	30.200	27
Babe Ruth	24	1919	39.830	14
Rogers Hornsby	25	1921	46.900	8
Babe Ruth	25	1920	51.580	8
Mickey Mantle	25	1957	52.760	8
Walter Johnson	26	1914	74.650	6
Babe Ruth	26	1921	64.110	6
Mickey Mantle	26	1958	61.440	6
Mike Trout	27	2019	72.510	2
Walter Johnson	28	1916	97.890	4
Mickey Mantle	28	1960	74.380	4
Walter Johnson	29	1917	105.880	2
Walter Johnson	30	1918	117.440	1

I could go on all night.
See told you this would be fun.

[Ken]

Some stats about 2019

Elvis Luciano has the 186th best WAR for a player of age 19
Juan Soto has the 26th best WAR for a player of age 20
Ronald Acuna Jr. has the 55th best WAR for a player of age 21
Ozzie Albies has the 115th best WAR for a player of age 22
Cody Bellinger has the 74th best WAR for a player of age 23
Carlos Correa has the 87th best WAR for a player of age 24
Francisco Lindor has the 71st best WAR for a player of age 25
Mookie Betts has the 33rd best WAR for a player of age 26
Mike Trout has the 3rd best WAR for a player of age 27
Nolan Arenado has the 109th best WAR for a player of age 28
Giancarlo Stanton has the 139th best WAR for a player of age 29
Chris Sale has the 123rd best WAR for a player of age 30
Clayton Kershaw has the 35th best WAR for a player of age 31
Andrew McCutchen has the 233rd best WAR for a player of age 32
Evan Longoria has the 138th best WAR for a player of age 33
Max Scherzer has the 109th best WAR for a player of age 34
Zack Greinke has the 60th best WAR for a player of age 35
Justin Verlander has the 66th best WAR for a player of age 36
Ian Kinsler has the 138th best WAR for a player of age 37
CC Sabathia has the 93rd best WAR for a player of age 38
Albert Pujols has the 24th best WAR for a player of age 39
Fernando Rodney has the 130th best WAR for a player of age 42
Ichiro Suzuki has the 9th best WAR for a player of age 45

**note, these are accumulated career WAR rankings based on a season of that *specific* age, so Ichiro has the 9th most career WAR of anyone who played in their 45 year old season. That does not include players who retired before 45 (the vast majority)

Trout has 2 WAR more than Ruth at age 27. The problem with the idea of Trout catching Ruth is that Ruth kept putting up big numbers all the way through age 39.

[mjl]

I am actually running a database query.

So what you're saying is you did a bunch of work and I was right anyway. Victory for laziness!

[Ken]

So what you're saying is you did a bunch of work and I was right anyway. Victory for laziness!

Depends how you define work. I enjoyed the exercise, so victory for fun

Nice job on your predictions though!

[Art Vandelay]

Some stats about 2019

Elvis Luciano has the 186th best WAR for a player of age 19
Juan Soto has the 26th best WAR for a player of age 20
Ronald Acuna Jr. has the 55th best WAR for a player of age 21
Ozzie Albies has the 115th best WAR for a player of age 22
Cody Bellinger has the 74th best WAR for a player of age 23
Carlos Correa has the 87th best WAR for a player of age 24
Francisco Lindor has the 71st best WAR for a player of age 25
Mookie Betts has the 33rd best WAR for a player of age 26
Mike Trout has the 3rd best WAR for a player of age 27
Nolan Arenado has the 109th best WAR for a player of age 28
Giancarlo Stanton has the 139th best WAR for a player of age 29
Chris Sale has the 123rd best WAR for a player of age 30
Clayton Kershaw has the 35th best WAR for a player of age 31
Andrew McCutchen has the 233rd best WAR for a player of age 32
Evan Longoria has the 138th best WAR for a player of age 33
Max Scherzer has the 109th best WAR for a player of age 34
Zack Greinke has the 60th best WAR for a player of age 35
Justin Verlander has the 66th best WAR for a player of age 36
Ian Kinsler has the 138th best WAR for a player of age 37
CC Sabathia has the 93rd best WAR for a player of age 38
Albert Pujols has the 24th best WAR for a player of age 39
Fernando Rodney has the 130th best WAR for a player of age 42
Ichiro Suzuki has the 9th best WAR for a player of age 45

**note, these are accumulated career WAR rankings based on a season of that *specific* age, so Ichiro has the 9th most career WAR of anyone who played in their 45 year old season. That does not include players who retired before 45 (the vast majority)

Trout has 2 WAR more than Ruth at age 27. The problem with the idea of Trout catching Ruth is that Ruth kept putting up big numbers all the way through age 39.

Very interesting information. walter johnson was a beast!

why are the war totals so very different between fangraphs and bb-ref?

[harmon]

Noodles Hahn....Reds pitcher was the last to throw a no hitter in the 19th century and first to do it in the 20th.

[Vecmizer]

J.Sickels posted his top 100 prospect list over at the athletic. no surprise, franco #1

I really enjoy John's work but I am wondering if the The Athletic is worth it's subscription price. Anyone have any reviews good or bad??

[Ken]

I really enjoy John's work but I am wondering if the The Athletic is worth it's subscription price. Anyone have any reviews good or bad??

I've heard all good reviews (and I don't have it because I'm cheap)

[joncarlos]

I really enjoy John's work but I am wondering if the The Athletic is worth it's subscription price. Anyone have any reviews good or bad??

I finally caved and bought the subscription when it was on sale for $24 for the year. I've been enjoying it, and it's worth it... but it just means I spend less time using the BP subscription I already paid for.