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Well the nice thing about 2010 was that Dice-K stayed relatively healthy. Of course, if you had him on your team, you probably wished he would stop pitching so much.
2010 stats: 25 starts, 153.2 IP, 9-6, 4.69 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 133 Ks
Indicators: 7.79 K/9, 4.33 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, .284 BABIP, 67.2% strand rate
Skills: 4.05 FIP/4.73 xFIP, 0.73 G/F, 21.6% LD, 45.5% FB, 6.5% HR/FB
So, the FIP basically says that he should have stranded more runners than he did, but the xFIP says that he should have also given up more HRs than he did, so it's basically a wash.
In 2009 his LD% was 23% so I think he just gives up a lot of line drives. His BABIP isn't totally unreasonable given all the fly balls, even considering his LD tendencies.
His fastball velocity was actually up, but it's probably all within the margin of error (91.8 in 2008, 91.1 in 2009, 92.0 last year). His cutter velocity was up a bit more (88.6, 88.3 and then 90.2 last year). His cutter and change were his only pitches with a positive pitch value and he combined to throw them about 22% of the time.
I actually paid $29 for Dice-K after he came over. I think it's fair to say that didn't work out like I planned. If you look at his walk rates, he was OK in June, July and August (under 4) but over 5 in May and September. So the potential is there.
Bill James has him at 11-8, 3.85/1.34, 173 IP. The fangraphs fans are less optimistic at 11-9, 4.46/1.47 in 155 IP. He looks a lot like Phil Hughes with more walks and a slightly friendlier ballpark - good offense behind him, fly ball pitcher, K rate in the high 7s, throws a lot of pitches. Health is a big concern.
I'm inclined to say he'll be in between the 2 projections, maybe 170 IP but more like a 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and around 150 Ks.
2010 stats: 25 starts, 153.2 IP, 9-6, 4.69 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 133 Ks
Indicators: 7.79 K/9, 4.33 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, .284 BABIP, 67.2% strand rate
Skills: 4.05 FIP/4.73 xFIP, 0.73 G/F, 21.6% LD, 45.5% FB, 6.5% HR/FB
So, the FIP basically says that he should have stranded more runners than he did, but the xFIP says that he should have also given up more HRs than he did, so it's basically a wash.
In 2009 his LD% was 23% so I think he just gives up a lot of line drives. His BABIP isn't totally unreasonable given all the fly balls, even considering his LD tendencies.
His fastball velocity was actually up, but it's probably all within the margin of error (91.8 in 2008, 91.1 in 2009, 92.0 last year). His cutter velocity was up a bit more (88.6, 88.3 and then 90.2 last year). His cutter and change were his only pitches with a positive pitch value and he combined to throw them about 22% of the time.
I actually paid $29 for Dice-K after he came over. I think it's fair to say that didn't work out like I planned. If you look at his walk rates, he was OK in June, July and August (under 4) but over 5 in May and September. So the potential is there.
Bill James has him at 11-8, 3.85/1.34, 173 IP. The fangraphs fans are less optimistic at 11-9, 4.46/1.47 in 155 IP. He looks a lot like Phil Hughes with more walks and a slightly friendlier ballpark - good offense behind him, fly ball pitcher, K rate in the high 7s, throws a lot of pitches. Health is a big concern.
I'm inclined to say he'll be in between the 2 projections, maybe 170 IP but more like a 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and around 150 Ks.