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Through 3 starts, Beckett's K/9 and velocity are down this year. But if you look at his game-by-game velocity, it actually got better in his 3rd game, and he had 7 Ks and 1 walk against Texas.
Here's his velocity chart: http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/510_P_FA_20120418.png
I'm still a little skeptical, but if Beckett's owner is panicky over the Red Sox' disastrous pitching staff, it might be a buy-low opportunity. Beckett isn't an ace any more, and his GB% dropped from 2010 to 2011. But he had a 3.57/3.58 FIP/xFIP last year and does have a good offense behind him, if not a good bullpen.
Since his epic 5-HR game against the Tigers, Beckett has only allowed 1 HR on 22 fly balls, and Tex/TB aren't bad hitting teams.
I can see him returning to a $20-$22 pace the rest of the way.
Here's his velocity chart: http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/510_P_FA_20120418.png
I'm still a little skeptical, but if Beckett's owner is panicky over the Red Sox' disastrous pitching staff, it might be a buy-low opportunity. Beckett isn't an ace any more, and his GB% dropped from 2010 to 2011. But he had a 3.57/3.58 FIP/xFIP last year and does have a good offense behind him, if not a good bullpen.
Since his epic 5-HR game against the Tigers, Beckett has only allowed 1 HR on 22 fly balls, and Tex/TB aren't bad hitting teams.
I can see him returning to a $20-$22 pace the rest of the way.