Effect of the new rules on SBs in 2023

[rhd]

This is from CBS:

Between 2019, the last full year before any minor-league level adopted the new pickoff rules soon to be introduced to the majors, and 2022, the first full year that every level had them, stolen bases attempts increased from 2.23 to 2.83 per game. The rate of success on those attempts improved from 68 to 77 percent.

If this is true, then if MLB experiences the same increases in SB attempts and success rate, by my quick math (which might be incorrect) there would about 53 more SB per team in 2023. The average SB/team in 2022 was 82.867 so an increase of about 53 would be about a 65% increase! And this is not taking into consideration the bases will be bigger and the distance between bases will be slightly less.

It's hard for me to believe that SBs will increase by this much but it's looking likely that they will increase dramatically. Re: impact on roto, I hadnt planned to change my valuation of players bases on these rules changes but I may need to rethink this. It stands to reason that most of the high SB players should see their SB totals increase by a lot. I think the big uncertainty will be among the guys w near average speed who havent run a lot in the past but now will be inclined to run much more. E.g., Alex Verdugo was said to have average speed on his 2019 BA Scouting Report. In his 2 full MLB seasons had SB totals of 6 and 1 respectively. Can we expect him to have 10-15 SBs or so in 2023? Or Ian Happ who was said to have above average speed in a 2017 report but has never run very much (9 SBs each of the last 2 years). Can we expect 15-20 SBs in 2023? Or how about someone like Alex Bregman who was said to have above-average speed on his scouting report 7 years ago and who had moderately good SB totals his 1st 2 years (17 and 10) but hasnt run much since 2018, but is still will be only 29 y/o on opening day. Does he start to run again like his 1st 2 years?

With all of the usual preparation that I have to do, I dont see myself having time to evaluate each player as whether he's likely to run more or not. If only we knew which of these moderate speed guys were going to run a lot more.

[madducks]

I'm keeping Esteury Ruiz because of this. And I don't even know if he can hit MLB pitching or if he even has a starting gig. He's a huge lottery ticket IMO. But if we start seeing players with 60+ stolen bases again, he could be one of them.

[Todd Zola]

My take is there is a group of players who are so adept at stealing the changes won't matter, so I'm not so sure "It stands to reason that most of the high SB players should see their SB totals increase by a lot."
Then there is a group at the other end who aren't going to run much, regardless.
The question area is the bubble in the middle. Everyone will have a different notion of how far to extend on either end, and how much of an increase to attribute to different ends of the bubble.
The wild card is some teams will be more aggressive than others, so managerial tendencies is another factor muddying the waters.

[Moonlight J]

wrote this in September at Rotowire - https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/ar...uckle-up-66435


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[Big Tymer]

My take is there is a group of players who are so adept at stealing the changes won't matter, so I'm not so sure "It stands to reason that most of the high SB players should see their SB totals increase by a lot."
Then there is a group at the other end who aren't going to run much, regardless.
The question area is the bubble in the middle. Everyone will have a different notion of how far to extend on either end, and how much of an increase to attribute to different ends of the bubble.
The wild card is some teams will be more aggressive than others, so managerial tendencies is another factor muddying the waters.

Well said Todd! Definitely see some teams taking advantage of this more than others as a lot will still come down to managerial propensity to give the green light.