2K23: Shohei Ohtani

[Gregg]

What are you willing to pay for Ohtani at this years auction?

Our league is a 12 team AL Only 5x5 with OBP instead of ave. $260 budget. We have daily moves. He takes one roster spot. If he gets traded out of the league in season you get his stats for the rest of the year. We do have an in season salary cap that starts at $300. Prospects cannot be traded until after the All Star break. These two things make it a challenge to buy and trade.

I am thinking going to 64 might make sense. I am not sure that gets it done.

What would you pay?

[Todd Zola]

What happens on days he pitches? Do you choose to get his hitter or pitcher stats, but not both?

[Big Tymer]

I am keeping him at $60 in a 12-team daily moves AL-only and $52 in a 18-team mixed with moves M and Fri. Consider both bargains. In a daily moves league he is worth north of $70 imo.

Now, your league being a 12-team mixed is shallower. One could argue that makes Ohtani more valuable since a stars and scrubs approach is much more viable.

[Gregg]

What happens on days he pitches? Do you choose to get his hitter or pitcher stats, but not both?

We do not get both. He is either in a pitching slot or our UT slot. OF if/when he qualifies (5 games in season, 20 games pre season).

[Gregg]

I am keeping him at $60 in a 12-team daily moves AL-only and $52 in a 18-team mixed with moves M and Fri. Consider both bargains. In a daily moves league he is worth north of $70 imo.

Now, your league being a 12-team mixed is shallower. One could argue that makes Ohtani more valuable since a stars and scrubs approach is much more viable.

It is an Only league. I just corrected it. Not sure how I missed that.

[madducks]

I say that whatever price that a top player goes for in your league you have to double the price. Keep in mind though if Ohtani gets hurt you take a hit to both the hitting and the pitching categories. Whereas if you spread the money evenly among another star pitcher and star hitter you lower your risk and don't take as big of a hit if one guy gets injured.

[Big Tymer]

It is an Only league. I just corrected it. Not sure how I missed that.

So similar to my setup. All I can say is at auction last year I was prepared to bid him to $70. Got him at $60 and was happy. All it takes is 2 owners who want him and I can easily see him going for over $70. Ohtani was a big reason I won my AL last year so happily running it back.

[Todd Zola]

We do not get both. He is either in a pitching slot or our UT slot. OF if/when he qualifies (5 games in season, 20 games pre season).

So back of the envelope math, you get all of his pitching stats and about 80% of his batting stats. He's a $22-$25 pitcher and a $35-$40 hitter in OBP leagues. Using the higher end, that's $57, without inflation.

There are two issues with simplifying it like this. I used the high end, the low end (which are essentially my numbers) is around $50.

The other issue is a good chance your replacement level for the batter is better than what was used to get Ohtani's initial projected earnings, so he'll earn less than the expected $35-$40.

There is no exact number, but putting everything together, something in the low to mid $50s is what my sheet would say, then there's inflation. 20% gets us to your $64, so I think we're at least on the same page.

[Gregg]

Thanks to all who responded.

Lots of pitching will be kept. Trying to figure out how to keep my 53 Gerrit Cole and be a player for Ohtani.

[virgonomic]

I love the mathematical reasoning in this thread.

[Big Tymer]

I love the mathematical reasoning in this thread.

Agreed - Todd crushed it with that valuation breakdown!

[Ken]

So back of the envelope math, you get all of his pitching stats and about 80% of his batting stats. He's a $22-$25 pitcher and a $35-$40 hitter in OBP leagues. Using the higher end, that's $57, without inflation.

There are two issues with simplifying it like this. I used the high end, the low end (which are essentially my numbers) is around $50.

The other issue is a good chance your replacement level for the batter is better than what was used to get Ohtani's initial projected earnings, so he'll earn less than the expected $35-$40.

There is no exact number, but putting everything together, something in the low to mid $50s is what my sheet would say, then there's inflation. 20% gets us to your $64, so I think we're at least on the same page.

What value, if any, is placed on having an extra roster spot in a daily league? Your Ohtani(pitcher) + Ohtani(hitter) makes sense but also leaves out that you get both in 1 roster spot.

It feels intuitively like that has a significant amount of value since you can accumulate the counting stats of that extra player if your starter has an off day or a bad matchup.

I guess this also depends on # of teams and # of bench spots.

[Todd Zola]

What value, if any, is placed on having an extra roster spot in a daily league? Your Ohtani(pitcher) + Ohtani(hitter) makes sense but also leaves out that you get both in 1 roster spot. It feels intuitively like that has a significant amount of value since you can accumulate the counting stats of that extra player if your starter has an off day or a bad matchup. I guess this also depends on # of teams and # of bench spots.

Yeah, there are a couple of next level considerations ignored by the quick math. There's essentially having Ohtani-the pitcher on reserve when he's active as a better. There is not having to spend as much in-season assets on churn and burn type spot starters. There's also the notion of replacement. I'm not sure he needs to be charged twice for replacement, which would make his pitching estimated earnings a little light.
I don't know how to put a number on it, but sure, it should be a factor when bidding/drafting.