Trade Fransisco Alvarez for Kirk and a pick?

[Sour Masher]

The Kirk owner offered Kirk $5 and his first round FYPD pick for my Alvarez. I said yes, but he then retracted the offer. Now he is offering Kirk and his 2nd round pick, pick 18. I have my eye on some guys who may be there at 11 that will not be there at 18, so I'm inclined to pass. But I am posting it to make sure this isn't me just being kneejerk to the bait and switch.

I don't think he did it on purpose, but here is what he said after I asked him what he would want for his first round fypd pick: "I'm not sure you would do this, and I'm not really enthused by it either, but I was thinking I could give you pick 11 and Kirk for Alvarez?". He owned that he at least semi-proposed the deal, but when I said yes, he said he didn't want to do that, and now, a day later, he is offering pick 18 with Kirk instead. Actually, he is using weaselly language again, saying "I would give Kirk and my second round pick for Alvarez, maybe"; So, even if I say yes again, he may pull it and offer his 3rd. Honestly, I'm being salty, but I really don't think it is a tactic as much as wishy-washy cold feet (we've been in this league together over 20 years, and he is more of a "I can't decide" guy, not a schemer).

I don't mind if this post leads to a more general discussion of this sort of thing, but I also would like advice on the deal independent of how we got to this offer. Part of me thinks Kirk can be as good as Alvarez offensively. But a bigger part of me thinks Kirk will always splits ABs and his second half power tank scares me.

[Sour Masher]

<p>
I did the deal and then dealt Kirk and pick 15 for Melendez and pick 8. So, I ended up dealing Alvarez and pick 15 for Melenedez and picks 8 and 18. Not bad short term. Long term, if Alvarez ends up the top fantasty catcher, I will regret it, but the field is deepening, so I doubt I miss him too much.</p>

[Sour Masher]

<p>
I now have an owner coming hard for both Varsho and Melendez, even though this is a 1 catcher league. He is offering more than fair value, but the problem is that I have a stacked team already, and there would be no way for me to get back the lost production at catcher. All the other top catchers are keepers that would would not be able to get without overpaying. He is obstinate and will not make an offer for just one of my catchers. He plans on starting Varsho in the OF. At what point, if ever, do you make a deal where you are getting more value but losing in overall production? He is offering Nimmo, Keibert Ruiz, Manzardo and pick 13 for Varsho and Melendez, which seems more than fair, but my pair of catchers are way better than Ruiz, who is better than any of the catchers available in the auction. I think for most teams, this deal would make sense, but because my team is so stacked already, my logic is that it does not make sense for me to trade away both top 5 catchers, even if I am getting more &quot;value&quot; in the deal, as there is no way for me to get that productin back. I don&#39;t see his logic for needing both and refusing to deal for one of my catchers and he doesn&#39;t see my position of not wanting to deal both.</p>

[Sour Masher]

So, the offer is now Nimmo $6, Manzardo, and picks 13, 24, and 25 for Varsho $5 (due extension), Melendez $5, and pick 70. I am tempted, but it leaves me with no catcher and no catchers of merit in the auction. The only reason I am considering it is that the team keeping a pricey Realmuto will not be a playoff team and I have dealt with him a lot, so I am confident that I can get Realmuto eventually, but that might not be until July. It also frees up a spot for me to keep Jon Gray at $6, who I don't currently have room for.

[Sour Masher]

I ended up doing that deal and then trading Jon Gray for William Contreras, who I really like this year and beyond. So, all told, I dealt Daulton Varsho $5, Jon Gray $6, and Francisco Alvarez for William Contreras $5, Brandon Nimmo $6, Kyle Manzardo, and fypd picks 13, 24, and 25. Both Varsho and Gray are due extensions (I would have extended Varsho, but not Gray). Contreras and Nimmo are not. I will mist Varsho as maybe the best catcher, but I think Contreras has a shot at finishing as a top 5 guy himself. I picked up a lot of prospect value.

A question I am debating now: The guy who has Realmuto is a huge Brewers fan and would deal him for Conteras. But he costs a lot more, so I am not sure I want to do that. Am I rating Contreras too high? If I have the funds and I'm trying to win, should I do the deal, or should I use the money in the auction to address me death of pitching? My offensive is absurdly good already, but I am keeping 12 hitters and only 3 arms. I will need a LOT of pitching in the auction.

[Gregg]

I ended up doing that deal and then trading Jon Gray for William Contreras, who I really like this year and beyond. So, all told, I dealt Daulton Varsho $5, Jon Gray $6, and Francisco Alvarez for William Contreras $5, Brandon Nimmo $6, Kyle Manzardo, and fypd picks 13, 24, and 25. Both Varsho and Gray are due extensions (I would have extended Varsho, but not Gray). Contreras and Nimmo are not. I will mist Varsho as maybe the best catcher, but I think Contreras has a shot at finishing as a top 5 guy himself. I picked up a lot of prospect value.

A question I am debating now: The guy who has Realmuto is a huge Brewers fan and would deal him for Conteras. But he costs a lot more, so I am not sure I want to do that. Am I rating Contreras too high? If I have the funds and I'm trying to win, should I do the deal, or should I use the money in the auction to address me death of pitching? My offensive is absurdly good already, but I am keeping 12 hitters and only 3 arms. I will need a LOT of pitching in the auction.

Why would you not wait until after the auction to deal for Realmuto? You get the money for auction and the superior catcher for the season.

[Sour Masher]

Why would you not wait until after the auction to deal for Realmuto? You get the money for auction and the superior catcher for the season.

Yeah, I initially did not realize how much upside Contreras has. Looking deeper, he has really grown on me. So, that is what I will do. I am confident I can get that done, eventually, so no rush to do it now. I don't think Contreras crashes and burns. He may end up a top 5 catcher. My worry was that I think with Harper out, they are going to lean on Realmuto a lot early, playing him at DH when he has days off catching and giving him a total green light. I wanted that early production and I worried it would increase his price. If I wait, he won't do that deal 1 for 1 early in the season, as he has gotten grief for dumping early last year and he seems committed to competing, or trying to, for a good portion of the season this year.

[Teenwolf]

I think speculating on catchers getting 550 PA is incredibly hard. Most will end up with 450-500 max, even the studs.

The only near guarantee for 600+ PA at catcher in '23 is Varsho, given that he's become an elite defensive OF and looks likely done with catching. Also, Varsho's home stadium and lineup are greatly improved, and he's just entered his prime at 26. So it's a bummer you had to give him up, as I think he was clearly the top of the list, IMO. Contreras has big defensive question marks, so I hesitate to invest so highly in him. It's good that you've got the Contreras/Realmuto trade in the back of your mind, but if anything goes wrong with Contreras this year, that might screw up those plans.

The Manzardo addition is nice, and the added picks are too, but I would have stuck with Varsho/Melendez, with both having OF eligibility, would've created a ton of flexibility. Now you need to roster a backup catcher, presumably, limiting flexibility even more.

I don't hate it, but I do feel like the risk factor went up a lot. Shore up that risk by honing in on the minor league draft and nailing those high draft picks.

[Sour Masher]

I hear you on Varsho. That was tough, although, I would have had to use him or Meledenez in the OF and I got Nimmo in the deals, who I think will do just as well as Varsho in my format. You are probably right that Varsho stays in the line up against weaker lefties, given his defense, but his splits suggest he should sit against lefites, so I think he will at least get breathers agaisnt tough ones. He has a .553 OPS against lefites.

I ended up swapping Contreras and picks 8 and 25 for Kirk, and picks 14 and 15. Now, all told, I dealt Daulton Varsho $5, Jon Gray $6, and Francisco Alvarez for Alejandro Kirk $5, Brandon Nimmo $6, Kyle Manzardo, and fypd picks 13, 14, 18, and 24. I do plan on using that pick equity to improve in the majors. I'm working on dealing Manzardo or some of the picks to get Bautista as a minor elg "free" closer.