How do you leverage expected stats?

[Moonlight J]

Looking at Andres Gimenez this morning:

PITCH GROUP	BA	xBA	SLG	xSLG
Breaking balls	.315	.262	.451	.378
Offspeed	.395	.300	.679	.467

Steamer projecting .267/.331/.436 with 19 homers and 17 steals. That's a 30 point drop in batting average, but a surge in homers? I loved this guy coming into last year and drafted him in many places, but he currently has an ADP of 86 with a range of 54 to 114 as the 7th second baseman off the board.

Thoughts?

[harmon]

A couple of things are factoring in to his early ADP.

2B is a weak offensive group for 2023 and there's about a 40 pick dropoff between him and the next guy (Gleyber).

LH hitters with big differences in xBA may be bigger beneficiaries of the shift restrictions. Steamer's .267 feels conservative.

I'm expecting a drop overall in his numbers from a hugely successful 2022 but he should still be quite productive. The Guardians lineup is maturing and the addition of Bell could be meaningful if he rebounds.