Brandon Nimmo, Brandon Pfaadt and picks for Riley Greene

[Sour Masher]

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The trade: my Nimmo $4, Pfaadt, and prospect draft picks 15 and 24 for his Riley Greene $5.</p>
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This is in a 14 team keeper points league, so Nimmo is really good, because all those walks count for a point. I have the Nimmo side and I think Greene has the potential to be the best player int he deal by a good bit, so that is usually a no brainer for me in a league this size. Still, Nimmo is a long time favorite in this format for me and he finally stayed healthy last year. I think if he gets a full season of ABs again this year, he likely outscores Greene this year, but I also think, given his history, the chances of him staying healthy are slim. Both Nimmo and Greene don&#39;t have to be extended until after the season. Another factor is that our pts system favors high K arms, as Ks are worth 2pts each, so pfaadt gets a boost in this set up. Still, I keep going back to Greene being the best player in the deal. I originally offerred my Nimmo and the picks, but he said no and counters with Pfaadt added. He won&#39;t reduce the ask. Should I pay up or pass? I won the title last year and I am looking for the repeat.</p>

[Sour Masher]

It feels like a big overpay based on a gamble/hunch Greene takes a big step forward. I feel the safer play is to pass, as Nimmo could easily outscore Greene this year and maybe even the next few years, and I really, really like Pfaadt in this format a lot (wins are devalued, Ks are valued higher). Still, Greene has a top 20 pick ceiling, which has me tempted.

[Sour Masher]

He lowered the ask to Nimmo, Pfaadt, and picks 15 and 43.

[Todd Zola]

Who do you think he really wants in the deal? Is this just a souped up means of dealing for Pfaadt? I mean, you only deal Greene if you are rebuilding, and if that's the case, you don't ask for Nimmo in return. If Pfaadt is the real target, then you can possibly fortify your chances to win this season.

Having said that, Greene is intriguing and Nimmo has played at least 140 games only twice, but including the draft picks seems a bit excessive.

[Sour Masher]

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Gracias for the feedback, FunkLord. Your projections tipped me over--even in my pts league set up, you have Greene ahead of Nimmo, because, as you point out, he is pretty likely to miss some games. The final deal is Nimmo, Pfaadt, and picks 24 and 43. I was not going to use pick 43 anyway, and losing pick 24 just means I will keep Gleider Figuereo or Max Muncy instead of cutting them for the pick. You are right that he is rebuilding, but he insisted on Nimmo, who he likes a lot and who he thinks he can flip in-season for a prospect once he gets some use out of him and others realize he is better than their CFer (we have three specific OF spots, plus two UTIL OFers). Yes, you are right that Pfaadt was his main target, but I couldn&#39;t talk him down anymore, and I am a sucker for a former blue chipper.</p>

[madducks]

At the risk of oversimplifying, no I wouldn't give up 4 lottery tickets for 1 lottery ticket.