Fishing Deep Water

[Big Tymer]

I am using Draft Champions at NFC. Since 14 December there are only two drafts and the ADP is #273. Still, the trend is up.


What are your takes on Garrett Whitlock and Hayden Wesneski, the other two who have moved above #300?

So Whitlock went to Providence HS in Lilburn, GA where my son goes and plays baseball so I’m not entirely objective. But I do like his stuff a lot though really not sure if it will play as a SP. With Hayden, he needs an injury or 2 before he’ll get a spot it seems. So for me would come down to the format. Hayden is going a lot later in the DC I’m in right now (26th round for Hayden vs 20th for Whitlock) and at that spread I’d prefer Hayden probably. But at equal weights, I’d rather have Whitlock I think who could still be lights out in the pen if SP doesn’t work out.

[onejayhawk]

I pulled most of these names from Jeff Zimmerman's Deep League Starting Pitchers articles at FanGraphs. That means that in very early NFBC rankings they were over 300. By early December that had changed. When I chanced across the thread again, I decided to see who was still moving.

Below are ADP scores from Oct-Nov and since 1 February.

First	Last	Oct-Nov	Feb	Move
Braxton	Garrett	320	363	-43
Hayden	Wesneski	280	333	-53
Justin	Steele	298	271	27
Brayan	Bello	322	330	-8
Garrett	Whitlock	285	281	4
David	Peterson	343	390	-47
Luis	Ortiz	369	413	-44
Alex	Wood	372	341	31
José	Suarez	374	356	18
DL	Hall	390	446	-56
Ryne	Nelson	421	433	-12
Daniel	Espino	588	613	-25
Hunter	Brown	268	258	10
Nate	Pearson	517	570	-53

[virgonomic]

Here are the guys that jump out at me:

Brayan Bello - was a top prospect, could still excel.

David Peterson - pitched well but was on a yo-yo. Could be serviceable with an extended rotation spot.

Jhoan Duran - 11.8 K/9. A lock to hit double digit saves, could get 20+.

Nate Pearson - likely a MR, hard to see him making an impact in the rotation in 2023.

[Gregg]

Justin Steele is the one that I want. He will be top 3 or 4 in the Cubs rotation He struck out 126 in 119 innings with a 3.18 era (3.20 FIP) before a back issue shut him down. With the Cubs out of it they decided not to bring him back.

I will not get a chance on him as he is being kept at $10. in our NL only.

Fan Graphs has his value at $10. 271 ADP and 42 nd pitcher.

[onejayhawk]

Here are the guys that jump out at me:

Brayan Bello - was a top prospect, could still excel.

David Peterson - pitched well but was on a yo-yo. Could be serviceable with an extended rotation spot.

Jhoan Duran - 11.8 K/9. A lock to hit double digit saves, could get 20+.

Nate Pearson - likely a MR, hard to see him making an impact in the rotation in 2023.

Bello and Whitlock look to have an easy early schedule, according to Nick Pollack at PitcherList

https://www.pitcherlist.com/top-300-fantasy-baseball-starting-pitchers-for-2023/

Nick puts Justin Steele last in his top 100 and has cautionary words.

100. Justin Steele (CHC) – There’s a touch of hype surrounding Steele as his 21.4% hard contact rate ranked 14th best among all starting pitchers as he boasted a solid 25% K rate and 3.18 ERA in 119 innings for the Cubs. I’m not sure I’m buying into it, sadly. The slider is excellent – batters returned just a .136 BAA on it with just 14.5% hard contact allowed – and maybe if he pulls a Cease and bumps its 30% usage to over 40%, there could be something here. However, the four-seamer and its cut action seem too…pedestrian for my liking. I’ve seen days where he’s able to earn a fair amount of whiffs on the pitch, and others where it seemingly floats into the zone like a bubble hitting a wall. There just isn’t enough meat on the bone at 92 mph and unless he finds another gear for the pitch, I see Steele’s near 10% walk rate keeping that high WHIP afloat as he fails to find enough redeeming qualities to earn a spot on your squad.

That said, several of these guys fall out of the top 100. Wood, Peterson, Nelson, Hall, and B Garrett all fall in the 101 - 124 range.

Worth mention on this subject is an article featuring 25 SP to stash. They are grouped by callup date.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/top-25-starting-pitchers-to-stash/