Is Jacob DeGrom a Hall of Famer?

[revo]

Given the Rangers signing of DeGrom to a 5yr mega-deal, what better time to ask this question.

DeGrom’s career accomplishments:

82-57
1326 IP
2.52 ERA (47th all time)
0.998 WHIP (2nd all time)
1607 Ks
10.91 K/9 (3rd all time)
303 BBs
155 ERA+ (5th all time)
5.30 K/BB ratio
43.8 career WAR
2014 Rookie of the Year
2018 & 2019 NL Cy Young Award winner

[revo]

I think he's a HOFer even if he never throws another pitch.

[Sour Masher]

<p>
I think he needs 2-3 great seasons. There is no doubt he is a better pitcher than many in the HOF right now, but I can&#39;t find a precedent for anyone with counting stats that low. He has less IP than any starting pitcher HOFer by a lot. Koufax is always the measuring stick for bright flames that burnt out too quickly, and he is not close to his counting stats yet. He would have a strong contingent of support and a strong case right now, but I think he needs at least 2-3 more great years to be certain to get in. He only has 1300 IP in his career, 1k less than Koufax.</p>

[the heat]

I think he's a HOFer even if he never throws another pitch.

He needs another year to qualify.

He's had what 4 full seasons, not counting 2020?
I think he needs a couple more elite seasons under his belt, whether they be full or at least 1/2 seasons for me.

[revo]

He needs another year to qualify. He's had what 4 full seasons, not counting 2020? I think he needs a couple more elite seasons under his belt, whether they be full or at least 1/2 seasons for me.

That's true, he does need 10+ years in the majors. But he does have 6 full seasons, not including 2020.
He will need a few more good to great seasons to make it. I wonder if his choice of Texas, which hasn't been kind to starting pitchers over the years, will affect that.

[Ken]

I wonder if his choice of Texas, which hasn't been kind to starting pitchers over the years, will affect that.

I doubt the previous ballpark has any impact on DeGrom

[revo]

I doubt the previous ballpark has any impact on DeGrom

That's true, the new stadium is just a couple of years old. Then I guess it's just the Texas Rangers' pitching philosophy, lol.
Globe Life Field still is a far cry from CitiField in terms of pitching park factors.

[Ken]

That's true, the new stadium is just a couple of years old. Then I guess it's just the Texas Rangers' pitching philosophy, lol.
Globe Life Field still is a far cry from CitiField in terms of pitching park factors.

Pretty sure there was a strong correlation between the pitching environment and the "philosophy". Texas wasn't signing any significant pitchers in the previous ballpark era because no one wanted to pitch in that bandbox.

The new stadium isn't a "far cry" from Citi Field from the data I've seen. They haven't played that differently actually - a 99 park factor vs a 96 from 2020-2022. (Texas was a 109 the previous 3 years in the old park - that's what you are thinking of I bet)

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2022&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=yes

[revo]

ESPN has the park factor for runs scored as 1.037 for Texas (10th or 30) and 0.872 for NYM (29th of 30)

[Ken]

ESPN has the park factor for runs scored as 1.037 for Texas (10th or 30) and 0.872 for NYM (29th of 30)

ewwww, espn? I don't trust espn for any remotely advanced stats. Unless they can read it off a boxscore, it's useless.

ESPN's site for park factors has "null" for the park names in 2022.

baseballsavant is a much better source IMO

[Gregg]

I would say probably with 4 more great seasons. Maybe 3 if truly excellent.

[revo]

ewwww, espn? I don't trust espn for any remotely advanced stats. Unless they can read it off a boxscore, it's useless. ESPN's site for park factors has "null" for the park names in 2022. baseballsavant is a much better source IMO

They've been doing park factors since we were in diapers

[Ken]

They've been doing park factors since we were in diapers

McDonalds has been making food for a long time, but I wouldn't eat there provided a choice.

[Ken]

McDonalds has been making food for a long time, but I wouldn't eat there provided a choice.

Browsing several other sources, Texas is now pretty close to a neutral park, if not slightly pitcher friendly. If a source (i.e. espn) is saying it's extremely hitter friendly, that looks like the outlier data point that should be scrutinized.

[Todd Zola]

Browsing several other sources, Texas is now pretty close to a neutral park, if not slightly pitcher friendly. If a source (i.e. espn) is saying it's extremely hitter friendly, that looks like the outlier data point that should be scrutinized.

Park factors are best expressed as three-year averages. ESPN uses the same formula as Bill James Handbook, which is the industry standard, though there is some intriguing work being done involving Statcast data, but it's still a work in progress.

The 2022 run index for GLF is 1.04. In 2021 it was 0.97. I ignore all 2020 factors since the geographical schedule skews things.

Using the past two seasons, we're 100.5, essentially neutral.