Results 1 to 10 of 10

Thread: 2024 Election Thread

  1. #1
    Administrator revo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    fuggedabboutit
    Posts
    25,039

    2024 Election Thread

    Former Guy is gunning to become Current Guy again, but the realities of the midterm election fiasco will probably doom that chance. As one commentator said about the midterms, the GOP found out the hard way that voters will crawl through glass to vote against him and his proxies.

    It doesn't take a PoliSci major to see that there's no path for Former Guy to win again. They had high inflation, an economy that may be in recession, high gas prices, an unpopular president, a major war AND historical precedence on their side and while they did retake the house -- where gerrymandered districts almost guaranteed that would happen -- the statewide races were disastrous. MAGA GOP candidates ran 5%-6% behind '20 outcomes, and virtually everyone Former Guy touched was walloped. This was the worst midterm showing by the party out of power in two decades, and they can thank the hatred of Former Guy and abortion for that. While they can't change their stance on abortion, they can punt Former Guy.

    Nevertheless, Former Guy announced his low energy bid on Tuesday, likely because he can now use any legal action against him as a political attack but regardless, the bloom is off the rose. A post-election poll still had him in front with a plurality and not majority, but DeSantis has surged up to 35%, and it's hard to believe the GOP, which has to know backing Former Guy again will be a losing proposition, won't have many horses in the race.

    Already, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson has said he's seriously thinking about running and will anounce his decision in January, and you can be sure Mike Pence will run.

    If the GOP was smart, they would promote DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin -- who both could easily win -- and back off the disaster that is The Former Guy. But who said they're smart?

  2. #2
    All Star Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    8,800
    If a bunch of Republicans run for 2024, aren't they going to effectively hand the nomination to Trump again?
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  3. #3
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Fantasyland
    Posts
    9,928
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
    If a bunch of Republicans run for 2024, aren't they going to effectively hand the nomination to Trump again?
    That is a risk, and we have all underestimated Trump before, but I tend to agree wth Revo here that the GOP knows Trump is not their future, and the signs are there of his fervent following starting to subside. To me, DeSantis is the clear frontrunner at the moment, and it will be very interesting to see how Trump's attempts to put down DeSantis will play with the red state masses. We should be able to tell soon if the name calling and attacks work this time or if that old song and dance has stopped working. I think/hope it has.

  4. #4
    Administrator revo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    fuggedabboutit
    Posts
    25,039
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
    If a bunch of Republicans run for 2024, aren't they going to effectively hand the nomination to Trump again?
    Not sure, but one commentator said that this early announcement would likely scare off the unlikely candidates (like Rubio) and would instead create a situation where only the ones who know they can beat him would enter. So according to this commentator's thinking, a big field would be better for Trump, a small field worse.

    That said, Dems clearly want a big field, lol.

    And the name calling already has started with the ridiculous Ron DeSanctimonious and Young Kin

  5. #5
    All Star GwynnInTheHall's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Old Pueblo
    Posts
    9,098
    What do you imagine the GOP will offer TFG if he narrowly is defeated for the nomination, NOT to run 3rd party?
    Because it's not so much that Trump can't lose the primary, but rather that he'll hold the GOP hostage with his sizable base if he isn't the nominee.
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    That is a risk, and we have all underestimated Trump before, but I tend to agree wth Revo here that the GOP knows Trump is not their future, and the signs are there of his fervent following starting to subside. To me, DeSantis is the clear frontrunner at the moment, and it will be very interesting to see how Trump's attempts to put down DeSantis will play with the red state masses. We should be able to tell soon if the name calling and attacks work this time or if that old song and dance has stopped working. I think/hope it has.
    While I agree DeSantis is the frontrunner right now, I suspect the calculus will get very complicated if it comes down to Trump/DeSantis/Some Random GOP Moderate in the primary. Given the success Democrats had voting in primaries for candidates they deemed more likely to lose, I'd hardly be surprised if they try the same strategy in 2024. Just spitballing, but I suspect the Dems would not want to face a moderate, especially if Biden is still the candidate, since even the Trump hardcores would hold their nose and vote for anyone not named Biden at this point, and the GOP might just be able to attract enough swing voters with Trump out to win enough borderline states to win. Nobody in their right mind would want to face DeSantis right now, and let's assume no big trauma or political disaster befalls him between now and then. That'd leave Trump, who Biden has already beaten, and almost certainly could do so again unless the economy tanks notably further in the next two years.

    EDIT TO ADD: And if the primary gets to any serious states (and, no Iowa and New Hampshire are far from serious) with a deep field, I agree with Seitz that favors Trump as well. And to revo's point, the GOP hasn't proven smart and/or ruthless enough to pull what the Dems did in the 2020 election and basically cull the herd, pick their favorite, and sabotage/politically doom anyone else who goes against the culling.

    EDIT TO ADD II: And I'll own it now - I was dead wrong on Nikki Haley. She might end up being the Random GOP Moderate, but I see no window to a presidential run. VP, maybe.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  7. #7
    Administrator revo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    fuggedabboutit
    Posts
    25,039
    If the Republican Jewish Coalition conference was any indication, there doesn't appear to be too many Republican candidates shying away from a potential run. DeSantis, Pence, Pompeo, Christie, Haley & Hogan all appeared to hint at a potential run, and a few even bashed TFG by asking how many times do they want to lose. Oof.

  8. #8
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Fantasyland
    Posts
    9,928
    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    If the Republican Jewish Coalition conference was any indication, there doesn't appear to be too many Republican candidates shying away from a potential run. DeSantis, Pence, Pompeo, Christie, Haley & Hogan all appeared to hint at a potential run, and a few even bashed TFG by asking how many times do they want to lose. Oof.
    I was surprised to see a poll that had Trump beating DeSantis. I think it will depend on how DeSantis walks the tight rope of trying to make it clear he is better than Trump while courting his base and dealing with the ad hominem attacks Trump will hurl at him. Trump's reinstatement to Twitter is a big win for him, as his ditto heads love his ramblings. The idea of Trump being president again is extremely scary, as it will swing the whole GOP back to his ideology of winning at all costs and calling it a win when you lose, which may spell the end of our democracy. He can't do it alone, but it was clear there were fascist allies in the GOP for this move. Many--too many--just follow the winner, so I really, really hope Trump doesn't win again. I've believed from day one that he represented the most serious threat to our democracy of my lifetime and I think he still does. For a moment, I let myself believe he and his influence was done for with the poor midterm showing, but 2024 will be very telling about where this country is headed. I sincerely hope that many strong right-wing voices stand up against Trump and try to make sure he does not win again. As bad as others in the field might be, I don't think anyone potentially running will be as bad for this country as Trump has been and would be. He belongs in prison, not the White House.

  9. #9
    Administrator revo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    fuggedabboutit
    Posts
    25,039
    The latest Iowa Caucus poll now has DeSantis in the lead with 32% and Trump with 30%. Trump had a 30% lead in June and 44% lead in November 2021, and the pollster who did it says that "Trump is now a big underdog."
    Meanwhile in NH, DeSantis has an 11% lead over Trump.
    How great will it be if Trump actually does stay in the race and gets walloped? Will he moan about fruad then?
    I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- Trump won't run if he knows he's going to lose. And it seems pretty clear that as primary season approaches, he's not going to be the leader in either of the 1st two primaries, which would be an amazing embarrassment. He'll find some way to drop out of the race.

  10. #10
    Administrator revo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    fuggedabboutit
    Posts
    25,039
    Also, I saw a report that top Dems are "terrified" of a Biden run, because they think he'll lose to any Republican -- EXCEPT Trump, LOL.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •