SP or Closer

[onejayhawk]

It's a moot point for my keeper team since I have Brandon Woodruff to fill the slot behind Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease.

However, the two I will have to release are Zack Wheeler and Liam Hendrick. In a vacuum, which would you rather have a top closer or a solid SP3?

J

[rhd]

It's a moot point for my keeper team since I have Brandon Woodruff to fill the slot behind Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease.

However, the two I will have to release are Zack Wheeler and Liam Hendrick. In a vacuum, which would you rather have a top closer or a solid SP3?

J

I would much rather have Wheeler. And he's better than a #3 SP he's at least a solid #2. Worth more than a top closer in either roto or real baseball.

[The Feral Slasher]

It's a moot point for my keeper team since I have Brandon Woodruff to fill the slot behind Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease.

However, the two I will have to release are Zack Wheeler and Liam Hendrick. In a vacuum, which would you rather have a top closer or a solid SP3?

J

Just keep your fave Ashby and don't worry about Wheeler and Hendriks. As mentioned Wheeler is not an SP3

[rhd]

It's a moot point for my keeper team since I have Brandon Woodruff to fill the slot behind Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease.

However, the two I will have to release are Zack Wheeler and Liam Hendrick. In a vacuum, which would you rather have a top closer or a solid SP3?

J

If this is roto and not dynasty, I'd rather have Wheeler than Cease, too. Of course, in dynasty I'd prefer Cease.

[chancellor]

I would much rather have Wheeler. And he's better than a #3 SP he's at least a solid #2. Worth more than a top closer in either roto or real baseball.

This, for sure. Wheeler is a #1 SP on many fantasy teams, a #2 at worst. You're talking two straight years of 2.8ish ERA, 1.02ish WHIP, 10Ks/9 and only 2 BB/9. And he's a pitcher that routinely goes into the 7th inning on a good team, giving him a leg up on wins and/or QS.

[onejayhawk]

This, for sure. Wheeler is a #1 SP on many fantasy teams, a #2 at worst. You're talking two straight years of 2.8ish ERA, 1.02ish WHIP, 10Ks/9 and only 2 BB/9. And he's a pitcher that routinely goes into the 7th inning on a good team, giving him a leg up on wins and/or QS.

Maybe the question is Wheeler or Woodruff? Heaven knows the two of them helped carry a malfunctioning team to the title. I thought Woodruff was more reliable.

Still, is it Wheeler specifically or is it that reliable SP are more important than closers? Pick another pair, say Hader vs Wheeler or Hendriks vs Verlander or Bieber. What then?

[rhd]

Maybe the question is Wheeler or Woodruff? Heaven knows the two of them helped carry a malfunctioning team to the title. I thought Woodruff was more reliable.

Still, is it Wheeler specifically or is it that reliable SP are more important than closers? Pick another pair, say Hader vs Wheeler or Hendriks vs Verlander or Bieber. What then?

A TOR SP is much more valuable than even elite closers in both real baseball and a standard roto format. Mariano Rivera was the best closer in history and his best season bWAR was 5.0. Wheeler had that same bWAR last year and in 2021 it was 7.5. Hader's best bWAR was 3.4. Edwin Diaz probably was the best closer last year and his bWAR was 3.2. Verlander had a 5.9 bWAR at age 39. Hendriks' was 1.7. Closers may be worth a bit more in standard roto than in real baseball but to me the best closer in the league is no more valuable than a solid #3 SP. Of course, how much you end up paying for one depends on your team's needs and the current draft/auction situation.

[onejayhawk]

Just keep your fave Ashby and don't worry about Wheeler and Hendriks. As mentioned Wheeler is not an SP3

Ashby is not even an option anymore. His option cost is too close to his actual value. I picked up Elly de la Cruz to see what the buzz on him would be in February.

Since you seem to be interested, this is the core.

C
1B Rowdy Tellez Mil - 1B (15)
2B Andrés Giménez Cle - 2B,SS (13)
3B Wander Franco TB - 3B,SS (K)
SS Willy Adames Mil - SS (11)
CI Gunnar Henderson Bal - 3B,SS (w)
OF Cedric Mullins Bal - OF (7)
OF Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF (K)
OF Luis Robert CWS - OF (8)
OF
Util

SP Gerrit Cole NYY - SP (K)
SP Dylan Cease CWS - SP (18)
SP Brandon Woodruff Mil - SP (K)
SP Patrick Sandoval LAA - SP (10)
RP Félix Bautista Bal - RP (w)

BN DL Hall Bal - SP (26)

There are still decisions to be made, eg Dustin May at his steep option cost, Brandon Marsh and Elly de la Cruz as mid-late fliers.

[chancellor]

Maybe the question is Wheeler or Woodruff? Heaven knows the two of them helped carry a malfunctioning team to the title. I thought Woodruff was more reliable.

They're very close to even, but I'd lean toward Woodruff. Higher K rate and fairly similar ratios. Woodruff is also about 3 years younger. OTOH, there's an argument for Wheeler - if you're willing to forego the 20-25ish K advantage, Wheeler does tend to go deeper in games, which should drive a higher W/QS figure since he's also on a quality team. I'd actually argue Wheeler is more reliable - he's had 180+ IP three of the last five years; Woodruff never has. Both had some injuries last year that limited them to 26-27 starts and under 160 IP.

To the other question, I'd take a premier SP over a premier closer just about anytime, and especially in your case since you already have Bautista as a keeper. If you had no keeper closer, and a SP core of Cole/Woodruff/Cease, then I might be convinced keeping a premier closer is a good idea over a 4th premier SP. But in a vacuum - and certainly with your roster, if I could keep a 4th premier SP versus a 2nd premier closer, I'd keep the SP all the time.

[onejayhawk]

They're very close to even, but I'd lean toward Woodruff. Higher K rate and fairly similar ratios. Woodruff is also about 3 years younger. OTOH, there's an argument for Wheeler - if you're willing to forego the 20-25ish K advantage, Wheeler does tend to go deeper in games, which should drive a higher W/QS figure since he's also on a quality team. I'd actually argue Wheeler is more reliable - he's had 180+ IP three of the last five years; Woodruff never has. Both had some injuries last year that limited them to 26-27 starts and under 160 IP.

To the other question, I'd take a premier SP over a premier closer just about anytime, and especially in your case since you already have Bautista as a keeper. If you had no keeper closer, and a SP core of Cole/Woodruff/Cease, then I might be convinced keeping a premier closer is a good idea over a 4th premier SP. But in a vacuum - and certainly with your roster, if I could keep a 4th premier SP versus a 2nd premier closer, I'd keep the SP all the time.

That was pretty much my thinking when I chose Woodruff in OP.

It was one of those if-I-had-$1,000,000 speculations, ie if-I-had-a-5th-slot-open. I don't think any SP is bumping Acuna or Wander in what amounts to a dynasty situation.

I will say the mid-season find of Gunnar Henderson makes the whole team hang together a lot better. He's the only reason I can even consider May, for example. I commented to RHD at the time how little interest there was even though GH was dismantling AA pitching and gotten the AAA call. In comparison, Bautista was just a matter of being the fastest to react to news.

Is it just me or ar the Orioles starting to look like a serious team?

[onejayhawk]

Consider this from 11 March.

Woodruff & Wheeler for Hader & Lowe?

Woodruff and Wheeler were on their last option, which is why I have to use one of the K spots next February. Hader and Brandon Lowe have an option left. So he gets both for the cost of picks in the 120-150 range, has to spend a K on Ketel Marte or Gleyber Torres, and build a rotation from nothing.

Without the deal, I drop Hendriks in search of a SP, say Flaherty or Logan Webb, and he has a core of Trout, Woodruff, and Wheeler and keeps the two picks. Sometimes you outsmart yourself.

[rhd]

Is it just me or ar the Orioles starting to look like a serious team?

Yeah, I think they're a serious playoff contender maybe as early as 2023. They need another solid SP, at least a solid #3. I'm not sure he's quite a #3 in MLB but I'm hoping they make a serious bid for Kodai Senga.