Tarik Skubal

[Sour Masher]

He is due an extension. He will be out half the season, probably. The recovery time is 6-9 months for flexor tendon surgery. I liked him a lot before the injury, but as a rule, I don't like keeping hurt SPs. Some want him, but only for low level prospects like Mason Auer. Would you keep him and if so extend him? Should I take whatever I can get? Let him go back into the auction? WWYD?

[The Feral Slasher]

He is due an extension. He will be out half the season, probably. The recovery time is 6-9 months for flexor tendon surgery. I liked him a lot before the injury, but as a rule, I don't like keeping hurt SPs. Some want him, but only for low level prospects like Mason Auer. Would you keep him and if so extend him? Should I take whatever I can get? Let him go back into the auction? WWYD?

I'm guessing you could buy him back in the auction for a lower price than whatever you would extend him at, with less risk, and more opportunity for future years extensions if performance is good.

[Sour Masher]

I'm guessing you could buy him back in the auction for a lower price than whatever you would extend him at, with less risk, and more opportunity for future years extensions if performance is good.

Inflation in my league is about 100%. He would go for more, for sure, but with less risk. I may end up doing it just to eat up cash in the auction.

[chancellor]

Inflation in my league is about 100%. He would go for more, for sure, but with less risk. I may end up doing it just to eat up cash in the auction.

This would be my plan. On the off chance I'd get him back at a price I'd like, that would be great. Otherwise, he can suck up dollars and space on someone else's roster.

[Ken]

Inflation in my league is about 100%. He would go for more, for sure, but with less risk. I may end up doing it just to eat up cash in the auction.

Inflation on Tarik Skubal in a 2023 draft is expected to be 100% though? I'm guilty of the mindset you used here too, inflation is x%, so apply that percent to any decision, and then make your choice based on the inflated price.

But that's not how auctions work. Inflation makes the star players at the start of the auction go for inflated prices. But in every keeper league auction I've ever been involved in, that inflation is gone by the time you are drafting the end of your roster. Injured players and $1 pitchers and the last several hitters on your roster go for $1 or $2.

If Skubal doesn't, and he goes higher, that means there's another similar pitcher who will.

I can't promise you that Skubal won't be overpriced and come back to you cheap, but I can almost guarantee that a similar talent will be.

That's why you don't extend non-stars (in my opinion). Ride out the contract, let it expire, buy the next non-star of similar talent.

[madducks]

But that's not how auctions work. Inflation makes the star players at the start of the auction go for inflated prices. But in every keeper league auction I've ever been involved in, that inflation is gone by the time you are drafting the end of your roster. Injured players and $1 pitchers and the last several hitters on your roster go for $1 or $2.

So true. This is why trying to calculate inflation on all players is a waste of time.

[Sour Masher]

Inflation on Tarik Skubal in a 2023 draft is expected to be 100% though? I'm guilty of the mindset you used here too, inflation is x%, so apply that percent to any decision, and then make your choice based on the inflated price.

But that's not how auctions work. Inflation makes the star players at the start of the auction go for inflated prices. But in every keeper league auction I've ever been involved in, that inflation is gone by the time you are drafting the end of your roster. Injured players and $1 pitchers and the last several hitters on your roster go for $1 or $2.

If Skubal doesn't, and he goes higher, that means there's another similar pitcher who will.

I can't promise you that Skubal won't be overpriced and come back to you cheap, but I can almost guarantee that a similar talent will be.

That's why you don't extend non-stars (in my opinion). Ride out the contract, let it expire, buy the next non-star of similar talent.

Yeah, I get the logic of the don't extend mid-tier guys strategy in a normal league. My league is weird--instead of $260, we have $400 to spend, and we keep 15 per team, and have 20 man minors, so the inflation is just silly. I have advocated for adjusting our salaries down, because it would save time in our length auctions, but no one else is on board. So, yes, the top players still get the most inflation, but there is still plenty of inflation in the middle too and lower end too, especially on speculative, high upside guys. The reward is greater to take the risk on a guy like Skubal, because the potential long term value is higher with our salary structure. The very top tier aces can go for over $100 in our auctions, and a healthy Skubal could go for close to $50. So, there are always teams that know they are unlikely to win in a given year willing to spend more than any contender should on hurt players and high risk/reward guys.

[Ken]

Yeah, I get the logic of the don't extend mid-tier guys strategy in a normal league. My league is weird--instead of $260, we have $400 to spend, and we keep 15 per team, and have 20 man minors, so the inflation is just silly. I have advocated for adjusting our salaries down, because it would save time in our length auctions, but no one else is on board. So, yes, the top players still get the most inflation, but there is still plenty of inflation in the middle too and lower end too, especially on speculative, high upside guys. The reward is greater to take the risk on a guy like Skubal, because the potential long term value is higher with our salary structure. The very top tier aces can go for over $100 in our auctions, and a healthy Skubal could go for close to $50. So, there are always teams that know they are unlikely to win in a given year willing to spend more than any contender should on hurt players and high risk/reward guys.

I understand those league parameters but I'm not following why that means you should extend him.

I also play in a league where we have 15 keepers.

The actual $ amount, like you said, extends the auction but otherwise it should not change your decisions, you just adjust by a set amount x 4 / 2.6.

But at the end of your auctions there has to be a time when a) people start running out of money and b) people start running out of roster spots. At that time IMO there are pitchers of equivalent value to Skubal available. Regardless of the absolute number he normally goes for, auction dynamics still happen, right?

[Sour Masher]

I understand those league parameters but I'm not following why that means you should extend him.

I also play in a league where we have 15 keepers.

The actual $ amount, like you said, extends the auction but otherwise it should not change your decisions, you just adjust by a set amount x 4 / 2.6.

But at the end of your auctions there has to be a time when a) people start running out of money and b) people start running out of roster spots. At that time IMO there are pitchers of equivalent value to Skubal available. Regardless of the absolute number he normally goes for, auction dynamics still happen, right?

I wasn't trying to talk myself into extending Skubal specifically (I just can't bring myself to extend a hurt pitcher). But he will go for more in this league than in a normal league, and not just by a set multiple scaled to the total available money to spend (his multiple will be more like that of the top tier guys). Right or wrong, guys like Skubal, that represent a potential huge long term value at a discount because they are hurt, get inflated more than they would or should in a normal league. I do not have the patience to employ this strategy, as evident by me stupidly trading a $4 Verlander when I nabbed him in his TJ year, as a throw in piece to get Charlie Morton for the stretch run. But our deep benches and 4 IL spots make spending a little extra on a hurt player with eventual upside way more viable a strategy than would be practical in most leagues.

[Ken]

I wasn't trying to talk myself into extending Skubal specifically (I just can't bring myself to extend a hurt pitcher). But he will go for more in this league than in a normal league, and not just by a set multiple scaled to the total available money to spend (his multiple will be more like that of the top tier guys). Right or wrong, guys like Skubal, that represent a potential huge long term value at a discount because they are hurt, get inflated more than they would or should in a normal league. I do not have the patience to employ this strategy, as evident by me stupidly trading a $4 Verlander when I nabbed him in his TJ year, as a throw in piece to get Charlie Morton for the stretch run. But our deep benches and 4 IL spots make spending a little extra on a hurt player with eventual upside way more viable a strategy than would be practical in most leagues.

Understand - so the auction dynamics in your league are such that injured pitchers are way overpriced.

In that case I'd definitely *not* join that game and pay more for injured pitchers, I'd avoid it like it sounds like you are doing.

[Sour Masher]

Understand - so the auction dynamics in your league are such that injured pitchers are way overpriced.

In that case I'd definitely *not* join that game and pay more for injured pitchers, I'd avoid it like it sounds like you are doing.

I don't typically pursue such players, but I don't know if they are overpriced. I really should bid more on them, even if it is just because I know their perceived value gets even higher in-season than whatever else I could spend the money on. Another contender this year spent $13 on Tyler Glasnow and eventually was able to flip him for Zach Wheeler. In hindsight, I probably should have paid more for Glasnow, because I knew he would be a good trade chip eventually. But I just can't bring myself to burn the IL/roster spot, even though we have several of both. The exception was Verlander last year, because I was just bidding him up and landed him for $4. There are always end-gamers I want to spend that money on, but they very rarely pan out. Hurt pitchers like Glasnow, Verlander, May have ended up paying off pretty well lately. I am sure there are hurt pitchers I am not thinking of that did not pay off, but since I would only ever land such a player to trade them as quickly as I could, their eventual outcome doesn't matter too much to me. Their perceived value matters more.

But I recognize that Skubal is not in the same category as the arms I mention above, and that is ultimately why I will likely trade him for whatever I can get. The best offer I have so far is Edouard Julien and Mason Auer--two guys who likely will never make the majors. But both have some upside.

[The Feral Slasher]

I don't typically pursue such players, but I don't know if they are overpriced. I really should bid more on them, even if it is just because I know their perceived value gets even higher in-season than whatever else I could spend the money on. Another contender this year spent $13 on Tyler Glasnow and eventually was able to flip him for Zach Wheeler. In hindsight, I probably should have paid more for Glasnow, because I knew he would be a good trade chip eventually. But I just can't bring myself to burn the IL/roster spot, even though we have several of both. The exception was Verlander last year, because I was just bidding him up and landed him for $4. There are always end-gamers I want to spend that money on, but they very rarely pan out. Hurt pitchers like Glasnow, Verlander, May have ended up paying off pretty well lately. I am sure there are hurt pitchers I am not thinking of that did not pay off, but since I would only ever land such a player to trade them as quickly as I could, their eventual outcome doesn't matter too much to me. Their perceived value matters more.

But I recognize that Skubal is not in the same category as the arms I mention above, and that is ultimately why I will likely trade him for whatever I can get. The best offer I have so far is Edouard Julien and Mason Auer--two guys who likely will never make the majors. But both have some upside.

I find it fascinating that Verlander went for 4, Glasnow went for 13 -- and yet top pitchers can go for over 100. Those prices seem like a huge discount.

[Ken]

I'm confused how Dustin May ended up paying off. It seems like any $ spent on him was a waste for 2022. I guess for a keeper value maybe?

Glasnow and Verlander are in different stratospheres than Skubal, they don't really seem very relevant to a discussion on Tariq Skubal, he has not proven to be close to the pitcher those two are.

[The Feral Slasher]

Glasnow and Verlander are in different stratospheres than Skubal, they don't really seem very relevant to a discussion on Tariq Skubal, he has not proven to be close to the pitcher those two are.

I know, which is why i find it shocking that Sour Masher expects Skubal to go for a lot of money....it just makes no sense to me.

[GwynnInTheHall]

he sucks drop him