Early look at 2023 keepers

[virgonomic]

I have been sitting on this, but with the Jays eliminated and the NHL season starting, I will still follow scores but not watch much baseball.

14-team H2H keep forever league. Short rosters C 1B 2B 3B SS 3OF UT 2SP 2RP 3P 5B

After winning the title in 2021 I missed the playoffs by a point in 2022.

Rounds 1-4 (Keep at least 2)
Ramirez
Riley
Alcantara
SPerez/Stanton/Kershaw/Romano

The top 3 are no-brainers. I don't love keeping 2/4 SP but is Kershaw safer than Stanton? WIll Perez justify a keeper pick?

10th (moves up a round each year)
TyAnderson/Meneses/Bard

Anderson looks like the play here.

Rounds 19-22 (backfilled, optional)
NMarte
Tatis

Tatis is a no-brainer. Marte might be too as a building block or trade chip.

A penny for your thoughts!

[The Feral Slasher]

Top 3 look good. Not sure what to do at Round 4. Don't like any of them that much, but not sure what other options you will have if you don't keep 1

Ty Anderson is who I would keep in 10

Tatis, yes. NMarte you have to know your league to see if he will help you out if you trade him. Would not count on him for production.

[virgonomic]

Top 3 look good. Not sure what to do at Round 4. Don't like any of them that much, but not sure what other options you will have if you don't keep 1

Ty Anderson is who I would keep in 10

Tatis, yes. NMarte you have to know your league to see if he will help you out if you trade him. Would not count on him for production.

Good point about #4 - if I throw them all back I could likely darft one of them again (or a bat I like better) so maybe that's the play.

As for Marte, I have the #1 pick in round 19. Volpe, Mayer and Meyer are the only top prospects who could be kept in the late rounds, so I should be able to land a top 5 prospect (a couple could be drafted earlier but that rarely works out - see Abrams and Torkelson, 2022). So, maybe the play is to throw Marte back and draft a top prospect in round 19 then players who will help me in 2023.

[The Feral Slasher]

Good point about #4 - if I throw them all back I could likely darft one of them again (or a bat I like better) so maybe that's the play.

As for Marte, I have the #1 pick in round 19. Volpe, Mayer and Meyer are the only top prospects who could be kept in the late rounds, so I should be able to land a top 5 prospect (a couple could be drafted earlier but that rarely works out - see Abrams and Torkelson, 2022). So, maybe the play is to throw Volpe back and draft a top prospect in round 19 then players who will help me in 2023.

I think you mean Marte ? He was around number 30 in the latest BA rankings. He looks impressive and had a good season, probably will rise a bit in rankings. He's a good prospect, so I guess you need to decide how likely it is you can find a better one at that spot

[virgonomic]

I think you mean Marte ? He was around number 30 in the latest BA rankings. He looks impressive and had a good season, probably will rise a bit in rankings. He's a good prospect, so I guess you need to decide how likely it is you can find a better one at that spot

Fixed. It's a situation I will need to follow in the spring. Farmer and Barrero were the Reds' primary SS in 2022. If they don't sign a significant SS Marte could nose his way in in 2023.

[chancellor]

Rounds 1-3 - Keep all three.

Round 4 - Toss 'em all back in.

ROund 10 - Ty. Anderson, for sure.

Late Rounds - I like Noelve Marte. Sure, there's some higher ranked players, but Marte will get to play in one of the best hitters parks in MLB when he comes up. I might consider moving on to Jordan Walker if you can get him, but only if Arenado opts out. But he'd be the only prospect I'd move on to over Marte.

[virgonomic]

Rounds 1-3 - Keep all three.

Round 4 - Toss 'em all back in.

ROund 10 - Ty. Anderson, for sure.

Late Rounds - I like Noelve Marte. Sure, there's some higher ranked players, but Marte will get to play in one of the best hitters parks in MLB when he comes up. I might consider moving on to Jordan Walker if you can get him, but only if Arenado opts out. But he'd be the only prospect I'd move on to over Marte.

Thanks, Chance. I would keep Marte in round 21. I can draft another prospect in round 19, though it isn't palatable to have 2 dead spots for any length of time.

[virgonomic]

Revisiting keepers with the deadline approaching.

Rounds 1-4 (Keep at least 2)
Ramirez
Riley
Alcantara
Kershaw/Romano?

10th (moves up a round each year)
TyAnderson?

Rounds 19-22 (backfilled, optional)
x
x
NMarte - throwing him back, could redraft
Tatis

I'm intrigued by Kershaw in the 4th round. I'm not sure I will be able to draft a better player. Thoughts heading into ST?

[harmon]

Too high for Kershaw, he's going later than ADP 100.

[virgonomic]

Too high for Kershaw, he's going later than ADP 100.

Good point. However, the league has 2-4 mandatory top 4 keepers and up to 4 keep forever players so many of the top 100 will be kept, some in the late rounds. Kershaw is ranked 55. Should I grab Romano to lock up an elite closer?

[harmon]

Good point. However, the league has 2-4 mandatory top 4 keepers and up to 4 keep forever players so many of the top 100 will be kept, some in the late rounds. Kershaw is ranked 55. Should I grab Romano to lock up an elite closer?

I would, yes. Romano seems like a safer bet as far as pitchers can be trusted.

[madducks]

I'm going to buck conventional wisdom and ADP because I believe you have to zig when they zag to separate yourself from the rest of the pack.

Round 4 - Sal Perez - His floor is probably 20 HR & 70 RBI with his ceiling being determined by his inconsistent batting average. Despite some minor injuries last season, Perez still remains one of the few catchers who can get you 5 starts per week when most of the others are only getting 3-4 starts per week. And his batting average could benefit from the new defensive shift limitations.

Round 10 - Joey Meneses - His minor league numbers make me think that the power is for real although the batting average is likely to regress. Yeah, he strikes out a ton. But, so does just about every other slugger. And first base gets ugly in a hurry this year. Meneses could end up being one of the better middle round options at first base. I think it will be easier to find an average pitcher in the middle rounds of the draft than it will be to find an average first baseman.

[Sharky]

Romano going very early in mixed (like LABR). I would likely take him there.

[virgonomic]

I'm going to buck conventional wisdom and ADP because I believe you have to zig when they zag to separate yourself from the rest of the pack.

Round 4 - Sal Perez - His floor is probably 20 HR & 70 RBI with his ceiling being determined by his inconsistent batting average. Despite some minor injuries last season, Perez still remains one of the few catchers who can get you 5 starts per week when most of the others are only getting 3-4 starts per week. And his batting average could benefit from the new defensive shift limitations.

Round 10 - Joey Meneses - His minor league numbers make me think that the power is for real although the batting average is likely to regress. Yeah, he strikes out a ton. But, so does just about every other slugger. And first base gets ugly in a hurry this year. Meneses could end up being one of the better middle round options at first base. I think it will be easier to find an average pitcher in the middle rounds of the draft than it will be to find an average first baseman.

I agree with your thinking but I feel like taking Meneses around 150 is a stretch; I can reach for him after round 10 if I have a need.

I'm inclined to take Bard there and go into the draft with 2 closers locked up.

[cavebird]

I am not seeing the closer love here. I am with those who say keep the top 3 and throw all the possible #4's back. Even assuming everyone keeps top type guys with all of their top 4s, that's just 55 picks. Then say they each have two more great keepers. That puts you at around 80 ADP for your Groups pick. Per the latest ADP's I have seen, you could get guys like Starling Marte, George Springer, Dansby Swanson, Bogaerts, etc. there. I'd take all of those guys above your options. Yes, I know that Romano has a high ADP, but I just don't get closers that early. Especially not two in the top 10 when they only really effect one out of ten categories. I might throw all the round 10 guys back, too. Tyler Anderson is going from a place that revives pitchers to a place that (unfortunately, sometimes literally) kills them. Bard is 37 years old, pitches in Coors, and had a 5.21 ERA/1.60 WHIP as recently as 2021. You'd be around 160 ADP at round 10. That could get you Mountcastle, Javier Baez, Ian Happ, Morton, Pablo Lopez, Jeffrey Springs, etc. there. I would take them above all of your options.