Profar or pick?

[Sour Masher]

As I am closing in on a title, the specter of a foolish handshake deal hangs over me (I don't usually do these, but I keped getting nagged into it and I really didn't think it would come to fruition that I'd have to do the deal. A debate about which pitcher out of Blake Snell and Lucas Giolito would have the better second half (I was getting a statistical handicap that I did not think Snell could overcome, but he did) has left me now having to honor a trade agreement that, with the benefit of seeing how dominant Snell has been, and him having helped me win a championship, I am clearly coming out poorly on. At the time, I did not think it was likely that Snell would even be keeper worthy , given his price. But now he is a clear value, given my league's extreme inflation. But oh well.

I bet him he'd have the option to trade for Snell for either his 2nd round prospect draft pick or a player off his roster outside his designated top 10. I am leaning toward the player rather than the pick, although his pickings are slim. While we can keep up to 15 major leaguers, I don't see 15 guys on his roster I'd have room for or even want to keep in a 14 team mixed league (with deep rosters and benches, so it plays more like a 15 or 16 team league). The best option, I think, is a $1 Profar, who had the opposite season to Snell. Profar started off great but has faded in the second half. He also loses all his wonderful multi position eligibility and will be LF elg only next year. Still, he is a buck, and good enough to be a low end starter in this league. The Profar owner will be in the lottery and will end up with a lower end 2nd round pick; I do love shiny new prospects, but Profar at $1 over a prospect draft pick in the early 20s, right?

[GwynnInTheHall]

As I am closing in on a title, the specter of a foolish handshake deal hangs over me (I don't usually do these, but I keped getting nagged into it and I really didn't think it would come to fruition that I'd have to do the deal. A debate about which pitcher out of Blake Snell and Lucas Giolito would have the better second half (I was getting a statistical handicap that I did not think Snell could overcome, but he did) has left me now having to honor a trade agreement that, with the benefit of seeing how dominant Snell has been, and him having helped me win a championship, I am clearly coming out poorly on. At the time, I did not think it was likely that Snell would even be keeper worthy , given his price. But now he is a clear value, given my league's extreme inflation. But oh well.

I bet him he'd have the option to trade for Snell for either his 2nd round prospect draft pick or a player off his roster outside his designated top 10. I am leaning toward the player rather than the pick, although his pickings are slim. While we can keep up to 15 major leaguers, I don't see 15 guys on his roster I'd have room for or even want to keep in a 14 team mixed league (with deep rosters and benches, so it plays more like a 15 or 16 team league). The best option, I think, is a $1 Profar, who had the opposite season to Snell. Profar started off great but has faded in the second half. He also loses all his wonderful multi position eligibility and will be LF elg only next year. Still, he is a buck, and good enough to be a low end starter in this league. The Profar owner will be in the lottery and will end up with a lower end 2nd round pick; I do love shiny new prospects, but Profar at $1 over a prospect draft pick in the early 20s, right?

[Ken]

Who is your 15th keeper currently? Is Profar a significant upgrade over that keeper.

I hate keeping low end starters when you can just find a similar player in the auction setting for a similar price, but I guess there's value in some cases.

[Sour Masher]

Who is your 15th keeper currently? Is Profar a significant upgrade over that keeper.

I hate keeping low end starters when you can just find a similar player in the auction setting for a similar price, but I guess there's value in some cases.

My 15th keeper is Eugenio Suarez at the equivalent of about $13 when converted to a standard $260 cap league. I think I could move him for a late 2nd or 3rd round pick, if I wanted to.

[chancellor]

In a vacuum, Profar is the easy pick. But Ken makes a great point that you'll have to compare him with your lowest keeper, and if it's not much of an upgrade, take the pick.

[Sour Masher]

If the popcorn is for the potential shadiness, I get it. I have never really agreed to a deal like this, and at the time, I wasn't sure if it was even serious--he just kept nagging me about it and I just said, sure, whatever gets you to drop it. He likes to push in-season wagers all the time and I often cave, because they are almost always easy money.

But they have always been "player x will outperform player y" for $20 or so. This was the first time he proposed a trade option instead of cash and I didn't really think it through at the time. I should have kept it to the usual $20. His MO is to fall in love with his favorite sleeper and make a straight up even bet on something absurd, like will his guy who was being projected to hit 10 hrs or steal 5 sb would out HR or steal some guy I have who is an established league leader in the category, just to prove how smart he was to bet on the sleeper. Usually, I decline several times but end up taking the bet, because even when his sleeper ends up better than expected, it is easy money. His personal projections for his sleepers are always wildly optimistic. I thought his ROS projections on Snell were as well, but what do you know, Snell actually pulled them off.

The guy actually knows baseball really well, and is often right about auction sleepers and in-season ROS spikes, but again, he is so obsessed with making the hero call, he will most often overpay for said sleepers (because he gets some of them from Effectively Wild, a podcast several others in the league listen to as well), trade way too much for them in-season, or bet on them putting up ridiculous stat lines.

[Sour Masher]

In a vacuum, Profar is the easy pick. But Ken makes a great point that you'll have to compare him with your lowest keeper, and if it's not much of an upgrade, take the pick.

Yeah, Profar saves me money over Suarez, and with as much as I wheel and deal in the offseason, I'm not too worried about being able to make room for Profar. I'm just not sure what to think of him in 2023. His 2022 was solid, but an outlier for him, and he faded after a hot start. I am also not sure where he ends up. He may stay in SD, where he seems liked, but he may opt out if he thinks he can make more than the 7.5 mil he will get in 2023.

[Ken]

But they have always been "player x will outperform player y" for $20 or so. This was the first time he proposed a trade option instead of cash and I didn't really think it through at the time. I should have kept it to the usual $20.

An aside...

It's a little weird to me to have players moving in a keeper league based on futures trades.

A side bet unrelated to fantasy for a few $ doesn't matter, it doesn't affect the rest of the league in any way. You're just making a bet with your friend. But effectively you are trading away a player at less than his full value based on something that's unrelated to the league. I think it would fall under our collusion rules (primarily, was the rest of the league made aware of this option trade?).

Future options are problematic, you're basically allowing rentals for a future cost, which is free for *this* year. So you are allocating more resources to one team for the current year at 0 cost. And increasing resources for one team is limiting those for others in a sum zero game. I'd feel slighted as another owner in this league if I found out there were future options being traded.

[Sour Masher]

I agree, it isn't something I have done before or approve of, and I feel dirty about it. It is complicated by the fact that the other party is our commissioner, in a league he has had running since high school. As some new owners have joined, some of the stuff he has always tried to do with his old pals have come to light as potentially shady, like deals like this. This will be the last time I let him pressure me into such a bet. The only reason I agreed to it is that I didn't think it would end up amounting to anything. As for everyone else knowing, he tries to make these bets with everyone, so everyone knows, but it did lead us to losing a potential new owner this year when he tried this with him.

Another complicating factor here is that most in the league that have known him a long time indulge him and give him a pass, because he is a coke addict with an addictive personality who uses baseball as a way to stave off the coke binges (only successfully for awhile). He becomes obsessive about fantasy baseball and peppers all 13 other owners with constant trade offers and bet options, and when he doesn't get responses, he pouts and implies he will use. It isn't healthy, at all, and I've spend hours and hours texting other league mates about it. We have even floated the idea of replacing our next auction with an intervention, but I really don't think it will help, especially since most of the league can't travel for a live auction and we live all over the country.

None of us know what to do, but to answer the original question, I don't know if everyone is aware of this specific bet yet (I have mentioned it to some), but I will make it explicit once it goes down to see if anyone objects. But it will surprise no one in the league, as they know the commissioner and tolerate this behavior because of his current extenuating circumstances. Before he became an addict, he was a great commissioner and remains the glue that holds the league together, as he is the one that is friends with everyone, while many of us don't really know each other that well. That used to give him a competitive advantage with trades, but we have all gotten to know each other better by talking to each other about how to help him, ironically. But it grows less fun when most of my talks with league mates in recent years are no longer about baseball, but what to do with our friend who we don't know how to help.

[Ken]

OK that explains a lot! I agree with your position and take on it.

I think I'd just do it for Profar and then try to package Profar with someone else to improve keepers later.

[GwynnInTheHall]

If the popcorn is for the potential shadiness, I get it. I have never really agreed to a deal like this, and at the time, I wasn't sure if it was even serious--he just kept nagging me about it and I just said, sure, whatever gets you to drop it. He likes to push in-season wagers all the time and I often cave, because they are almost always easy money.

That's exactly why I posted it and was pretty sure Ken would respond as I know he's taken issue with 'future consideration/tradeback' deals in the past.