Can You Teach an Old Dog New Tricks?

[Hornsby]

I've been coasting on old school stats for years now, not bothering to learn the new advanced metrics. Well, my league mates are starting to pass me by. And I don't like it at all.

So I've got to go back to school and learn the newer advanced metrics, much to my dismay.

School me a bit in what metrics to look at. What a league average might be. And just general things I should be looking at other than old school stats.

I am old, but I'm willing to learn...school me people! TIA...

[madducks]

Great thread topic although the title needs some reworking lol. I'm probably guilty of this as well to some extent although i have been (very) slowly adapting. And I'm also a 5x5 traditionalist. The Baseball Forecaster has some great explanations in the front of their book if you are looking to read up on the subject.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I don't use em at all. Nor do I put much time into spreadsheets, formulas et al. (actually I don't put ANY time into that) I'm not sure I'd be very good at assimilating anything new. Especially since I have some success doing things the way I've always done them.


But good luck buddy learning those new tricks. Maybe you can test em out in the new RJSW league!

[gcstomp]

I am in your camp, Horns of being old school stats centric. In same vein, I am old and tired, and cranky that my traditional 5x5 game is now a fringe game. Namely, my 2 dynasty leagues insisted on getting rid of saves, a classic old school stat, and replacing it with saves + holds. In effect killing, outright killing, the value of traditional closers. You can now just swoop in and get a holds guy from waiver wire any time, one is always available. Just bummed. Replacing ba, with obp, I argues, again, squashed. So disgusting to mess with the classic cats. For what?

Why not get rid of steals? That is as old fashioned and non critical to real baseball value as the save? Sorry, I digress. You were not in particular looking to adhere to the classic 5x5 cats. Just my beef, which I have lost. I now play the game at a built in disadvantage, as I want to play the damn classic 5x5, I will just pretend that is what it is, and have my lunch eaten.

[chancellor]

I agree with madducks that the Forecaster does the best introductory job on advanced stats. Fangraphs sheets online are also very readable, and if you join, you get the added benefit of occasionally poking Paul Sporer. Some that I like to look at for reference:

BABIP/h% - Shandler uses the h% metric, most others use Batting Average on Balls In Play. League average is .300ish, somewhat influenced by speed and fly ball and hard hit ball ratios. But major deviations high or low usually indicate avoid or upside opportunites.

GB/FB/LD rates - Looking at trends in ground ball, fly ball, and line drive rates can be helpful for both pitchers and hitters. A hitter that's showing an up trend in FB rate could well be one who has power upside and/or break out potential. Higher ground ball rates will tend to indicate lower power numbers. Combine this with...

HR/FB rate - Again, useful for looking at both hitters and pitchers.

Have to fly for now...more to follow.

[Sharky]

Great topic and good luck!!

I don’t purport to have expertise, but at core what you’re looking for is stats that have predictive value (not just those that are a reflection of past results and/or luck). BABIP and XBA, h% and GB vs LD vs FB.

[Sour Masher]

If it makes you feel any better, it looks like I am about to win my 8th title in my long time friends league this year, and I don't even watch baseball . There is so much good info out there these days, it can be overwhelming, but while I have enjoyed learning about some of the advance metrics, I don't really think you need to fully grasp most of them to take your game to the next level. Some basic ones that show the underlying skills vs the recent results is really all you need. It really helps when you see a guy with a low BABIP, but with high hard hit rates and LD rates and just know, here is a value guy whose price may down, even though others in my league are probably also aware of these stats. Same goes for guys with inflated ERAs because of out of whack FIP. You can get as deep as you want with it, but just the basics on top of your baseball knowledge, and staying plugged into player news, and you should be able to compete with the best of them.

[Ken]

If it makes you feel any better, it looks like I am about to win my 8th title in my long time friends league this year, and I don't even watch baseball . There is so much good info out there these days, it can be overwhelming, but while I have enjoyed learning about some of the advance metrics, I don't really think you need to fully grasp most of them to take your game to the next level. Some basic ones that show the underlying skills vs the recent results is really all you need. It really helps when you see a guy with a low BABIP, but with high hard hit rates and LD rates and just know, here is a value guy whose price may down, even though others in my league are probably also aware of these stats. Same goes for guys with inflated ERAs because of out of whack FIP. You can get as deep as you want with it, but just the basics on top of your baseball knowledge, and staying plugged into player news, and you should be able to compete with the best of them.

I'll second this one. The advanced metrics are helpful for sure, but that doesn't mean you have to dive in and understand every metric and where they come from and how they all relate. Just take the top 3 or 4 and it gets you 95% of the way there, which more than covers your error bars on the luck factor anyway.

[TranaGreg]

I'll second this one. The advanced metrics are helpful for sure, but that doesn't mean you have to dive in and understand every metric and where they come from and how they all relate. Just take the top 3 or 4 and it gets you 95% of the way there, which more than covers your error bars on the luck factor anyway.

great, now I have to go learn about error bars, thanks a lot!!!

[Ken]

great, now I have to go learn about error bars, thanks a lot!!!

Nah, just ask MITH - it's all luck. Error bars are just the whole graph, right?

[Kevin Seitzer]

great, now I have to go learn about error bars, thanks a lot!!!

There are all sorts of errors that occur in bars.

[ssmallz]

I agree with madducks that the Forecaster does the best introductory job on advanced stats. Fangraphs sheets online are also very readable, and if you join, you get the added benefit of occasionally poking Paul Sporer. Some that I like to look at for reference:

BABIP/h% - Shandler uses the h% metric, most others use Batting Average on Balls In Play. League average is .300ish, somewhat influenced by speed and fly ball and hard hit ball ratios. But major deviations high or low usually indicate avoid or upside opportunites.

GB/FB/LD rates - Looking at trends in ground ball, fly ball, and line drive rates can be helpful for both pitchers and hitters. A hitter that's showing an up trend in FB rate could well be one who has power upside and/or break out potential. Higher ground ball rates will tend to indicate lower power numbers. Combine this with...

HR/FB rate - Again, useful for looking at both hitters and pitchers.

Have to fly for now...more to follow.

I think this is the most important point. New stats are nice and all but most of them aren't very predictive or actionable over what is already out there. The key is understanding how the stats relate to each other and to that specific player. Does the stat show that a player has changed something significant? (I.E. lower o-swing% means they might be swinging at better pitches, lower GB/FB ratio means they might be trying to elevating the ball more). If this lines up with what you're seeing on old school stats then it might be meaningful.

[chancellor]

More stuff:

ERA/xERA/FIP - Gives a look at how "real" a pitchers ERA may be. If there's a significant difference, with a veteran pitcher, it's worth taking a look if they consistently pitch to a much better ERA than xERA.

Strand rate - typically ranges from mid 60s to low 70s; major differences up or down can indicate ERA improvement or damage in the future. OR a really bad strand rate may also indicate a really bad bullpen, too.

First pitch strike % - This one can be interesting. I like to look at this stat for younger starting pitchers for upside/breakout potential in K's and possibly all-around. For a pitcher with a mediocre K/9 rate but reputed to have good to great stuff, this can point to K/9 upside.

[heyelander]

great, now I have to go learn about error bars, thanks a lot!!!

edit... fuckin' seitzer... should have known he would have sniped my joke already

[umjewman]

If it makes you feel any better, it looks like I am about to win my 8th title in my long time friends league this year, and I don't even watch baseball.

It does make me feel better that even a jerk like you can have long time friends.

#lowhangingfruit