Week 3 Thread

[revo]

Dalton Schultz looking iffy at best

[madducks]

The Steelers lone highlight from Thursday was this unbelievable catch by George Pickens. You have to click to watch it on Youtube.

[chancellor]

And for one more week, Kenny Pickett remains the most popular football player in Pittsburgh.

Every time I watch Nick Chubb, I wonder what he'd have done in the 1970s/80s.

[Hornsby]

And for one more week, Kenny Pickett remains the most popular football player in Pittsburgh.

Every time I watch Nick Chubb, I wonder what he'd have done in the 1970s/80s.

I wonder why he's splitting time with Kareem Hunt. Not that Hunt is a bad football player, but he's nowhere near the RB that Chubb is. And for him to get 3 straight Red Zone carries was simply ridiculous...they finally put Chubb in on 4th down and he punched it in easily.

[revo]

Jakobi Meyers OUT

[chancellor]

I wonder why he's splitting time with Kareem Hunt. Not that Hunt is a bad football player, but he's nowhere near the RB that Chubb is. And for him to get 3 straight Red Zone carries was simply ridiculous...they finally put Chubb in on 4th down and he punched it in easily.

I can see using Hunt on some obvious passing downs and as a series-a-half RB to give Chubb a rest, but I agree with you.

[chancellor]

Other fun week 3 notes; only watched three games full-time and bits of two others:

- Carson Wentz still holds the football too long. I suggest solving the problem with shock collars that go off 3.2 seconds after he drops back. Big shock collars.
- Philly's offense has been nearly unstoppable in the first half, but has done almost nothing in second halves. Been good enough so far, but that has to be a concerning trend.
- From a pure FFL standpoint, I'm really glad I listened to revo and went out and got Hurts.
- Dan Campbell is developing a rep for making really bad decisions in crunch time.
- It seems everyone on the Lions is getting ankle injuries. Swift, St. Brown, 2 OLs and at least one DB.
- I really thought DJ Chark would do better with a fresh start, but he looks totally lost.
- Dalvin Cook looks good, but not great. I'm not sure what it is, but I expected him to break a couple of those runs for much longer gains.
- There's no secret to defensive game planning against the Vikings now - take Jefferson out of the game and try and get pressure on Cousins. The Eagles did a great job, and the Lions did occasionally.
- Kliff Klingsbury must have dusted off one of his old Air Raid game plans since every time I tuned into that game, Murray seemed to be passing.
- It's always good to get a win, but the Packers can't kid themselves. If just one of either Godwin or Evans are healthy, that game outcome is probably different.
- More specifically, the Packers are somewhat better if Watkins and Watson are healthy, but the Bucs are A LOT better if Godwin and Evans are healthy. Or even one of Godwin and Evans and Julio Jones.
- I'm beginning to understand why Arizona cut Rasul Douglass last year. He repetitively does stupid, undisciplined stuff - especially after the play is done - that should have been flagged at least twice.
- I was very surprised the Bucs didn't try and run more. Packers were consistently playing two-high safeties with only seven in the box.
- Russell Gage is a seriously tough dude. He was blasted three times that I saw and got up every time. Caught 12 of 13 targets.
- Vita Vea is a blocker consuming monster on the inside.
- The Packers appear to have landed a real steal in Romeo Doubs. 8 catches on 8 targets, many in traffic. He'll need to work on ball security after the catch, but that's a fixable issue.
- Way to Orlovski it, Jimmy Garoppolo! Of course, compared to the pick-six he threw on the play, the safety saved the Niners.
- I could hear every Bronco fan saying during the last drive: "Where has THAT been all year?"
- I could not believe how often the Niners put their CBs on an island against Cortland Sutton, and how often Wilson ignored it.
- Credit to Hackett for hiring game management help. Speed of getting plays into Wilson was much, much better.
- I hope the NFL fines Bosa for that whip-kick trip on Russell Wilson.

[revo]

Some observations:
- if your teams don't have Mahomes, LJax, Hurts or Allen at QB, you likely have to hit big on your other positions to be the league winner. I'm not counting out Herbert or Burrow yet, but the others look like the top 4
- if you waited on QBs and ended up with Dak, Lance, Brady, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers as your starter, you're sweating bullets or playing QB roulette
- luckily, you could've landed Tua, Lawrence, Wentz or Goff as your backup and it's now a real decision to start them over the guys above, as well as over Carr, Cousins and Stafford
- a lot of those mid-tier RBs are looking like disasters: Zeke, Akers, Dobbins, Etienne, Conner. Of course they could bounce back, but besides Conner, who's really TD dependent, the other four seem to have slipped behind their competition
- many of those chic late round RBs are looking droppable: Gainwell, Zamir White, Rachaad White, Pacheco, Allgeier, Isaiah Spiller. Of course, an injury or two to the starter can change anything, but if you need help now, these guys can go
- If you don't have Kelce or Andrews, you'd better have great options at QB/WR/RB because those 2 are doubling up the average other TE. If you have a TE who's been a disaster, and there are many, you're getting lapped by the Andrews/Kelce teams
- too early to count out many of the top WRs, but if you took a bunch of the rookie WRs, you're probably sitting with a wealth of riches. Those are Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Romeo Doubs, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks. George Pickens looks ascendant, especially after his circus catch and Claypool's middling production
- But some of the mid-tier WRs are certainly giving owners fits: Allen Robinson, DJ Moore, Chase Claypool, Allen Lazard, DK Metcalf, Darnell Mooney, Adam Thielen & Kadarius Toney to name a few
- Khalil Herbert is one of those league winning picks. If Montgomery is out for any significant length of time, look out.
- The Bears need to do what the Eagles did last year - accentuate the positives, which is their running game. Use Montgomery if healthy, Herbert and Fields to run all day. Fields just cannot throw and he's killing that team. If you're a Mooney or Kmet owner, you should take whatever you can get for them, but doubt there's anyone out there who's buying what you're selling
-Derrick Henry owners can breathe a sigh of relief since many thought he went over the falls

[chancellor]

Revo's fantasy football advice rocks. That is all.

[revo]

LOL, thanks

Sterling Shepard done for the season

[Ken]

Some observations:
- if your teams don't have Mahomes, LJax, Hurts or Allen at QB, you likely have to hit big on your other positions to be the league winner. I'm not counting out Herbert or Burrow yet, but the others look like the top 4

That depends a ton on how your QB scoring works.

In one of my leagues the guy with Mahomes is 0-3 and one of the guys in 1st has Tom Brady.

[chancellor]

Yeah, I can see that - I'm in second place with the highest point total in my auction league, which is QB/2 RB/3 WR/TE/Flex/Superflex/ST-D with Lawrence and Geno Smith as my two QBs. But I'm stacked at RB/WR/TE, so it's worked out well.

[Ken]

Right - the general statement that if you are bad at QB you need to be good at other spots is... true, but not really saying much. Same is true for other spots as well.

[chancellor]

Right - the general statement that if you are bad at QB you need to be good at other spots is... true, but not really saying much. Same is true for other spots as well.

It is, but I think revo's point is more than that - it's that there's far fewer elite QBs than just last year AND if you've missed out on one of them you'll need to fortify yourself the best you can at all the other positions. I think. But I could be wrong.

And funny this should come up - I just received an offer for Justin Herbert and Aaron Jones for Trevor Lawrence and Austin Ekeler. I'm sending Lawrence and Ekeler

[Ken]

It is, but I think revo's point is more than that - it's that there's far fewer elite QBs than just last year AND if you've missed out on one of them you'll need to fortify yourself the best you can at all the other positions. I think. But I could be wrong.

I don't see it. I see a 3 week sample size where a few guys will naturally have a larger advantage than they would at the end of the year, just due to variations in short samples.

Lets look back at weeks 1-3 in fantasy points by QB

2022 LJax, Allen, Hurts all 28+, no one else above 23.5, 9 QBs > 20
2021 Murray, Brady, Mahomes had 27+, no one else above 24.5, 13 QBs > 20
2020 Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Prescott, Murray all had 28+, no one else above 24.5, 11 QBs > 20
2019 Mahomes, LJax, Prescott, Wilson had 27+, no one else above 23.5, 8 QBs > 20
2018 Fitzmagic, Mahomes, Brees had ~30+, no one else above 26.5, 10 QBs > 20
2017 Brady had ~26, Alex smith 20.75, no others > 20
2016 No one above 24.5, 5 QBs > 20
2015 Rodgers, Brady above 26, 6 QBs above 20
2014 Luck ~26, only Ryan and Manning > 20


2022 looks a lot like 2018-2021. There's always a group of 3-5 at the top, then a tier break, then ~6-10 others.
There's definitely a huge, huge difference of the last 5 years vs 2017 and prior, when you needed a Brady or Rogers or you just had rando non-scoring QB. But I dont see a big delta of 2022 against the last few years.