Week 3 Thread

[revo]

The top QBs this year are so much ahead of the middle tier guys, if you landed them you have a huge advantage. Maybe that evens out, maybe it doesn't. The mid-tier guys are old and some have other major issues. Right now, LJax has scored literally almost 3x what Rodgers, Brady, Stafford and Wilson have scored. They will come back and LJax will come down, but there's a good chance he ends up with 50%-100% more than them.

But the stunning part is that these players are not scrubs, they're stars.

If LJax finishes with 27-29 ppg, and those others finish with 15-17 ppg, that's the equivalent of an extra player.

[Ken]

This doesn't tie out to the actual data. Yes, LJax has had a great start, but the top QBs are simply not further ahead than normal. His start is very similar to Russell Wilson's 2020 in fact.

Here are the > 28 point guys for the last 3 years, 2022 isn't different than 2021/2020 for the point totals for the top guys:

2022 Lamar Jackson 34.75
2020 Russell Wilson 34.33
2020 Josh Allen 31.64
2022 Josh Allen 29.95
2021 Kyler Murray 29.73
2020 Pat Mahomes 29.31
2021 Tom Brady 29.16
2020 Dak Prescott 28.97
2022 Jalen Hurts 28.78
2020 Kyler Murray 28.38
2021 Pat Mahomes 27.73

The next tier, top 10 QBs that are not listed above, in all 3 years are sitting in the ~20-24 point range.

Maybe the issue is you are identifying the wrong QBs for the next tier? Wilson, Rodgers, Brady, and Stafford aren't that tier, they are fading. If you picked those guys (I did in one case), the problem isn't the QB market this year, the problem is we picked the wrong QB. The 2nd tier this year is Herbert and Murray and Tua and Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. The next generation of QBs has arrived ahead of time. That's a GOOD thing for the concept of 2nd tier QBs not a bad thing.

For a comparison point, lets look at RBs instead.

Chubb, Barkley, and James Robinson (wow) are all sitting 17+ points per week.

If you picked Ekeler, Mixon, or Cook in the first round, you are only getting 7-9 points per week so far and you are looking at a big deficit too.

[revo]

I believe you're missing the point.

If you didn't land one of those top 4 QBs + Burrow, Kyler or Herbert, you almost certainly ended up drafting Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Stafford, Lance, Dak, Carr or Cousins as your starter. Those were the pre-season second tier of QBs by ADP. And, you're probably reluctant to bench them, unless in the case of Dak or Lance, they're on the shelf. So the point is, the pre-season second tier of QBs has been so brutally bad, and the top guys as of today have been so good, that the deficit is enormous. If you're in a Superflex league where you need 2 QBs, it's even greater. And that's another problem -- there are a finite amount of QBs to be had. In 1 QB leagues, you could pick up a Goff or Wentz and be good for a sporadic number of weeks, but in 2 QB leagues, you're up the creek.

Pre-season ADPs
8-Wilson
9-Brady
10-Lance
11-Dak
12-Stafford

That means those were all fantasy starters.

Rodgers was 13, Carr 14, Cousins 15. Top backups in a 1 QB league, excellent starters in a 2 QB league.

Tua and Lawrence were pre-season QBs 17 & 18. Neither were drafted as fantasy starters.

In 1 QB leagues, the lower 3rd tier QBs have actually done surprisingly well -- Lawrence, Wentz, Mariota, Goff. But unless you were in a 2 QB league, those guys weren't starting and the boat was probably missed. And besides Lawrence, does anyone expect their hot starts to continue?

It will probably even out, with the top guys coming down, the 2nd tier guys moving up, and the lower 3rd tier guys moving down. But there's enough risk involved with the 2nd tier guys now, when it wasn't like that last year or the year before.

[revo]

And to compare the top RBs vs the preseason top ADP RBs, it's still not close.

Chubb & Saquon are beating other pre-season RB1s like Cook, Fournette, Najee, Mixon & Henry by 8-10 points. LJax, Hurts, Mahomes & Allen are beating the other pre-season QB1s by 20+ points.

[chancellor]

Need some help - have to pick three of:

Cortland Sutton, Gabriel Davis, Mike Williams, Keenen Allen and Curtis Samuel.

Oh - and on the QB post, I actually think Mariota might not stay hot but be really solid as a fantasy QB. Atlanta will be behind by a lot and early in many games, he can still pick up running/scramble yards, and their receivers are better than many (including me) thought.

[revo]

Need some help - have to pick three of:

Cortland Sutton, Gabriel Davis, Mike Williams, Keenen Allen and Curtis Samuel.

Oh - and on the QB post, I actually think Mariota might not stay hot but be really solid as a fantasy QB. Atlanta will be behind by a lot and early in many games, he can still pick up running/scramble yards, and their receivers are better than many (including me) thought.

Sutton & Davis to me are must starts.

I'd have to see about Allen, but if he plays, probably him.

[chancellor]

Sutton & Davis to me are must starts.

I'd have to see about Allen, but if he plays, probably him.

Kind of what i was thinking, though Samuel's floor really intrigues me. Seems to get about 10 targets every game, tacks on a couple points in rushing yards, and they like him in the red zone. I don't see a big upside, but he sure seems as safe as a bet around for a low of 10 points in a PPR league.

[revo]

Kind of what i was thinking, though Samuel's floor really intrigues me. Seems to get about 10 targets every game, tacks on a couple points in rushing yards, and they like him in the red zone. I don't see a big upside, but he sure seems as safe as a bet around for a low of 10 points in a PPR league.

I like Samuel a lot and wouldn't be opposed to using him over the two Chargers.