Before everyone leaves

[onejayhawk]

16-team league with an option keeper system.
Rank the following for the next 2 - 3 years. I can probably keep for of them.

Patrick Sandoval LAA - SP
Aaron Ashby Mil - SP,RP
Rowdy Tellez Mil - 1B
Elly De La Cruz Cin - 3B,SS
Ezequiel Duran Tex - 2B,3B,SS
Félix Bautista Bal - RP
Matt Vierling Phi - 1B,3B,OF
Elehuris Montero Col - 1B,3B
Brett Baty NYM - 3B
Tanner Scott Mia - RP
Brandon Marsh Phi - OF

[chancellor]

Best floor IMO, is Patrick Sandoval. He's upped his slider use quite a bit, and was struggling with control in the first half, which has made marked improvement in the second. I think the WHIP will come down to a more serviceable number and he'll provide solid value elsewhere.

Baty, Montero, and Ashby are all high to very high upside players, but value in the next two years is questionable.

Felix Bautista has been handed the closer role for an up and coming team, and his stuff is undeniably good. The combination of dicey control history, very low BABIP, and ridiculously high strand rate have me very concerned. OTOH, he could go through some normalization, and still be a good 2.50 - 3.00 ERA and 1.05ish WHIP closer who piles up a ton of saves and strikes out 12/9 IP. Tanner Scott at about 6.5 BB/9 IP....pass. Hard pass.

Rowdy Tellez....hmmm. One one hand, the power is real, the walk rate is up and the K rate has held steady. And the changes to the shift rules should help him considerably. But he's a large, lumbering, below average defensive first baseman who's out of shape....kinda like a left-handed Jesus Aguilar. I'd take some of the high upside players first, but if you have a big need for HR/RBI and a BA around .230, maybe.

Neither Vierling nor Duran would be of any interest.

[Pauly]

Tons of explanation above but no mention of the clear No. 1 in my opinion, which is Elly De la Cruz. If you are talking next 2-3 years he has to be first imo, followed by Sandoval and probably Baty.

Im not going 2-3 years value on a guy like Tellez or an RP like Bautista or blegh Tanner Scott.

IIRC Vierling has already flamed out once for Philly. Montero is OK but not special to me. Ashby kind of sucks. I dont know enough about Duran.

[Ken]

Tons of explanation above but no mention of the clear No. 1 in my opinion, which is Elly De la Cruz. If you are talking next 2-3 years he has to be first imo, followed by Sandoval and probably Baty.

Im not going 2-3 years value on a guy like Tellez or an RP like Bautista or blegh Tanner Scott.

IIRC Vierling has already flamed out once for Philly. Montero is OK but not special to me. Ashby kind of sucks. I dont know enough about Duran.

Elly is exciting - what are your thoughts on the 30% Ks in the minors?

[heyelander]

Vierling is what he is right now. Marsh will take most of the CF ABs next year I would imagine.

[Pauly]

Elly is exciting - what are your thoughts on the 30% Ks in the minors?

I will bet on the 5 tools and hope he works it out. Still super young and can improve there.

[The Feral Slasher]

I will bet on the 5 tools and hope he works it out. Still super young and can improve there.

He is certainly the most exciting of the bunch. Who to keep depends on league settings and team outlook for next year, as well as the potential to trade/reserve a guy like Elly De La Cruz who might not contribute right away. If 1J is not looking to compete next year Elly is a great guy to hold, and if he is competing does he have enough reserve spots to stash him until he can trade him ?

[chancellor]

Tons of explanation above but no mention of the clear No. 1 in my opinion, which is Elly De la Cruz. If you are talking next 2-3 years he has to be first imo, followed by Sandoval and probably Baty.

Yeah, I wasn't clear, but was roughly listing preference from top to bottom of my post. I'm not as excited about De la Cruz as you are for OneJ's timeframe. The combination of very high K rate, insanely high BABIP (yeah, some of that is talent but not all), and just 200 ABs at AA ball at age 20 make me think he's got at least one more full year in the minors, plus some additional time for the Reds to screw with his arbitration timing - at best.

I'd be overjoyed to have him in a dynasty league, but if I have a 2 and maybe 3 year window...not as much.

[onejayhawk]

I am hearing Sandoval is solid. For 2023, maybe Bautista, maybe Tellez but they have concerns going forward. Is Duran's problem that he has no position?

For speculation, Elly De La Cruz is the clear choice, but don't expect anything in 2023.

I'm going to throw Brandon Marsh into the mix since his MLB numbers have underwhelmed. Is he a no-brainer in this bunch?

He is certainly the most exciting of the bunch. Who to keep depends on league settings and team outlook for next year, as well as the potential to trade/reserve a guy like Elly De La Cruz who might not contribute right away. If 1J is not looking to compete next year Elly is a great guy to hold, and if he is competing does he have enough reserve spots to stash him until he can trade him ?

Contending. Next week I hope to become the first back-to-back in league history.

I already had a stacked OF and added Gunnar Henderson to Wander Franco, Andres Giminez, and Willy Adames. Tellez makes sense as a rental to complete the IF. However, I could stash one spec pick if the cards lay correctly. Elly and Baty are the main candidates.

[The Feral Slasher]

I am hearing Sandoval is solid. For 2023, maybe Bautista, maybe Tellez but they have concerns going forward.

For speculation, Elly De La Cruz is the clear choice, but don't expect anything in 2023.

I'm going to throw Brandon Marsh into the mix since his MLB numbers have underwhelmed. Is he a no-brainer in this bunch?

J

a no-brainer in what regard ? Like you have no brain if you keep him ? 10 Homers, 10 steals and runs and RBI's in the 40's. OBP short of .300 Again, it comes back to what your team expectations are for next year. If you plan to compete and your league doesn't have 20 keepers, this probably isn't your guy. If your team isn't particularly strong heading into next year and you have some spots he might be worth a gamble. But he seems like a guy you could get for 2 or 3 bucks at auction.

[onejayhawk]

a no-brainer in what regard ? Like you have no brain if you keep him ? 10 Homers, 10 steals and runs and RBI's in the 40's. OBP short of .300 Again, it comes back to what your team expectations are for next year. If you plan to compete and your league doesn't have 20 keepers, this probably isn't your guy. If your team isn't particularly strong heading into next year and you have some spots he might be worth a gamble. But he seems like a guy you could get for 2 or 3 bucks at auction.

I am looking at keeping 19 though that many is unusual. More common is 15 or so.

The slotting process is complex but tied to preseason rankings for WW pickups, which most of these are. Highly ranked players, such as Sandoval, equate to a redraft ADP of about $220 and work back from there. So the lowest ranked WW pickup slot is valued at about ADP #300 - #325. In dollar terms, I'm asking if I should throw $2-$5 at Brandon Marsh, plus options for two additional years, when I already own Acuna, Robert, and Mullins for 2023.

Roughly speaking, here is what I am thinking.

1 Wander Franco TB - 3B,SS (K)
2 Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF (K)
3 Gerrit Cole NYY - SP (K)
4 Liam Hendriks CWS - RP (4)
5 Dustin May LAD - SP (5)
6 Pick
7 Cedric Mullins Bal - OF (7)
8 Luis Robert CWS - OF (8)
9 Pick
10 Patrick Sandoval LAA - SP (10)
11 Willy Adames Mil - SS (11)
12 Félix Bautista Bal - RP (w)
13 Andrés Giménez Cle - 2B,SS (13)
14 Gunnar Henderson Bal - SS (w)
15 Rowdy Tellez Ml - 1B (15)
16 Brandon Marsh Phi - OF (w)
17 Elly de la Cruz Cin - 3B, SS (w)
18 Dylan Cease CWS - SP (18)
19 Pick
20 Josh Lowe TB - OF (20)
21 Joey Bart SF - C (21)
Pick
Pick
Pick
Pick
26 DL Hall Bal - SP (26)
27-30 Pick

This is how I acquired Acuna and Robert, and before that Yelich and Goldschmidt. Goldy lead me to two titles. I have been less successful finding pitching.

[Ken]

May, Marsh, and Bart don’t seem worth those slots

[onejayhawk]

May, Marsh, and Bart don’t seem worth those slots

Start with everyone possible, then prune the tree.

That said, you don't think Bart is worth a pick in the mid-300s. Why not?

[chancellor]

Not understanding the alternatives you have makes it tough. I agree with Ken on May and Marsh, but the key question is who might you get to replace them in those slots? With roughly 240 players kept, that calculus is difficult. For example, I really like Dustin May, but as a pick in the 80s, that does seem overvalued. But, if May goes in, do you have a prayer of getting anyone who might be as good as him?

[Ken]

Not understanding the alternatives you have makes it tough. I agree with Ken on May and Marsh, but the key question is who might you get to replace them in those slots? With roughly 240 players kept, that calculus is difficult. For example, I really like Dustin May, but as a pick in the 80s, that does seem overvalued. But, if May goes in, do you have a prayer of getting anyone who might be as good as him?

This is a great point. To do this analysis you need to understand what range of player is available should you *not* keep a player. May is taking a slot around the 80s, but that's wrong in 2 different directions:

1) What pick number will a 5th round pick actually be? If everyone in the league has their top 5 rounds filled, then that turns this pick into a 1.01 pick, if no one does, then it's around the 80th overall pick. That's a dramatic difference
2) Given the answer to (1), whats the best player that should be available? So if everyone keeps their top 5 rounds, and this is expected to be a 1.01, who is the best player who will not be kept? Or alternatively, if most teams don't keep top 5 round picks, what is around the 80th player who will not be kept?

Regarding Bart, I'm not sure of the reason why anyone would keep him at this point? He's not a starting fantasy caliber catcher and his prospect status has long since faded. Are teams hording catchers such that you'd end up with a WORSE second catcher? And even if so, is that worth using a keeper spot?