Before everyone leaves

[Gregg]

This is a great point. To do this analysis you need to understand what range of player is available should you *not* keep a player. May is taking a slot around the 80s, but that's wrong in 2 different directions:

1) What pick number will a 5th round pick actually be? If everyone in the league has their top 5 rounds filled, then that turns this pick into a 1.01 pick, if no one does, then it's around the 80th overall pick. That's a dramatic difference
2) Given the answer to (1), whats the best player that should be available? So if everyone keeps their top 5 rounds, and this is expected to be a 1.01, who is the best player who will not be kept? Or alternatively, if most teams don't keep top 5 round picks, what is around the 80th player who will not be kept?

Regarding Bart, I'm not sure of the reason why anyone would keep him at this point? He's not a starting fantasy caliber catcher and his prospect status has long since faded. Are teams hording catchers such that you'd end up with a WORSE second catcher? And even if so, is that worth using a keeper spot?

Good post.

I would like to know the answer to these questions. It makes it easier to reply.

[onejayhawk]

Not understanding the alternatives you have makes it tough. I agree with Ken on May and Marsh, but the key question is who might you get to replace them in those slots? With roughly 240 players kept, that calculus is difficult. For example, I really like Dustin May, but as a pick in the 80s, that does seem overvalued. But, if May goes in, do you have a prayer of getting anyone who might be as good as him?

If it was actually in the 80s, I would not consider it. It's actually more like the 120s. This is because of all the non-keepers options ranked above #80. If you look at my list, you will see Robert and Mullins in rounds #6 and #7 and Cease in round #18. That's a lot because I am contending, but most teams have at least one player.

Similarly, round #10 equates to low 200s and round #17 to low 300s (#10 and #17 are the first and last rounds for WW pickups). Lowe and Bart are mid-300s. Options advance 4 rounds per year so later picks are cheaper keepers and every 4th round adds an extra year.

This is a great point. To do this analysis you need to understand what range of player is available should you *not* keep a player. May is taking a slot around the 80s, but that's wrong in 2 different directions:

1) What pick number will a 5th round pick actually be? If everyone in the league has their top 5 rounds filled, then that turns this pick into a 1.01 pick, if no one does, then it's around the 80th overall pick. That's a dramatic difference
2) Given the answer to (1), whats the best player that should be available? So if everyone keeps their top 5 rounds, and this is expected to be a 1.01, who is the best player who will not be kept? Or alternatively, if most teams don't keep top 5 round picks, what is around the 80th player who will not be kept?

Regarding Bart, I'm not sure of the reason why anyone would keep him at this point? He's not a starting fantasy caliber catcher and his prospect status has long since faded. Are teams hording catchers such that you'd end up with a WORSE second catcher? And even if so, is that worth using a keeper spot?

Last spring the run comparably positioned to May went Yoan Moncada, CJ Cron, and Raisel Iglesias. CJ Cron has been a hell of a player for me this season but I think you could argue May in the same slot. I think Rowdy Tellez projects there as well. Would you rather have May or Tellez for 2023?

I dunno about Bart. I threw him out there without much consideration because the option is so cheap, a couple of rounds later than his 2022 ADP. I don't think this season has hurt his value but you might disagree.

With Marsh I am looking at a much better 2nd half and what seems to be a full-time job.

Good post.

I would like to know the answer to these questions. It makes it easier to reply.

I hope this helps. We are still a couple of months before the rankings and ADP start coming out. That's when I can really refine things.

[chancellor]

I think Rowdy Tellez projects there as well. Would you rather have May or Tellez for 2023?

Even as a Brewer homer, I take Dustin May easily with that choice.

[onejayhawk]

Even as a Brewer homer, I take Dustin May easily with that choice.

I was being a bit sarcastic with that. Still, I expect Tellez to be much lower than his #250-ish slot cost.

We'll see how the off-season shakes out. There is always news and adjustments to be made. If May has a reasonable path to a rotation spot, he might be worth #125.

[onejayhawk]

We made it back to the Finals. I'm now shooting for the league's first-ever repeat and I'm up against Aaron Judge.

J

[Ken]

Even as a Brewer homer, I take Dustin May easily with that choice.

It's weird to have a 1 for 1 comparison.

Fundamentally May probably shouldn't be your pick at 120. Whether Tellez should be instead isn't really relevant to me when looking at that analysis.'

I think I'd take the general "range of 120 available guy" over May.

[onejayhawk]

Revisiting this after the season, I like the way this looks.

1 Wander Franco TB - 3B,SS (K)
2 Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF (K)
3 Gerrit Cole NYY - SP (K)
4 Liam Hendriks CWS - RP or Brandon Woodruff Mil - SP (4)
5 Dustin May LAD - SP (5)
6 Pick
7 Cedric Mullins Bal - OF (7)
8 Luis Robert CWS - OF (8)
9 Pick
10 Patrick Sandoval LAA - SP (10)
11 Willy Adames Mil - SS (11)
12 Félix Bautista Bal - RP (w)
13 Andrés Giménez Cle - 2B,SS (13)
14 Gunnar Henderson Bal - SS (w)
15 Rowdy Tellez Ml - 1B (15)
16 Brandon Marsh Phi - OF (w)
17 Elly de la Cruz Cin - 3B, SS (w)
18 Dylan Cease CWS - SP (18)
19 Pick
20 Josh Lowe TB - OF (20)
21 Joey Bart SF - C (21)
Pick
Pick
Pick
Pick
26 DL Hall Bal - SP (26)
27-30 Pick

• Sandoval and Bautista have the added benefit of pushing Gunnar Henderson back two rounds, giving me an extra year of control.
• May looks to pre-rank in the #80-#120 range which would justify the option cost. Any later and he gets iffy.
• Marsh and de la Cruz are long plays. Getting Elly in round #17 would put him in May's slot in 2026. Carrying cost are cheap for 2023 and not pricy for 2024. He would need to be full time or nearly so in 2025.
• Marsh gets the extra year for Elly, but he's interesting in his own right. His second half shows signs of a potential breakout.
• If May does not project to be fully in the rotation, I don't pick up the option.
• Much as I like having an established closer, I can keep Brandon Woodruff at the same option price as Hendricks.

[onejayhawk]

C Bart
1B Tellez
2B Gimenez
3B Franco
SS Adames
MI Henderson
CI -
OF Acuna
OF Robert
OF Mullins
OF -
Util -

SP Cole
SP Cease
SP Sandoval
SP Woodruff (?)
RP Hendricks (?)
RP Bautista
RP -
P - May
P -
P -

Bench - Brandon Marsh, Elly de la Cruz, Josh Lowe, DL Hall.

I've started with worse.