Manaea and FAA B?

[Bene Futuis]

If I am understanding this correctly, and I'm probably not, there is no way I would put in a FAAB bid high enough that it would cost me real dollars when I inevitably refused to keep Sean Manaea at a high price. He's a good pitcher, but not that good. I would max out at $24.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, I refrained from answering, as I just do not know enough about how the rules in your league affect bidding, so my input would be an uneducated guess. I can say that my first impression was that $51 seemed high. I'd be surprised if you did not land him at that bid, and my assumption is you could probably get him for less. I would only bid him up to a cost that I could see keeping him at if he had a good year, personally. I would not want to pay real dollars to cut him, unless this is a big money league and the real money cost gives you a competitive advantage to win a lot more money than his cost.

[The Feral Slasher]

Ok, so to be the first person to answer the OP, Manaea is a solid pitcher on a good team. I'd probably go 20-24 if SP was a weakness. If I thought he could win me a championship I'd go as high as 30.

I guess I'm not a person ? Maybe you thought I am really a cat ?

[Pauly]

in summary, it's really hard to answer this question because there are so many variables in play. Is there a guy in your league who has a yacht, a vacation house and 3 sportscars in his garage? If so I might answer differently than if you play with a bunch of guys who are barely getting by. Which is a really weird thing for a fantasy baseball forum.

Gregg, do you care about the $ you'd end up throwing away if you cut him? If not, then we can answer this as if that rule didn't exist! And you can just money whip your league mates

I was really trying to say this earlier, I swear. Nicely done.

[rhd]

Interesting thread. A lot of valid points made but few actual answers given to the question.

We have a rule like this in 1 of my leagues. You have to bid actual money for a player coming over from the other league, which goes into the prizes pot, and he can be kept only at the price bid. There was a leaguemate that often used to bid a lot for these players and he often would win them. But he couldnt bid an unlimited amount because of our salary cap so that gives other owners a chance to get the player. My strategy on these players generally is to figure their roto value and bid up to maybe 30% over that amount, similar to what I would do if I ran a real MLB team. Sometimes I get these players and sometimes I even get them at a keeper price.

For Manaea, I calculate that in a typical league he's not worth nearly $24 (depending on your league's inflation) so the league rule wouldnt affect me. I might bid only $13 or so. So I'm sure I wouldnt get him.

And no, you shouldnt quit a league over a rule like this, particularly since Gregg said the members dont have a problem w it.

[The Feral Slasher]

Interesting thread. A lot of valid points made but few actual answers given to the question.

We have a rule like this in 1 of my leagues. You have to bid actual money for a player coming over from the other league, which goes into the prizes pot, and he can be kept only at the price bid. There was a leaguemate that often used to bid a lot for these players and he often would win them. But he couldnt bid an unlimited amount because of our salary cap so that gives other owners a chance to get the player. My strategy on these players generally is to figure their roto value and bid up to maybe 30% over that amount, similar to what I would do if I ran a real MLB team. Sometimes I get these players and sometimes I even get them at a keeper price.

For Manaea, I calculate that in a typical league he's not worth nearly $24 (depending on your league's inflation) so the league rule wouldnt affect me. I might bid only $13 or so. So I'm sure I wouldnt get him.

And no, you shouldnt quit a league over a rule like this, particularly since Gregg said the members dont have a problem w it.

Fangraphs auction calculator has him at $25 before inflation in 12 team NL, the 10th best NL pitcher (using steamer). anyway, auction dollars are different than FAAB. no way i wouldn't go at least 30 and possibly up to 50. I've probably spent 100 of FAAB money and many times not gotten the equivalent production of what Manaea might provide. It's a 12 team NL with 13 reserves per team, there just isn't a lot of value left to bid on.

[The Feral Slasher]

Fangraphs auction calculator has him at $25 before inflation in 12 team NL, the 10th best NL pitcher (using steamer). anyway, auction dollars are different than FAAB. no way i wouldn't go at least 30 and possibly up to 50. I've probably spent 100 of FAAB money and many times not gotten the equivalent production of what Manaea might provide. It's a 12 team NL with 13 reserves per team, there just isn't a lot of value left to bid on.

Thinking about what the 400th best nl player is like I think 50 might be too low of a bid

[Ken]

anyway, auction dollars are different than FAAB. no way i wouldn't go at least 30 and possibly up to 50.

I agree, I dont understand why or how we would equate them, they are very different concepts. (and different units, one is based on a $260 budget, the other $100, one is based on filling limited resources to fill 23 roster spots, the other just 1). I dont think auction $ is relevant to the discussion unless we are talking about keeping for next year.

If I had a need for a starting pitcher, and I presume most in a NL Only do, I'd spend at least 40% of FAAB to get a year's worth of a good pitcher.

[rhd]

Fangraphs auction calculator has him at $25 before inflation in 12 team NL, the 10th best NL pitcher (using steamer). anyway, auction dollars are different than FAAB. no way i wouldn't go at least 30 and possibly up to 50. I've probably spent 100 of FAAB money and many times not gotten the equivalent production of what Manaea might provide. It's a 12 team NL with 13 reserves per team, there just isn't a lot of value left to bid on.

Yes, and in this case very different because if you bid over $24, you're bidding real money. My way is just the way I do it for a similar scenario and I've had reasonably good success w it. Straight FAAB is a completely different story. And, obviously, the bid depends on a lot of circumstances, like how badly you need pitching and at what point of the season it is. I just dont value Manaea as highly as many others do.

[Ken]

I just dont value Manaea as highly as many others do.

Just out of curiousity do you play in 12 team only leagues with deep benches? I think even the most pessimistic approach towards Manaea still suggests a high bid in a league that deep where every starter is rostered. Replacement value is extremely low. I doubt there's another *starter* of any kind available.

[rhd]

Just out of curiousity do you play in 12 team only leagues with deep benches? I think even the most pessimistic approach towards Manaea still suggests a high bid in a league that deep where every starter is rostered. Replacement value is extremely low. I doubt there's another *starter* of any kind available.

Yes, this particular league is such. But this league seems similar to Gregg's in that valuable players coming from the other league will require real money (we call them "cash bids"). For straight FAAB, yes one would bid more for a solid SP like Manaea. I would bid more than $13 straight FAAB, altho I dont think nearly as much as you and FS indicate you'd bid. I like pacing my FAAB spending thruout the year. And I think there'd likely be even better SPs than Manaea that come over around the trade deadline, so if you spend much of FAAB at the start of the year, you probably wont be able to compete for those pitchers against guys that save their FAAB.

Edit: In Gregg's league, I would bid $24 FAAB since this is the highest non-cash bid, as would many others. But someone would bid more, so I wouldnt get him.

[Ken]

Yes, this particular league is such. But this league seems similar to Gregg's in that valuable players coming from the other league will require real money (we call them "cash bids"). For straight FAAB, yes one would bid more for a solid SP like Manaea. I would bid more than $13 straight FAAB, altho I dont think nearly as much as you and FS indicate you'd bid. I like pacing my FAAB spending thruout the year. And I think there'd likely be even better SPs than Manaea that come over around the trade deadline, so if you spend much of FAAB at the start of the year, you probably wont be able to compete for those pitchers against guys that save their FAAB.

The trade deadline is August 2nd, at that point 60% of your season is over. Your FAAB dollars on August 2nd are worth ~40 cents in opening day fob dollars.

It makes sense to save some $ but a player would have to be worth significantly more than Manaea to be worth an equivalent bid at that point.

[Ken]

Lets say Manaea is a $15 pitcher in auction dollars in an Only league. According to the projection systems he's worth more than that, he earned $19 in 12 team Only last year and this trade should be an improvement in his value, but lets just go with it and be conservative.

If you typically save your money and spend it at the trade deadline you'd need to pick up a ~$35 player for it give your team equivalent value of what Manaea does across a whole season. Possible a big name gets dealt, but then everyone is bidding for that player too, and if you don't win him? Then what?

Take the bird in hand. Bid big.

[rhd]

The trade deadline is August 2nd, at that point 60% of your season is over. Your FAAB dollars on August 2nd are worth ~40 cents in opening day fob dollars.

It makes sense to save some $ but a player would have to be worth significantly more than Manaea to be worth an equivalent bid at that point.

Sure, I account for that in my FAAB spending. But I just wouldnt spend as much early FAAB on Manaea as evidently a lot of others would. I understand your point and you're welcome to spend big on him, if you want.

[Ken]

Sure, I account for that in my FAAB spending. But I just wouldnt spend as much early FAAB on Manaea as evidently a lot of others would. I understand your point and you're welcome to spend big on him, if you want.

What level player do you need available at the trade deadline to be worth a full season of Manaea in this format where there are 0 starters available in free agency?