Are we done (ish) with Mike Trout?

[The Feral Slasher]

Yeah, last year killed him games-wise. Clearly you're paying for the insane upside, which admittedly is less than it once was in his stolen base heyday. Still, 2019 Trout at $35 would be a-ok by me (or '17, '16, '15 etc.)

Edit: I'd pay more for Trout than for Yordan because I think Trout has a higher upside and both have significant injury concerns, although Yordan's knee problems seem to be chronic. To be fair, I haven't researched that very much at all.

Yordan took a year off and then played 144 games. Were there reports of knee issues last year ? I don't recall

EDIT: but back to Trout, he's certainly an injury risk and high risk/high reward guy. Rostering him would depend on your team's outlook.

[Bene Futuis]

Yordan took a year off and then played 144 games. Were there reports of knee issues last year ? I don't recall

EDIT: but back to Trout, he's certainly an injury risk and high risk/high reward guy. Rostering him would depend on your team's outlook.

Looks like two years of chronic pain, surgery on both knees, but nothing since (that I could find).

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/21/sports/baseball/yordan-alvarez-alcs-mvp.html

[Teenwolf]

Yordan took a year off and then played 144 games. Were there reports of knee issues last year ? I don't recall

I got a sense that Alvarez was in better health last year, which allowed him to play 41 games in LF. That's huge for my confidence in him going forward, as I need to extend him in AL only. Was thinking 3 years to $15, but with OF eligibility, now thinking possibly 4 years at $20. The bat is insanely good, with a 150 OPS+ from age 22-24 seasons, while battling a wonky knee.

Obviously Yordan (24.5 yrs old) has more upside than Trout at 30. Upside being defined as potential to outperform expectations, there is no more upside after multiple MVP's, especially after 30. Performance correlation to age curve is extremely stable, and father time is undefeated.

For every Roger Clemens or Joey Votto that finds a new gear in their late 30's, there's much more of the Pujols/Miggy types that steadily decline into mediocrity starting at 30.

[The Feral Slasher]

Looks like two years of chronic pain, surgery on both knees, but nothing since (that I could find).

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/21/s...-alcs-mvp.html

two years of chronic pain is nothing! probably still some concern, but hope he is healthy

[The Feral Slasher]

I got a sense that Alvarez was in better health last year, which allowed him to play 41 games in LF. That's huge for my confidence in him going forward, as I need to extend him in AL only. Was thinking 3 years to $15, but with OF eligibility, now thinking possibly 4 years at $20. The bat is insanely good, with a 150 OPS+ from age 22-24 seasons, while battling a wonky knee.

Obviously Yordan (24.5 yrs old) has more upside than Trout at 30. Upside being defined as potential to outperform expectations, there is no more upside after multiple MVP's, especially after 30. Performance correlation to age curve is extremely stable, and father time is undefeated.

For every Roger Clemens or Joey Votto that finds a new gear in their late 30's, there's much more of the Pujols/Miggy types that steadily decline into mediocrity starting at 30.

I figured if they let him play OF that many games his knees must be fairly good. Still a bit of a concern. He doesn't look like he is carrying a lot of extra weight, but he is a big guy.

[Bene Futuis]

two years of chronic pain is nothing! probably still some concern, but hope he is healthy

I'm probably more dialed in to complaints of chronic knee pain than most, given my squishy knees and five surgeries. I was worried that Alvarez had a chronic condition (he might), while Trout just had weird and unrelated injuries. Trout now has had issues with his wrist, a torn thumb ligament, and the calf issue that knocked him out last year. Not really sure whether injury-prone is better than suffering from a chronic ailment, I guess.

[The Feral Slasher]

I'm probably more dialed in to complaints of chronic knee pain than most, given my squishy knees and five surgeries. I was worried that Alvarez had a chronic condition (he might), while Trout just had weird and unrelated injuries. Trout now has had issues with his wrist, a torn thumb ligament, and the calf issue that knocked him out last year. Not really sure whether injury-prone is better than suffering from a chronic ailment, I guess.

yeah, who knows. I have Alvarez in an option year, so not sure what to do. Without the knee concerns it would be an easier decision

[Bene Futuis]

Mike Trout has the highest WAR of any player in baseball since 2005. He started playing in 2012.

[madducks]

I'm keeping Mike Trout at $41 this year. My league is a 5x5 12 team mixed with 24 man roster and $300 budget. Nine keepers and $1 free agents makes for some very high inflation with top players going for $70-$80 in the draft. I think that 75% of a season from Mike Trout would still be better than most other OFers.

Part of the reason that I am keeping him is it seems that the outfield position is a lot more shallow this year. My strategy is to corner the top OF market this year as I am also keeping Aaron Judge at $48 and Julio Rodriguez at $1. All three players are first year keepers with three years (one year contracts) being the maximum allowed with a $5 price increase the 2nd and 3rd years.

[Gregg]

I'm keeping Mike Trout at $41 this year. My league is a 5x5 12 team mixed with 24 man roster and $300 budget. Nine keepers and $1 free agents makes for some very high inflation with top players going for $70-$80 in the draft. I think that 75% of a season from Mike Trout would still be better than most other OFers.

Part of the reason that I am keeping him is it seems that the outfield position is a lot more shallow this year. My strategy is to corner the top OF market this year as I am also keeping Aaron Judge at $48 and Julio Rodriguez at $1. All three players are first year keepers with three years (one year contracts) being the maximum allowed with a $5 price increase the 2nd and 3rd years.

Sweet!

[Ken]

I'm keeping Mike Trout at $41 this year. My league is a 5x5 12 team mixed with 24 man roster and $300 budget. Nine keepers and $1 free agents makes for some very high inflation with top players going for $70-$80 in the draft. I think that 75% of a season from Mike Trout would still be better than most other OFers.

Part of the reason that I am keeping him is it seems that the outfield position is a lot more shallow this year. My strategy is to corner the top OF market this year as I am also keeping Aaron Judge at $48 and Julio Rodriguez at $1. All three players are first year keepers with three years (one year contracts) being the maximum allowed with a $5 price increase the 2nd and 3rd years.

How did you get Julio for just $1 last year

[bryanbutler]

How did you get Julio for just $1 last year

Presumably from his minor's (dev squad) roster?

[madducks]

How did you get Julio for just $1 last year

I'm still stunned myself. Expecting a bidding war with someone, I saved 2 bench spots and an extra $21 to bid on him (and Glasnow) at the end of the auction. I was prepared to go $20 for Julio at that point with very little talent left in the auction. So I waited...and waited...but nobody else called him out. Next thing I know every roster but mine is full and I still had 2 spots to fill. So, with nobody left to bid against me, I took Julio for a buck with the next to last pick, then Glasnow for a buck with the final pick, and left $19 on the table. It's the only time I have ever been satisfied with leaving money on the table.



The news was already out that Julio was headed for AAA and that the Mariners could leave him there for the majority of the season. Minor leaguers take up one of our four bench spots. So, it's a tough decision to roster one. Julio was actually rostered by another team in my league at the end of 2021. I was very surprised that he wasn't kept for 2022. I suspect that manager and others in my league were looking to avoid the auction bidding war and targeting him as an early season free agent pickup for $1. I didn't want to risk losing out in the free agent frenzy so I targeted him for the auction end game and was willing to spend the extra money to get him. It ended up working out better than I had planned.



BTW, Kelenic, who had beaten out Julio for the Mariners final spot, went for $20 in the auction. To the same manager who didn't keep Julio from 2021.

[bryanbutler]

wow - I'm shocked...

[madducks]