Is Jon Lester a HOFer?

[revo]

Lester wrapped up a superb career in 2021, finishing with:

200-117
3.66 ERA
117 ERA+
1.278 WHIP
2488 K
8 15+ win seasons
4 200+ K seasons
3 140+ ERA+ seasons
3 top 5 finishes for Cy Young
5 All Star appearances
Led the league in wins once (18 in 2018), Win% once (.792 in 2016), K% once (9.7 in 2010) and Shutouts once (2 in 2008)
9-7, 2.51 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 154 post-season innings
4-1, 1.77 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in 35 World Series innings
1x NLCS MVP

According to B-R.com, the most similar pitchers to him are: Gooden, Cone, Hudson, Verlander & Halladay, of which only Halladay is currently a HOFer (although most of that group may eventually be inducted).

What do you think? HOF or no?

[chancellor]

I voted no only because, "Oh, HELL NO" was not an option.

[Ken]

I voted no only because, "Oh, HELL NO" was not an option.

me too

[Kevin Seitzer]

My gut reaction was the same as chance and Ken. Looking at the numbers, he has a better case than I realized, but I think still falls short on that rubric.

[Kevin Seitzer]

He had a nine-year stretch from 2008-2016 where he was borderline Hall of Fame-ish: 3.34 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.21 WHIP, average season 207 innings, 186 hits, 63 walks, 195 K. But he followed that up with five seasons of 4.25 ERA and 1.40 WHIP while averaging 147 innings pitched.

If he had had a more outstanding peak or maintained that same quality longer, he might be more of a discussion.

[umjewman]

Yeah, I said no way initially and was kind of surprised it was a poll question so took a look at the numbers. And still, no. The great postseason resume is not enough to enhance the overall body of work.

[Pauly]

I have a hard time not thinking of this every time when I think of Lester. FF to 27 seconds in.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Cole Hamels is an example of a pitcher who had a very similar nine-year peak to Lester: 3.26 ERA, 124 ERA+, averaged 209 innings a year. He had a decent four years after that, better than Lester for sure. He doesn't have the same postseason resume as Lester does. And Hamels feels like a borderline but not quite Hall of Famer.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I have a hard time not thinking of this every time when I think of Lester. FF to 27 seconds in.

What a throw from Soler.

[revo]

BTW, here's Hall of Famer Jack Morris:
254-186
3.90 ERA
108 ERA+
1.296 WHIP
2478 K
5 Top 5 finishes for Cy Young
12 15+ win seasons

never led the league in ERA or WHIP
1x K leader (1983)
2x Wins leader (1981, 1992)

[Gregg]

I voted no only because, "Oh, HELL NO" was not an option.

Better than O HELL NO but still no.

[Bene Futuis]

BTW, here's Hall of Famer Jack Morris:
254-186
3.90 ERA
108 ERA+
1.296 WHIP
2478 K
5 Top 5 finishes for Cy Young
12 15+ win seasons

never led the league in ERA or WHIP
1x K leader (1983)
2x Wins leader (1981, 1992)

He's just not a good addition to the HoF at all.

[revo]

He's just not a good addition to the HoF at all.

I agree. But, if Morris is the new baseline, then Lester should get more consideration than many believe.

[Ken]

I agree. But, if Morris is the new baseline, then Lester should get more consideration than many believe.

Not that it matters what I think, but I consider Morris an exception and not a baseline. I don't agree with the "if this person got in then this person should" line of thinking. Each player should be compared to the whole of HoF, not to the least, and evaluated based on that comparison.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Not that it matters what I think, but I consider Morris an exception and not a baseline. I don't agree with the "if this person got in then this person should" line of thinking. Each player should be compared to the whole of HoF, not to the least, and evaluated based on that comparison.

I agree.