2K22 Closer Thread

[TranaGreg]

IMO there's a huge difference between getting a closer with the talent and the role (e.g. Clase) vs speculating on who will get the job in a given setting; I find too many see the first grouping going high & then invest too quickly in the second group.

[chancellor]

but how many sure thing guys are there?

9-14, depending on how you define a "sure thing". For example, the Yankees want Chapman to be their closer. But he's been injured a lot of late. Do you consider him a sure thing? I would, but mileage may definitely vary. For the sake of discussion, let's say there's 12. Figure 1-2 of those will suffer unexpected catastrophic or near-catastrophic injury (call that the Ken Giles effect). So, 10ish closers will be reliable for the entire season.

I agree with you that drafting a closer earlier than 10th isn't necessary to win a 15-team mixed league. OTOH, Bene's strategy could also deliver excellent value. You'd just have to be ready to pivot to your strategy since getting burned on a closer run in a NFBC style league is very likely.

[TopChuckie]

I have a hard time viewing Hendriks in the same light as Hader, or even Chapman. I know the White Sox hope to trade Kimbrel, but with the lockout they might not have time to get it done before the season starts, especially with Jansen and to a lesser extent Kennedy, Colome, and other former closers on the free agent market. If Kimbrel's there, he seems like a bigger threat to Hendriks' job than injury, poor performance, or trade does to Hader or Chapman. A slow start to the season for Hendriks and I could envision clamoring for Kimbrel, even by Kimbrel as he doesn't strike me as content to be a setup man, or maybe they just go committee or decide to use Hendriks in higher leverage situations because they have Kimbrel, who is just as good, to close. And there's always that narrative that closing makes a guy more valuable if they are trying to trade Kimbrel.

TLDR: Kimbrel's presence makes it hard for me to get on board with Hendriks being the #1, or even #3, closer off the board, like seems to be the early trend.

[chancellor]

TopChuckie - Great perspective. Will be interesting to see how others look at it.

I'm actually more worried about Chapman - he sure seemed to give up a lot of command to keep his FB at that 99-100 MPH range, and also didn't command his slider as well as he used to. 6 BB/9 and a 1.31 WHIP, even with his great K/9 rate, with a pure power pitcher who'll be 34. I'd still take him, but not as high as I used to.

[Pauly]

TopChuckie - Great perspective. Will be interesting to see how others look at it.

I'm actually more worried about Chapman - he sure seemed to give up a lot of command to keep his FB at that 99-100 MPH range, and also didn't command his slider as well as he used to. 6 BB/9 and a 1.31 WHIP, even with his great K/9 rate, with a pure power pitcher who'll be 34. I'd still take him, but not as high as I used to.

Chapman went thru at least a month-long stretch in 21 where he was totally unreliable IIRC...people were picking up Chad Green and Britton for the inevitable benching or IL stint.

To me at this early stage, Chapman is one of the more likely of the "safe" closers to fall from grace.

[Pauly]

I have a hard time viewing Hendriks in the same light as Hader, or even Chapman. I know the White Sox hope to trade Kimbrel, but with the lockout they might not have time to get it done before the season starts, especially with Jansen and to a lesser extent Kennedy, Colome, and other former closers on the free agent market. If Kimbrel's there, he seems like a bigger threat to Hendriks' job than injury, poor performance, or trade does to Hader or Chapman. A slow start to the season for Hendriks and I could envision clamoring for Kimbrel, even by Kimbrel as he doesn't strike me as content to be a setup man, or maybe they just go committee or decide to use Hendriks in higher leverage situations because they have Kimbrel, who is just as good, to close. And there's always that narrative that closing makes a guy more valuable if they are trying to trade Kimbrel.

TLDR: Kimbrel's presence makes it hard for me to get on board with Hendriks being the #1, or even #3, closer off the board, like seems to be the early trend.

Everyone drafting in January needs to be cognizant of the fact that Team X is going to sign grizzled but experienced guys like Alex Colome (or Brad Hand or Soria or a host of others) to take over for the guy with 8 career saves.

[TopChuckie]

Chapman went thru at least a month-long stretch in 21 where he was totally unreliable IIRC...people were picking up Chad Green and Britton for the inevitable benching or IL stint.

To me at this early stage, Chapman is one of the more likely of the "safe" closers to fall from grace.

I'm not saying it's not possible, but I think this is a flawed narrative. In a "bad" season Chapman still had a 15.5 K/9 and 40% K%, 98.4 average fastball velocity, higher than the previous two seasons. His bad month pretty much coincided with the sticky stuff crack down, and I believe there were some injury concerns, then he presumably figured some things out, bounced back, and finished like his usual self. If he's not on the IL, I just can't see Boone moving Chapman to middle reliever permanently, nor can I see Chapman accepting it without disruption. At least not in the 1st half, in the 2nd half, since Chapman's contract is expiring and I doubt they have any intention of bringing him back, then if he struggles, I could envision starting the transition to Loaisiga for the future.

ETA: Or god forbid, if the Yankees are out of it in July, I could see them trading him as a rental again.

[Ken]

ETA: Or god forbid, if the Yankees are out of it in July

I disagree

[Bene Futuis]

IMO there's a huge difference between getting a closer with the talent and the role (e.g. Clase) vs speculating on who will get the job in a given setting; I find too many see the first grouping going high & then invest too quickly in the second group.

Clase is the exact guy I was looking at with the "sure thing" moniker. He, like many other closers, goes much higher in NFBC than elsewhere since you can't farm the wire for other options, though. ADP of about 65 in NFBC and 92 elsewhere. And totally agree that there is a huge gap between the Clases and the speculatives. That's why I try and nab one closer from the tier before the speculatives start going.

Edit: And, yeah, there aren't really many/any actual sure things when it comes to closers but we gotta call 'em something, I suppose.

[TopChuckie]

Purely based on job security, I think I would rate Hader, Jansen, Iglecias, Diaz, and Melancon all ahead of Chapman and Hendriks, as I think potential alternatives can be as big of a factor as talent when it comes to keeping the role, with the caveat that I don't know where Jansen ends up, but if he goes back to the Dodgers, he is their closer, even with Treinen there, and if he goes somewhere else, he'll be getting paid to be their closer also.

I don't include Clase as I'm not sure the Clase-Karinchak battle is a done deal. Clase is still unproven enough to have some struggles, and there is an alternative there that was the "closer" last year.

[Bene Futuis]

Rotographs top 15 relievers along with NFBC ADP

1	Liam Hendriks	CWS	32.41	24	40
2	Josh Hader	MLW	32.9	27	44
3	Raisel Iglesias	LAA	47.38	33	61
4	Emmanuel Clase	CLE	49.83	36	65
5	Edwin Diaz	NYM	55.76	45	68
6	Ryan Pressly	HOU	57.55	48	74
7	Aroldis Chapman	NYY	67.28	51	83
8	Kenley Jansen	LAD	75.28	57	96
9	Will Smith	ATL	81.93	56	111
10	Jordan Romano	TOR	87.55	65	104
11	Mark Melancon	ARZ	109.17	67	164
12	Craig Kimbrel	CWS	114.52	86	147
13	Giovanny Gallegos	STL	86.28	61	112
14	Corey Knebel	PHI	134.9	103	173
15	Dylan Floro	MIA	199.97	159	237

At those prices I'm liking Knebel, Smith, and Gallegos pretty well. Don't know if I could burn a 4th rounder on Clase, as much as he's an elite option.

[Pauly]

Rotographs top 15 relievers along with NFBC ADP

1	Liam Hendriks	CWS	32.41	24	40
2	Josh Hader	MLW	32.9	27	44
3	Raisel Iglesias	LAA	47.38	33	61
4	Emmanuel Clase	CLE	49.83	36	65
5	Edwin Diaz	NYM	55.76	45	68
6	Ryan Pressly	HOU	57.55	48	74
7	Aroldis Chapman	NYY	67.28	51	83
8	Kenley Jansen	LAD	75.28	57	96
9	Will Smith	ATL	81.93	56	111
10	Jordan Romano	TOR	87.55	65	104
11	Mark Melancon	ARZ	109.17	67	164
12	Craig Kimbrel	CWS	114.52	86	147
13	Giovanny Gallegos	STL	86.28	61	112
14	Corey Knebel	PHI	134.9	103	173
15	Dylan Floro	MIA	199.97	159	237

At those prices I'm liking Knebel, Smith, and Gallegos pretty well. Don't know if I could burn a 4th rounder on Clase, as much as he's an elite option.

I am 50-50 at best that any of the bottom 4 on that list will actually be closers even to start the season. Melancon again jumps out as a great play to me.

[harmon]

My Draft and Hold, NFBC style draft (done on Fantrax) currently ongoing. Top 15 closers are:

1. Hendrix 29
2. Hader 32 (same guy as Hendrix!)
3. Iglesias 54
4. Diaz 67 (same guy as Iglesias!)
5. Pressly 70
6. Clase 73
7. Chapman 75
8. Jansen 77
9. Smith 82
10. Kimbrel 105
11. Gallegos 107
12. Romano 114
13. S. Barlow 118
14. Treinen 129
15. Melancon 138

[Gregg]

The first column is the number of Saves plus 1/2 holds the second column is where the team finished (some ties in there). This is an AL only 5x5 12 team $260 budget keeper. I finished lower than usual as I traded off saves in my dump rebuild.

111-4th
104-2nd
100.5-1st
100.5-5th
82-3rd
77.5-10th
76.5-5th
67-7th
65.5-11th
58.5-9th -Me
39.5-11th
19.5-8th

This league will typically spend 25-30 on the handful of "best" closers at auction. Around this time of year they start getting nervous about the cost of keeping them and start to offer them on the trade block. If no one bites they get tossed back in and go for about the same cost give or take a buck or two depending on who is available and money spent.

We have a winter cutdown and waiver draft. These "expensive" closers are never waived at this time. But some of them do not make it past the final roster cutdown pre auction.

None of the top closers listed so far in this thread will be available at auction. Most of the speculative closers are also kept so far.

If any are dropped I will need to spend money at the auction to get a first line closer (if available). I have a very strong team going into the auction but have no for sure saves.

I received an offer last night of my 3rd round reserve pick (3.05) for Chapman 27B and his 12.02 pick. I am very tempted to hit the accept button. Or maybe counter to bring his 12.0 pick up to 8.02 and see what happens. I might be paying a few dollars premium, but at least I have my main closer and get set my tiers for my budget without this unknown.

Thoughts?

[Gregg]

The first column is the number of Saves plus 1/2 holds the second column is where the team finished (some ties in there). This is an AL only 5x5 12 team $260 budget keeper. I finished lower than usual as I traded off saves in my dump rebuild.

111-4th
104-2nd
100.5-1st
100.5-5th
82-3rd
77.5-10th
76.5-5th
67-7th
65.5-11th
58.5-9th -Me
39.5-11th
19.5-8th

This league will typically spend 25-30 on the handful of "best" closers at auction. Around this time of year they start getting nervous about the cost of keeping them and start to offer them on the trade block. If no one bites they get tossed back in and go for about the same cost give or take a buck or two depending on who is available and money spent.

We have a winter cutdown and waiver draft. These "expensive" closers are never waived at this time. But some of them do not make it past the final roster cutdown pre auction.

None of the top closers listed so far in this thread will be available at auction. Most of the speculative closers are also kept so far.

If any are dropped I will need to spend money at the auction to get a first line closer (if available). I have a very strong team going into the auction but have no for sure saves.

I received an offer last night of my 3rd round reserve pick (3.05) for Chapman 27B and his 12.02 pick. I am very tempted to hit the accept button. Or maybe counter to bring his 12.0 pick up to 8.02 and see what happens. I might be paying a few dollars premium, but at least I have my main closer and get set my tiers for my budget without this unknown.

Thoughts?

We settled on my 3.05 for Chapman and his 9.02.