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Thread: Week 18 Thread

  1. #31
    Administrator Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mithrandir View Post
    Raiders were FUCKING IDIOTS for attempting that FG.
    Funny, push logic to the side, they are because you say they are and you use obscene language and capitalize it.

    Got it.

    You really showed them!

    JDM sucks!

  2. #32
    Administrator Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauly View Post
    I may be scarred for life but this was the ending to the first FSU game (my school) that I brought my son to:

    So I dont take the whole FG thing for granted.
    Ah, the classic statistical folly of anecdote over data. I do the same thing all the time. It's a natural reaction to value those experience over the actual data. I hear ya.

  3. #33
    Journeyman Pauly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    Ah, the classic statistical folly of anecdote over data. I do the same thing all the time. It's a natural reaction to value those experience over the actual data. I hear ya.
    Im not going to beat a dead hose anymore but the argument isnt a fallacy. Better to be there than not 😀

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauly View Post
    I may be scarred for life but this was the ending to the first FSU game (my school) that I brought my son to:



    So I dont take the whole FG thing for granted.
    Wow the odds of that happening in college ball is about 1.2%. Still, I don't think it was your son's fault and would not blame him.

    Kidding aside that is a terrible way to lose a game.

  5. #35
    All Star madducks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mithrandir View Post
    Raiders were FUCKING IDIOTS for attempting that FG.
    “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.”

    ― Albert Einstein

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by chancellor View Post
    Gettleman supposed to be retiring. One down, revo!
    I missed the Joe Judge announcement yesterday. Just saw it at lunch.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  7. #37
    All Star Mithrandir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    Funny, push logic to the side, they are because you say they are and you use obscene language and capitalize it.

    Got it.

    You really showed them!

    JDM sucks!
    Logic? Let's see:

    Choice 1: kneel down and tie means 100% in playoffs. Or

    Choice 2: Attempt FG and 99.99999998% chance to make playoffs (blocked kick run back for TD although very unlikely still a possibility)

    So yeah, I'm dumb taking the 100% option.

    Sigh.
    "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

  8. #38
    All Star Mithrandir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauly View Post
    Im not going to beat a dead hose anymore but the argument isnt a fallacy. Better to be there than not ��
    Not sure why Ken doesn't understand this. And he snidely says we're dumb for taking the 100% option. I thought Ken knew statistics?
    "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

  9. #39
    Administrator Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mithrandir View Post
    Not sure why Ken doesn't understand this. And he snidely says we're dumb for taking the 100% option. I thought Ken knew statistics?
    Heh, it's not about me understanding - I completely understand what you guys are saying, you are just ignoring a piece of the puzzle, which quite frankly, is ridiculously wrong.

    Not sure if you are being intentionally obtuse, but I'll play along.

    Lets start by establishing the baselines --
    what are the odds of the blocked FG being returned for a TD (estimate if you need to)
    what are the relative odds of beating the Bengals vs the odds of beating the Chiefs?
    what is the relative value of making it to the playoffs vs proceeding to (at least) the second round of the playoffs?

    I'm open to any reasonable answers you provide for those. Given those numbers we can analyze the choice "statistically".

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mithrandir View Post
    Logic? Let's see:

    Choice 1: kneel down and tie means 100% in playoffs. And Face KC Or

    Choice 2: Attempt FG and 99.99999998% chance to make playoffs (blocked kick run back for TD although very unlikely still a possibility) and play Bengals.

    So yeah, I'm dumb taking the 100% option. You are not dumb, you are just wrong.

    Sigh.
    Fixed.

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