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Thread: Defending the Flag

  1. #11
    Administrator Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    I tend to agree about Sandoval, particularly because of the injury. His ADP in the low 200s reflects that. His option cost is significantly lower than his ADP equivalent, so I'll roster him unless the outlook deteriorates.

    Cease, not so much. his FIP was 3.41, which is a full run better even without improvement. Even if he regresses to 4.00-ish, he's useful. He seems clear cut top-50 and we play 64 SP. In any event, he's almost free with extra years, so not cuttable short of surgery.
    Agree I was giving 4.5 as the benchmark regarding career numbers. If you look at just last year, Cease was indeed improved and that's what makes him rosterable.

    I'd caution against "top-50 and we play 64 SP" matching Pollack's SP approach. I agree that Cease is a great pitcher to have but "trust to not be droppable through the season" - I don't think 1 year where he's still struggling with control matches that description but it is close.

    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    With Liam and josh in the bullpen, it seems to be pretty settled. I'll see if anyone is interested in Joe Barlow. A clear-cut closer with two extra years has value.
    "Clear-cut closer" is definitely how you should market Barlow. In no way do I agree that's what he actually is. The Rangers bullpen changes regularly.

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    Agree I was giving 4.5 as the benchmark regarding career numbers. If you look at just last year, Cease was indeed improved and that's what makes him rosterable.

    I'd caution against "top-50 and we play 64 SP" matching Pollack's SP approach. I agree that Cease is a great pitcher to have but "trust to not be droppable through the season" - I don't think 1 year where he's still struggling with control matches that description but it is close.
    Duly noted. When you get down to it, there are no sure things at SP and I've had worse SP3 to start a season.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    "Clear-cut closer" is definitely how you should market Barlow. In no way do I agree that's what he actually is. The Rangers bullpen changes regularly.
    Meh. They have been sorting cast offs and dregs looking for someone workable. They only had two closers all of last season and Ian Kennedy is 36 years old. Barlow will be 26 in 2022.

    More to the point, he is recognized as a quality pitcher aside from the role.
    Ad Astra per Aspera

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  3. #13
    Administrator Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    Meh. They have been sorting cast offs and dregs looking for someone workable. They only had two closers all of last season and Ian Kennedy is 36 years old. Barlow will be 26 in 2022.

    More to the point, he is recognized as a quality pitcher aside from the role.
    They will continue sorting through castoffs too. That's how they view the position as an organization. I'd love for Barlow to keep the role and he certainly could do so, but we're talking about a guy who was not highly thought of prior to 2021 due to his lack of control (around 6BB/9).

    He had a 3.45 FIP and a 4.56 xFIP last year along with just 8.4 K/9. Those aren't closer numbers. His elite results were entirely held up by the unsustainable BABIP which we've talked about in other threads.

    I'm not convinced that he looked any better than LeClerc looked in 2018 (the 2019 followup was not as pretty). Similar to Jon Hernandez. I've made the mistake of rostering Rangers "closers" before, it's not a great idea.

    He's a decent relief pitcher but those are a dime a dozen. I could see Nick Snyder filling a very similar role in 2022.

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    They will continue sorting through castoffs too. That's how they view the position as an organization. I'd love for Barlow to keep the role and he certainly could do so, but we're talking about a guy who was not highly thought of prior to 2021 due to his lack of control (around 6BB/9).

    He had a 3.45 FIP and a 4.56 xFIP last year along with just 8.4 K/9. Those aren't closer numbers. His elite results were entirely held up by the unsustainable BABIP which we've talked about in other threads.

    I'm not convinced that he looked any better than LeClerc looked in 2018 (the 2019 followup was not as pretty). Similar to Jon Hernandez. I've made the mistake of rostering Rangers "closers" before, it's not a great idea.

    He's a decent relief pitcher but those are a dime a dozen. I could see Nick Snyder filling a very similar role in 2022.
    You would have done all right with Kennedy. When in the past decade have you rostered a Rangers closer who was under 30, had good stuff, and tied to the team past the end of the season?

    Joe Barlow has an ADP in the low 200s, currently 205 on NFBC. I think that is a reasonable balance of his talents, upside, and situation. In this league, that makes him trade bait.

    I did a standard deviation analysis of the roster. I was surprised to see Dylan Cease above Lance Lynn and Liam Hendricks.

    Cedric Mullins 16.16
    Brandon Lowe 12.72
    Ronald Acuņa Jr. 10.44
    Willy Adames 8.99
    Jeimer Candelario 7.09
    Gleyber Torres 6.64
    Luis Robert 5.91

    Gerrit Cole 17.93
    Dylan Cease 12.90
    Lance Lynn 10.41
    Liam Hendriks 9.63
    Charlie Morton 9.28
    Josh Hader 6.69
    Ad Astra per Aspera

    Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

    Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

    I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude

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