ADP: Buy, Sell, Hold

[onejayhawk]

The idea is to post players and their current redraft ADP.

Buy: The player is significantly undervalued. Grab him if you get the chance.
Sell: The player is significantly overvalued. Don't consider dumping him, do it.
Hold: He's worth the roster spot but not worth pursuing at that price.

I'm using NFBC draft champions. If you are using some other site or have limited the dates, please so note in your post.

J

[onejayhawk]

I'll start off with these four. Buy, sell, or hold for each? Redraft

Gleyber Torres - 160
Joe Barlow - 209
Jeimer Candelario - 227
Jo Adell - 239

[The Feral Slasher]

I'll start off with these four. Buy, sell, or hold for each?

Gleyber Torres - 160
Joe Barlow - 179
Jeimer Candelario - 227
Jo Adell - 239

keeper vs. redraft makes a lot of difference in the discussion. In redraft I'd probably pass on the last three...Torres, not sure about

[onejayhawk]

keeper vs. redraft makes a lot of difference in the discussion. In redraft I'd probably pass on the last three...Torres, not sure about

ADP is strictly redraft.

Torres is only 25 in 2022 and he had a solid 2nd half. Steamer is projecting .269, 22 HR, 13 SB.
Barlow interests me, but not at that price. Maybe if it was 200ish. 26 in 2022.
Candelario is another late season guy--.282, 11 HR after the break. I'm at least holding.
Adell is post-hype at age 23. Oh well. Sometimes thumpers take a while.

Let me throw some more closers on the pile.

Liam Hendricks 30
Josh Hader 31
Raisel Iglesias 64
Edwin Diaz 65
Emmanuel Clase 68

[onejayhawk]

Now that there is a decent log of drafts, look at the top 10.

1 Trea Turner LAD 2B, SS 1.85
2 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS, OF 1.85
3 Juan Soto WAS OF 3.60
4 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 4.90
5 Bo Bichette TOR SS 5.20
6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 6.00
7 Corbin Burnes MLW P 8.60
8 Gerrit Cole NYY P 8.65
9 Shohei Ohtani LAA P, UT 8.85
10 Bryce Harper PHI OF 12.05

Turner and Tatis are 1A and 1B. Which do you prefer and why?
Burnes was CY but isn't some regression expected? Does he deserve this high a ranking?
Ohtani's and Harper's injury histories worry me at this price.
After Bichette, the next SS is Semien at #29. Anderson, Bogaerts, Story, Wander Franco, and Lindor crowd in from 38-48

[heyelander]

Now that there is a decent log of drafts, look at the top 10.

1 Trea Turner LAD 2B, SS 1.85
2 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS, OF 1.85
3 Juan Soto WAS OF 3.60
4 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 4.90
5 Bo Bichette TOR SS 5.20
6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 6.00
7 Corbin Burnes MLW P 8.60
8 Gerrit Cole NYY P 8.65
9 Shohei Ohtani LAA P, UT 8.85
10 Bryce Harper PHI OF 12.05

Turner and Tatis are 1A and 1B. Which do you prefer and why?
Burnes was CY but isn't some regression expected? Does he deserve this high a ranking?
Ohtani's and Harper's injury histories worry me at this price.
After Bichette, the next SS is Semien at #29. Anderson, Bogaerts, Story, Wander Franco, and Lindor crowd in from 38-48

If you're worried about injury histories, I don't see how you take Turner there.

[chancellor]

Heye's making an interesting point - both Turner and Tatis have injury concerns. If the choice is between the two, I'd go with Tatis. But if I had first pick overall, I'd be seriously considering Soto. There's a lot less speed upside, but the risk profile sure seems lower.

Also, league parameters matter here - OBP league...oh, yeah, I'm taking Soto.

And how your league manages Ohtani matters a lot, IMO. If you have a daily league where Ohtani can be slotted both as a hitter and pitcher, I might just take him first overall. If he can only be Ohtani the hitter or Ohtani the pitcher, there's less value there. Twice weekly or weekly changes matter, too.

[Gregg]

Heye's making an interesting point - both Turner and Tatis have injury concerns. If the choice is between the two, I'd go with Tatis. But if I had first pick overall, I'd be seriously considering Soto. There's a lot less speed upside, but the risk profile sure seems lower.

Also, league parameters matter here - OBP league...oh, yeah, I'm taking Soto.

And how your league manages Ohtani matters a lot, IMO. If you have a daily league where Ohtani can be slotted both as a hitter and pitcher, I might just take him first overall. If he can only be Ohtani the hitter or Ohtani the pitcher, there's less value there. Twice weekly or weekly changes matter, too.

Redraft leagues with daily moves Ohtani is in my top two as well.

[Bene Futuis]

Redraft leagues with daily moves Ohtani is in my top two as well.

For sure - potential nine category contributor? Sign me up!

[TranaGreg]

For sure - potential nine category contributor? Sign me up!

I don't understand why he can't close games when he's getting his work in in-between starts.

[onejayhawk]

Here are some interesting clusters in the ADP. I already mentioned that the SSs drop from Bo Bichette at #5 over 20 places to Marcus Semien at #26. What I find intriguing is this cluster. Mondesi qualifies at SS in 10 start formats.

36 Tim Anderson CWS SS 37.61
41 Trevor Story COL SS 42.71
42 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS 42.73
46 Wander Franco TB SS 49.32
47 Francisco Lindor NYM SS 50.34
48 Adalberto Mondesi KC 3B 51.10

1B is surprisingly unsettled. He is the top 15, since some of these guys will rarely see 1B in fantasy. Seriously, what would it take for Cronenworth to be your 1B instead of your SS or 2B?

1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 5.68
2 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 18.41
3 Matt Olson OAK 1B 41.90
4 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 53.07
5 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 63.37
6 Jose Abreu CWS 1B 71.10
7 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B 104.90
8 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 113.20
9 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 116.07
10 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 120.05
11 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 124.12
12 C.J. Cron COL 1B 135.66
13 Josh Bell WAS 1B 146.93
14 Ty France SEA 1B, 2B 148.29
15 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 151.59

[Moonlight J]

Put together a table of 2021 Top 300 guys who underperformed and where they're going so far this winter

[onejayhawk]

I see that some have moved up.

Varsho makes sense. He was decent but only had 300 PA.
Rodrigues is interesting. In his case a strong 2nd half seems the reasonable explanation.
Vaughn is a name I have not considered in some time and now I will keep an eye on him. If Steamer projections play out, he's worth more than his current ADP.

[whalewang]

Put together a table of 2021 Top 300 guys who underperformed and where they're going so far this winter

I think Snell and Bohm are interesting cases to me.

For NL only leagues:
Eugenio Suarez 2022 ADP around 208
Alec Bohm 2022 ADP around 274
Patrick Wisdom ADP around 318

All three of those players have warts but both Suarez and Wisdom have shown more power productivity than Bohm. However, Bohm has the pedigree being drafted 3rd overall in 2018 and is still only 25 years old. Suarez and Wisdom strike out too much for me so I'd invest in Bohm before those two and hope for a good start of the season else an easy drop as the investment is low.

[Moonlight J]

These are the players whose ADP have dropped 100 or more spots since the close of 2021 drafts, some for obvious reasons (TJ surgery) but there are some interesting names on this list.

Player	2021 ADP	2022 ADP	Diff
Tyler Glasnow	46	747	-701
Kenta Maeda	47	739	-692
Tejay Antone	317	711	-394
Brad Hand	114	485	-371
Spencer Turnbull	367	737	-370
Daniel Bard	276	587	-311
Richard Rodriguez	206	512	-306
Adam Ottavino	365	668	-303
Elvis Andrus	333	626	-293
Alex Colome	165	453	-288
Gregory Polanco	364	652	-288
Dylan Moore	117	393	-276
James Karinchak	105	377	-272
Alex Dickerson	318	586	-268
Drew Smyly	227	494	-267
Chris Paddack	103	369	-266
Didi Gregorius	153	418	-265
Buster Posey	239	500	-261
Kevin Newman	425	678	-253
Willi Castro	225	476	-251
Corey Kluber	168	411	-243
Jake Diekman	389	630	-241
Dominic Smith	122	361	-239
Yimi Garcia	382	619	-237
Ryan Yarbrough	247	480	-233
Zach Eflin	177	403	-226
Asdrubal Cabrera	475	700	-225
Corey Dickerson	348	570	-222
Christian Walker	192	408	-216
Paul DeJong	221	436	-215
Jurickson Profar	280	495	-215
Justin Upton	316	527	-211
Donovan Solano	462	669	-207
Eric Hosmer	146	349	-203
Nick Solak	160	360	-200
David Peralta	263	462	-199
Hector Neris	290	485	-195
Kwang Hyun Kim	311	506	-195
Brett Gardner	553	735	-182
Kevin Pillar	436	608	-172
Carlos Santana	267	435	-168
Aaron Bummer	477	643	-166
Nick Ahmed	383	544	-161
Mike Minor	279	437	-158
Jake Odorizzi	264	415	-151
Michael Pineda	226	373	-147
Jose Iglesias	429	570	-141
Joc Pederson	255	395	-140
Pedro Severino	321	460	-139
Lorenzo Cain	266	403	-137
Albert Pujols	595	730	-135
Manuel Margot	250	384	-134
Freddy Galvis	471	602	-131
Kevin Kiermaier	454	584	-130
Madison Bumgarner	314	439	-125
Domingo German	261	386	-125
Trevor May	469	583	-114
Johnny Cueto	486	587	-101
Matt Wisler	613	713	-100
Rougned Odor	466	566	-100