Early Keeper Musings

[onejayhawk]

It's a good MNF game between two teams I dislike. I thought I'd look at the prospects for defending my title, starting with the pitching.

Deep 16 team league, 4 SP, 3RP, 3 P, long bench. I am defending champ and have a solid offense. The downside is that I can acquire only 1-2 solid players/pitchers. The rest will have ADPs above #300

Here is what I know I have, either as keeper or good value option.
Gerrit Cole
Lance Lynn
Dylan Cease
Josh Hader

Two dirt cheap likely pitchers
Nick Wittgren
Tyler Chatwood

That leaves 1-3 players from this group

Patrick Sandoval
Erick Fedde
Madison Bumgarner
Daniel Lynch
Elieser Hernandez
Joe Barlow

These guys are cuttable but not fliers. I want either a good floor or lots of ceiling.

The only reason Sandoval is in this group instead of the first one is that he finished the season on IL. Otherwise he looks like a decent SP4 with upside. Of the others, I was looking at Barlow, Hernandez, or no one.

Are those the right two after Sandoval? Of those two, which on do you like for a contender? Is there any reason to hope for MadBum?

J

[harmon]

I would keep Hernandez and Barlow over Wittgren and Chatwood.

Along with Sandoval that would give you 5 SP, but that's ok, right? Lots more ceiling with those 2 than Wittgren and Chatwood (who seem like dime a dozen types, especially Chatwood).

[revo]

Unless holds are a category, I wouldn't keep Wittgren or Chatwood.

Barlow can get saves, and Lynch/Sandoval/Hernandez all have upside. Depending on the cost, it makes more sense to keep some from this group than the Wittgren/Chatwood group.

[onejayhawk]

I would keep Hernandez and Barlow over Wittgren and Chatwood.

I'd love to but can't. Wittgren and Chatwood are endgame speculations with different rules. Think of it as a long term deal, going into year #2. FYI So is Cease. He was my best draft pickup.

Hernandez and Barlow fall under more expensive rules.

Along with Sandoval that would give you 5 SP, but that's ok, right? Lots more ceiling with those 2 than Wittgren and Chatwood (who seem like dime a dozen types, especially Chatwood).

I was thinking along those lines.

Which between Barlow and Hernandez? If I keep both I have to drop a bat and all the bats are useful.

J

[Gregg]

I'd love to but can't. Wittgren and Chatwood are endgame speculations with different rules. Think of it as a long term deal, going into year #2. FYI So is Cease. He was my best draft pickup.

Hernandez and Barlow fall under more expensive rules.


I was thinking along those lines.

Which between Barlow and Hernandez? If I keep both I have to drop a bat and all the bats are useful.

J

I would speculate that the 31 year old Chatwood will continue to suck. If he was free I would not roster him.

[chancellor]

Personally, I'd keep Lynch and Sandoval. Sandoval, to me, is a slam dunk. A young, 4-pitch guy in a reasonably favorable pitchers park? Who's already proven a sub-4 ERA and low 1.2s WHIP and more than 1K/IP? Oh, yeah. Very, very good floor with some upside.

Lynch was obliterated early, went on a nice mid-season run and then ran out of gas in September, IMO. He comes with risk - the control absolutely must improve - but I like his improvement potential and upside.

Everyone else is cuttable, IMO. And if you'd have to give up a hitter of significant value to keep Lynch, I'd toss him in, too.

[Gregg]

Personally, I'd keep Lynch and Sandoval. Sandoval, to me, is a slam dunk. A young, 4-pitch guy in a reasonably favorable pitchers park? Who's already proven a sub-4 ERA and low 1.2s WHIP and more than 1K/IP? Oh, yeah. Very, very good floor with some upside.

Lynch was obliterated early, went on a nice mid-season run and then ran out of gas in September, IMO. He comes with risk - the control absolutely must improve - but I like his improvement potential and upside.

Everyone else is cuttable, IMO. And if you'd have to give up a hitter of significant value to keep Lynch, I'd toss him in, too.

I can't argue much with this reasoning.

Mad Bum still had good whip 1.18, 7 wins and 124k's in 146 innings. Given the other keepers, I might keep him if there is room.

[Ken]

I can't argue much with this reasoning.

Mad Bum still had good whip 1.18, 7 wins and 124k's in 146 innings. Given the other keepers, I might keep him if there is room.

IMO he has neither a good floor nor lots of ceiling which were the criteria provided.

MadBum earned ~$2 in a 16 team league last year. I'd rather take a flier on whatever can be had in the draft than settle for that. Especially considering the trend line in performance and age.

[Gregg]

IMO he has neither a good floor nor lots of ceiling which were the criteria provided.

MadBum earned ~$2 in a 16 team league last year. I'd rather take a flier on whatever can be had in the draft than settle for that. Especially considering the trend line in performance and age.

I was filtering my Mad Bum comments through the idea of OneJ thinking Chatwood is a keeper.

2020 was a terrible year and small sample size. Last year he trended up over 2020.

His 2019 numbers I consider a pretty high ceiling. I would easily bump Chatwood for MadBum. If MadBum was cheap I would take a chance on him to get back to his 2019 numbers.

Where I do agree with your comment is that I would see what could be back in the draft for the same price and see what those ceilings look like.

[Ken]

I was filtering my Mad Bum comments through the idea of OneJ thinking Chatwood is a keeper.

Ah, but above, 1J noted that it doesn't work like that.

2020 was a terrible year and small sample size. Last year he trended up over 2020.

You can't reference the fact that he was absolutely terrible in 2020 and use that as a positive case for 2021. At this point in his career he needs to be significantly better than he was in 2021 to be worth keeping. The fact that he couldn't strike anyone out in 2020 doesn't make that case.

His 2019 numbers I consider a pretty high ceiling.

Really? I'd just have to disagree. He was mediocre in 2019 and again he's aging and getting worse.

I would easily bump Chatwood for MadBum.

You can't though, that's not how this league works.

If MadBum was cheap I would take a chance on him to get back to his 2019 numbers.

OK, but he will be cheap - whether you keep him or not.

[onejayhawk]

I was filtering my Mad Bum comments through the idea of OneJ thinking Chatwood is a keeper.

2020 was a terrible year and small sample size. Last year he trended up over 2020.

His 2019 numbers I consider a pretty high ceiling. I would easily bump Chatwood for MadBum. If MadBum was cheap I would take a chance on him to get back to his 2019 numbers.

Where I do agree with your comment is that I would see what could be back in the draft for the same price and see what those ceilings look like.

Chatwood is basically free and not rostering him is an option. The others have nontrivial cost.

When I picked up Bumgarner, I was hoping for Grienke II. Unless there is reason to believe he will be significantly better than 2020, such as another tick in velocity, he's not an option.

My thinking Sandoval was solid is ratified. I am a bit surprised that there has been no support for Barlow. He's a young closer with good ratios and no competition.

Between Lynch and Hernandez, am I right to think Lynch has a better floor and Hernandez has higher upside?

[chancellor]

I am a bit surprised that there has been no support for Barlow. He's a young closer with good ratios and no competition.

Barlow's peripherals are sketchy and his BABIP isn't even in the correct universe to be sustainable. There's no way I'd keep him over a decently valued hitter.

Between Lynch and Hernandez, am I right to think Lynch has a better floor and Hernandez has higher upside?

I think Lynch has both a better floor and higher upside than Hernandez next year.

[harmon]

I think Barlow is a strong keep.

For me it's Hernandez over Lynch, just due to age and experience in 2022.

[onejayhawk]

Barlow's peripherals are sketchy and his BABIP isn't even in the correct universe to be sustainable. There's no way I'd keep him over a decently valued hitter.

With a BABIP under .150 I see the concern, but he did it all season, including AAA. He absolutely killed RHH for a .095 BABIP and he has never given up the long ball. The Ks were actually down so perhaps he gained movement by easing back. I remind myself of the old maxim to draft tools over roles, but it appears Barlow has both and he's young enough to do it for a while.

I think Lynch has both a better floor and higher upside than Hernandez next year.

Noted. Hernandez has the one great pitch but he will be a cheap pickup as well.

I think Barlow is a strong keep.

For me it's Hernandez over Lynch, just due to age and experience in 2022.

It sounds like Barlow over both Hernandez and Lynch. That's a possibility.

In any event, it looks like I have my base four SP. I plan to draft 4-5 upside guys--that's how I came by Cease plus three seasons. I'll keep the ax ready in case another Danny Duffy hits the WW.

We could do a deep-water SP fishing thread, sort of like the annual closer thread. It's something to think about for preseason, April, and into May.

J

[chancellor]

With a BABIP under .150 I see the concern, but he did it all season, including AAA. He absolutely killed RHH for a .095 BABIP and he has never given up the long ball. The Ks were actually down so perhaps he gained movement by easing back. I remind myself of the old maxim to draft tools over roles, but it appears Barlow has both and he's young enough to do it for a while.

Well, consider this - Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader are two of the most dominant closers in the game right now. Hendriks BABIP has been .250ish in both '20 and '21; Hader's has been .230ish for a long time. Both have exceptional stuff and their BABIP's are likely repeatable (Hader's has for four years now). Barlow's stuff is very good, but he's not in either of these guys class.

Sure, if you can keep him for essentially free, absolutely. But if you're cutting a hitter of some quality (which your earlier post indicated), no way.