What to do with Verlander?

[TranaGreg]

That sounds wrong, doesn't pass the smell test.

Are you looking at average or peak?

I was thinking the same ... but then looked at the Fangraphs page - for qualified SPs only 9 SPs had an avg FB velocity of >96; lowering the threshold to any SPs (which presumably includes "openers") with no IP limits, results in 33.
Of course including RPs in this dramatically changes the numbers.

All to say, it depends on how you search, but if Verlander could maintain an avg FBv of 96 or better he wouldn't have a lot of company.

[The Feral Slasher]

This was my assessment when I included a $2 Verlander in a deal at the end of the season as well. If anyone can beat the odds, it is Verlander, and even 75% of him is still very good, but no one has come back at his age from the surgery, ever. And many who do make it back are not close to right their first year back. This is the list of all TJ surgery guys: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_John_surgery

There are a lot of success stories on that list, but most of them had the surgery young. An Athletic article from last year highlighted that out of 442 TJ surgeries to that date, 113 were performed on players over 30. Of those, ten made it back to being an All Star. As far as I can tell, none of those 10 were over 35. If anyone will do it, it will be him, but given the other options I had, no way was I keeping JV to find out.

this is some good info. Of the 10 out 113 who made it back to being all stars, how many were all stars before the surgery ? i completely understand the risk with Verlander, but so do a lot of MLB execs and they are very interested. I think comparing him to other pitchers isn't that informative...he should be compared to other Cy Young award winners. His case is unique and should be evaluated that way. High risk/High reward for those willing to buy in.

EDIT: Jamie Moyer was almost 50 when he got TJ surgery, that is amazing that he tried to come back

[Sour Masher]

This was a great post and represents what I love most about RJ.

I have Verlander for a buck and a roster slot for him. It is an AL only 5x5 12 teamer $260 budget with a reserve roster of 13 players. Historically auction end game (pre-reserve) pitchers go for a buck or two. They are usually middle relievers or speculative injured players. I can usually find some good MR in the reserve round. I say these things as it lessens the idea of opportunity cost.

Verlander is opportunity as sure as any of the last few players at auction. If he is bad I can bench him and wait using one of the MRs I have reserve round drafted. Or pick up the hot hand with FAAB for his slot (always some pleasant surprises there) dropping him if needed.

Then there is the fun factor. If I am right Woo Hoo!! If I am wrong eh he only cost me a buck.

Inn that set up, I'd gamble on him for sure. It comes down to who else you have, but he definitely has value. Although, the most recent report would tempt me to shop him, as his value may be high enough now to trade the risk for something more certain. On the other hand, it will be great to have him on your team and have him back to close to what he was. It is fun gambling and winning.

[ssmallz]

You are correct that he carries some risk, but there are not many players with more upside than Justin Verlander

I disagree with the assessment about his upside. What upside are you expecting of a 40 y/o power pitcher? So many times we look back what a player did and just project that forward. Sure he was good in 2019 but he hasn't pitched in 2 years. He's not 24 where you just expect him to come back and be the same player physically. You have to bake in some level of skills regression and if it takes half a year for him to get his control what is that pitcher going to look like? Then what type of pitcher are you looking at in 2023? What about 2024? Compare that to a young flyer where you can potentially get a player who will be prodcutive for 5 or 6 years and someone with significant trade value even if he doesn't become a star. With age related skills decline and a limited # of seasons left in his career there's just not a ton upside here.

IMO, betting on injured pitchers is one of the biggest mistakes most fanatasy managers make, often times the cost is too high for level of risk and reward you are taking on

[chancellor]

I disagree with the assessment about his upside. What upside are you expecting of a 40 y/o power pitcher? So many times we look back what a player did and just project that forward. Sure he was good in 2019 but he hasn't pitched in 2 years. He's not 24 where you just expect him to come back and be the same player physically. You have to bake in some level of skills regression and if it takes half a year for him to get his control what is that pitcher going to look like? Then what type of pitcher are you looking at in 2023? What about 2024? Compare that to a young flyer where you can potentially get a player who will be prodcutive for 5 or 6 years and someone with significant trade value even if he doesn't become a star. With age related skills decline and a limited # of seasons left in his career there's just not a ton upside here.

IMO, betting on injured pitchers is one of the biggest mistakes most fanatasy managers make, often times the cost is too high for level of risk and reward you are taking on

I'm not expecting the upside - or the downside. I mean, the upside is pretty clear - he's proven he can be a dominant, high K, low WHIP, low ERA, high Wins fantasy stud. He's not rushing back from the injury, either, and has already shown mid-90s velocity.

I think the debate is where the expected case is for Verlander. I'm actually less concerned about his return from TJ surgery than the potential impact of no Spider Tack on him. He was very good in Detroit for a long time, but he became an absolute monster in Houston starting in 2018. While they were talking about the new pitch/new approach thing during that time, I think 2021 has pretty well shown how the top Houston pitchers developed dominant spin rates while improving control - and he won't have access to that stuff when he comes back.

So my thinking is his expected case is more in the mid-3s ERA, 1.2ish WHIP, 2.5-3.0 BB/9, 9-10 K/9, and a pitch count restriction early on that will hold him to 150ish IP. But would I go the extra buck or two in an auction? Yeah, sure. I'll take the opportunity cost and a slightly inflated price risk given this is a guy who knows how to pitch and best use his stuff. And maybe, just maybe, Spider Tack wasn't the real reason his numbers improved the way they did.

[The Feral Slasher]

I disagree with the assessment about his upside. What upside are you expecting of a 40 y/o power pitcher? So many times we look back what a player did and just project that forward. Sure he was good in 2019 but he hasn't pitched in 2 years. He's not 24 where you just expect him to come back and be the same player physically. You have to bake in some level of skills regression and if it takes half a year for him to get his control what is that pitcher going to look like? Then what type of pitcher are you looking at in 2023? What about 2024? Compare that to a young flyer where you can potentially get a player who will be prodcutive for 5 or 6 years and someone with significant trade value even if he doesn't become a star. With age related skills decline and a limited # of seasons left in his career there's just not a ton upside here.

IMO, betting on injured pitchers is one of the biggest mistakes most fanatasy managers make, often times the cost is too high for level of risk and reward you are taking on

His upside is probably slightly worse than his last couple of healthy seasons, which is very, very good. or as Chance said "the upside is pretty clear - he's proven he can be a dominant, high K, low WHIP, low ERA, high Wins fantasy stud. ".

EDIT: I will add that what i expect out of a player is not at all what his upside is. Verlander's upside is top 5 pitcher in all of baseball. But it isn't something anyone should expect or bid on. weigh the potential performance vs. the obviously high risk that he will have health or age issues that affect his performance. But I can't agree that he doesn't have more upside than your average $5 flyer that you get late in the draft.

[Gregg]

this is some good info. Of the 10 out 113 who made it back to being all stars, how many were all stars before the surgery ? i completely understand the risk with Verlander, but so do a lot of MLB execs and they are very interested. I think comparing him to other pitchers isn't that informative...he should be compared to other Cy Young award winners. His case is unique and should be evaluated that way. High risk/High reward for those willing to buy in.

EDIT: Jamie Moyer was almost 50 when he got TJ surgery, that is amazing that he tried to come back

At age 47 Moyer was cranking an 81 mph fastball.

[Gregg]

I disagree with the assessment about his upside. What upside are you expecting of a 40 y/o power pitcher? So many times we look back what a player did and just project that forward. Sure he was good in 2019 but he hasn't pitched in 2 years. He's not 24 where you just expect him to come back and be the same player physically. You have to bake in some level of skills regression and if it takes half a year for him to get his control what is that pitcher going to look like? Then what type of pitcher are you looking at in 2023? What about 2024? Compare that to a young flyer where you can potentially get a player who will be prodcutive for 5 or 6 years and someone with significant trade value even if he doesn't become a star. With age related skills decline and a limited # of seasons left in his career there's just not a ton upside here.

IMO, betting on injured pitchers is one of the biggest mistakes most fanatasy managers make, often times the cost is too high for level of risk and reward you are taking on

These are the things that make our wonderful game fun. Thank you for the input.

I am not looking for Verlander to be the answer for 2023 and 2024. I am looking for him to be a difference maker in 2022.

I do agree that in the heat of battle in an auction some injured players go for way too much. If they don't get and stay healthy they can tank a season. If I am playing for this year and I can keep a cheap Verlander I am doing it. If I would have to buy him at auction, probably not going to throw more the a few bucks at him (depending what is out there to spend money on).

[The Feral Slasher]

I disagree with the assessment about his upside. What upside are you expecting of a 40 y/o power pitcher? So many times we look back what a player did and just project that forward. Sure he was good in 2019 but he hasn't pitched in 2 years. He's not 24 where you just expect him to come back and be the same player physically. You have to bake in some level of skills regression and if it takes half a year for him to get his control what is that pitcher going to look like? Then what type of pitcher are you looking at in 2023? What about 2024? Compare that to a young flyer where you can potentially get a player who will be prodcutive for 5 or 6 years and someone with significant trade value even if he doesn't become a star. With age related skills decline and a limited # of seasons left in his career there's just not a ton upside here.

IMO, betting on injured pitchers is one of the biggest mistakes most fanatasy managers make, often times the cost is too high for level of risk and reward you are taking on

so what young flyers do you expect to outperform Verlander in 2022 and 2023 ? that would be an interesting discussion. Who can you get cheap next year who you expect to be better than Verlander ?

Regarding upside, I suspect he will get paid more than 20 million per season. So I don't think it is just me that thinks he has huge potential.

[ssmallz]

These are the things that make our wonderful game fun. Thank you for the input.

I am not looking for Verlander to be the answer for 2023 and 2024. I am looking for him to be a difference maker in 2022.

I do agree that in the heat of battle in an auction some injured players go for way too much. If they don't get and stay healthy they can tank a season. If I am playing for this year and I can keep a cheap Verlander I am doing it. If I would have to buy him at auction, probably not going to throw more the a few bucks at him (depending what is out there to spend money on).

Then I would be very wary of him. I expect the first half of his 2022 season to be pretty terrible as he works his way back into form. His command will certainly be off and I'd expect an era in the mid 4s for the first half of 2022. Once he gets his command back I agree his line will look a whole lot like the pitcher you were expecting, 3.3ish ERA, 1.2 whip 9-10 k/9. Add that all together and and your looking at an ERA of 4 with a whip closer to 1.3. For reference see Adam Wainwright's 2012 season, his first year back from TJ. Check out the 1st half 2nd half splits.

More than that though, think about the timing and how will this affect your team? I assume you're trying to compete in 2022, are you going to keep running him out there if he gets blown up in May? Is he going to ride your bench for the first half until his control comes back? Are you going to be tempted to cut him or sell low on him in June if his ERA is 4.6? These are important points to keep in mind when deciding weather to roster him or not. Just pretend he will be injured until the ASB, how much is he worth to you then?

One of my favorite strategies in fantasy baseball is avoiding these guys like the plague in the drafts and buying them up cheap when the team that drafted them either drops them or is out of contention and willing to sell on the cheap.

[ssmallz]

so what young flyers do you expect to outperform Verlander in 2022 and 2023 ? that would be an interesting discussion. Who can you get cheap next year who you expect to be better than Verlander ?

Per NFBC, Verlander is going around pick 160. Here's a list of guys going after that I would rather draft over Verlander at that price. Skubel, Paddock, Means, Quantril, Ynoa, Eduardo Rodriguez, Aaron Ashby, Triston McKenzie, Patrick Sandoval, Josiah Gray, Jesus Luzardo, Adam Wainwright, Jose Urquidy and Aaron Civale. I am NOT saying these guys will outperform Verlander but most are young with potential to be kept for 4-5 years if they hit, if they get blown up in April, cut them and move on to someone else I can take flyer on, eventually one of them will hit. At Verlander's price, that's what I'm looking for instead of a player with limited upside who I just can't cut b/c of name value

[Ken]

if they get blown up in April, cut them and move on to someone else I can take flyer on, eventually one of them will hit.

That strategy is heavily dependent on league size. In deep leagues you would not want to go in with that plan.

[Bene Futuis]

Per NFBC, Verlander is going around pick 160. Here's a list of guys going after that I would rather draft over Verlander at that price. Skubel, Paddock, Means, Quantril, Ynoa, Eduardo Rodriguez, Aaron Ashby, Triston McKenzie, Patrick Sandoval, Josiah Gray, Jesus Luzardo, Adam Wainwright, Jose Urquidy and Aaron Civale. I am NOT saying these guys will outperform Verlander but most are young with potential to be kept for 4-5 years if they hit, if they get blown up in April, cut them and move on to someone else I can take flyer on, eventually one of them will hit. At Verlander's price, that's what I'm looking for instead of a player with limited upside who I just can't cut b/c of name value

Kind of doubt Adam Wainwright will be kept 4-5 years. I'd also pick a thousand Justin Verlanders before one Adam Wainwright in next year's draft.

I do totally agree, though, with your strategy of going with youth and health on the pitching side (well, on every side).

[The Feral Slasher]

Per NFBC, Verlander is going around pick 160. Here's a list of guys going after that I would rather draft over Verlander at that price. Skubel, Paddock, Means, Quantril, Ynoa, Eduardo Rodriguez, Aaron Ashby, Triston McKenzie, Patrick Sandoval, Josiah Gray, Jesus Luzardo, Adam Wainwright, Jose Urquidy and Aaron Civale. I am NOT saying these guys will outperform Verlander but most are young with potential to be kept for 4-5 years if they hit, if they get blown up in April, cut them and move on to someone else I can take flyer on, eventually one of them will hit. At Verlander's price, that's what I'm looking for instead of a player with limited upside who I just can't cut b/c of name value

Thanks, that helps for context. I think it is unlikely that more than a couple of those guys outperform Verlander, but we shall see. Of course he could not be fully healthy and they could all be better than him, but I see that as risk not an assessment of upside. He is probably the most likely out of the list to be a top 10 pitcher, which is why I struggle to agree he has limited upside.

Most of those guys also are not going to be cheap flyers available for a few bucks at the end of the draft I suspect, they look more like $10 -$15 guys for the most part, depending on league settings. So they certainly have a greater probability of outperforming Verlander than a late round flyer as mentioned previously. And I can certainly understand why someone would prefer to spend their money on someone from this list instead of Verlander.

[Gregg]

Kind of doubt Adam Wainwright will be kept 4-5 years. I'd also pick a thousand Justin Verlanders before one Adam Wainwright in next year's draft.
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How big are your rosters!!??