So the Pre-Season Thinking of SPs....

[revo]

.....that teams would limit their innings due to 2020's abbreviated season absolutely did NOT come to pass. In fact, it's been quite the opposite.

In 2019, 22 SPs ended up with 190+ IP.

This year, a whopping FIFTY SIX SPs are on pace to equal or exceed 190 IP.

What happened? How did the fantasy community get this so terribly wrong?

[Todd Zola]

We didn't?

There isn't anywhere close to 56 on pace for 190. 47 have 95 IP and we're past the halfway point. Prorating to 162 games based on an average of 89 played per team yields 18, plus only seven more with at least 185 IP.

My ROS projections have 10, with 11 more finishing between 180-190.

[Bene Futuis]

Feels like I was the one saying that and everyone disagreed with me. I still don’t think any pitchers will reach 200 IP, too.

[Todd Zola]

Feels like I was the one saying that and everyone disagreed with me. I still don’t think any pitchers will reach 200 IP, too.

Extremely possible. I haven't done this week's scrub (waiting until today's games end) but as of last weekend, I only had Cole and Nola over 200 -- and they were at 202.

Giolito, Gausman, Buehler and Darvish are at 194/195.

[revo]

We didn't?

There isn't anywhere close to 56 on pace for 190. 47 have 95 IP and we're past the halfway point. Prorating to 162 games based on an average of 89 played per team yields 18, plus only seven more with at least 185 IP.

My ROS projections have 10, with 11 more finishing between 180-190.

I used my cutoff as 90 IP as of today. CBS's On Pace stats (maybe that's my error, lol) has as any pitcher with 90 IP getting to around 190.

Ok, so forgetting CBS, if we up that to 104 IP as of today, with 14-16 more starts (most SPs have made 18 starts), that's still 20+ pitchers on pace for ~190.

Seven+ pitchers are on pace for ~200.

Sorry Todd, that's still way off from the "no one will get to 185" pre-season narrative.

If anything, this has been a typical season for SPs in this era.

[Bene Futuis]

185? Who was saying that? Also, admit you were wrong this far about Buehler, buddy!

[Todd Zola]

Sorry Todd, that's still way off from the "no one will get to 185" pre-season narrative.

If anything, this has been a typical season for SPs in this era.

Narrative? Sorry, no. Not even close.

Hot take? Maybe, championed by a select few.

Starting pitching is continuing on the same trend. Excluding 2020, the average IP/start since 2015:
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.1

The percentage of quality starts per start:
50.1%
46.6%
43.6%
41.1%
36.9%
34.5%

Granted, 2019 and 2021 are skewed with the advent of the opener. Still, it's clear, starters in the aggregate are throwing fewer innings. This doesn't mean it's linear, studs can still throw their full workload, but as was shown, taking the under on .5 over 200 IP is a wise bet this season..

[revo]

Narrative? Sorry, no. Not even close.

Hot take? Maybe, championed by a select few.

It was definitely discussed here a lot in the pre-season.

On FanGraphs, these were the pre-season projections for # of pitchers getting to 190+ IP:
ATC: 5
Depth Charts: 5
Zips: 2
Steamer: 9
The Bat: 3

Razzball's top projection for IP was Bauer with......184.

This seems more than a select few. Seems like the norm.

Again, 20+ SPs are on pace for 190+ IP. The 2019 season had 22.

[Todd Zola]

No, not the norm. Fangraphs uses the same playing time for all their stuff, so those are duplicates.

BaseballHQ, Rotowire, ESPN (I do those) are far more representative of the norm. I don't have CBS or Yahoo.

I don't like pulling this card, but I'm pretty plugged into the fantasy community. The norm was a handful over 200, and maybe 15-20 over 180.

[revo]

No, not the norm. Fangraphs uses the same playing time for all their stuff, so those are duplicates.

BaseballHQ, Rotowire, ESPN (I do those) are far more representative of the norm. I don't have CBS or Yahoo.

I don't like pulling this card, but I'm pretty plugged into the fantasy community. The norm was a handful over 200, and maybe 15-20 over 180.

Yahoo projected 4 SPs 185+ IP, none over 200.

BBHQ projected 10 SPs 185+ IP, none over 189.

CBS projected 6 SPs 185+ IP, 4 of them over 190, 1 of those over 200.

Fantasy Pros projected 5 SPs 185+ IP, all of those over 190 but under 200.

I don't have access to Rotowire.

Your ESPN projections were easily highest of the lot. Maybe your projections were the different ones (kudos to you, as the rest here all fell into the "covid will affect teams SP innings" thinking).

It was certainly discussed here among many that a lot of teams were going to employ a "2020 + 100 IP" limit or use 6-man rotations. As it turns out, only a small handful of teams have gone with this approach.

[revo]

185? Who was saying that? Also, admit you were wrong this far about Buehler, buddy!

Every team who has been asked has said they will be managing innings carefully, including a +100IP limit or a six man rotation or any number of other ways to keep pitchers fresh - certainly not business as usual, at a minimum. This is something the good teams had already been doing anyways and that the good projections systems have already built in for the upcoming year. Buehler may not get a full body of work in 2021 but it will be due to managing his blister issues and not because of "babying". As already noted, he pitched 182 IP in the last full season.

Last year's top 3 SPs had 81-84 IP, and you yourself said it would be "2020 + 100 IP." That's a smidge less than 185.

And yup, I was wrong about the Dodgers with Buehler -- and as a Dodger fan, I'm happy about that!

[Bene Futuis]

To be fair, I said “any number of ways to keep pitchers fresh”. I think we are already seeing that - a lot - and it will continue to be more prevalent as the season wears on.

[Bene Futuis]

Feels like I was the one saying that and everyone disagreed with me. I still don’t think any pitchers will reach 200 IP, too.

Looks like I was wrong and four pitchers will reach 200 IP. One of them is Walker Buehler - can't remember where I was arguing about his IP this year, but obviously the notion that the Dodgers "baby" him should be tossed out the window. Maybe five if Berrios pitches a CG or close to it. Somewhere around 6-10 total will top 190 IP.

[Bene Futuis]

Final tally: four pitchers over 200 IP, another three over 190 IP

[Moonlight J]

2016:

84 pitchers threw at least 150 innings
74 pitchers threw between 101-150 innings
184 pitchers threw betweeen 50-100 innings
416 pitchers threw fewer than 50 innings

2021:
35% decline in 150+ IP pitchers
28% increase in pitchers in the 101-150 range
11% increase in the 50-100 IP range
38% increase in the <50 IP range

The game has absolutely shifted