Buehler vs Kershaw rental

[Gregg]

Who would you rather have for the rest of the year?

They are both on X contracts so they can't be kept. This is purely a rental.

[revo]

That's close. I'd lean Buehler, but it would depend what you would have to give up for either.

[Gregg]

That's close. I'd lean Buehler, but it would depend what you would have to give up for either.

A $10A Clevinger.

I have offered it to the Buehler owner. He is thinking about it. Then I thought maybe Kershaw would be better.

[Bene Futuis]

Buehler (Bueller? Bueller?)

Buehler

[TranaGreg]

Buehler (Bueller? Bueller?)

Buehler

nice.

I would take Kershaw by a nose but it's very close.

[Ken]

Kershaw

[Bene Futuis]

Kershaw has not been looking good recently. Caveat emptor.

Edit: Buehler, on the other hand, is on a pretty long unbeaten streak (dating back to 2019 or some such craziness) and has put up 6+ IP in every start this season, iirc.

[Judge Jude]

Buehler 2.38 ERA but 3.81 xERA.
last 31 days 1.15 ERA but 4.57 xERA.
6.9 K per 9 in his last 6 starts - not good in 2021.

very surprised, but that looks like a market correction is coming.

Kershaw 3.36 ERA, 3.10 xERA
last 31 days 3.51 ERA, 2.85 xERA
11.2 K per 9 in his last 6 starts

I was going to say Buehler for rate stats but Kershaw for counting stats - I think he's less likely to sit out a turn

but those numbers...

[Bene Futuis]

xERA is a poor evaluative tool and is the least predictive of the similar (but also kind of poor) advanced stats.

Kershaw is getting squared up on with regularity recently but is maintaining a high strikeout rate. Buehler is not getting squared up on much and is just coming off of a 7 or 7+IP start with just 2 strikeouts. Both are very good and it's very close, but I'm just going with what I've seen as the tiebreaker. Kershaw has been better this year thus far but is trending in the wrong direction while Buehler is trending in the right direction, imo. Of course, we know that doesn't mean much with regards to the next start or the rest of the season but that's why I'm going with Buehler.

[Judge Jude]

xERA has been berry berry good to me over the years, though obviously larger sample sizes are better.

if you want something primitive:
Kershaw has 104 K and 15 BB in 88 IP, for a "Command" of 6.9
Buehler has 77 K and 17 BB in 83 IP, for a "Command" of 4.5

last 31 days
Kershaw Command of 7.8
Buehler Command of 2.1

does that look like "Kershaw.... is trending in the wrong direction while Buehler is trending in the right direction" to you?
to anyone?

if Buehler somehow has learned the dark arts that allow for a subpar K/BB Ratio to be the elixir for increasing success - well, please sell some to my SPs, lol

[chancellor]

I'm going to agree with Bene on this one - I'd go Buehler. Kershaw's spin rates are down - not as severely as Bauer, but still notably down...and I'm gonna trust the young guy who can pump it over 96 instead of the crafty vet who's not touching 91 much anymore with the sticky stuff going away. I have no doubts that a pitcher as experienced and smart as Kershaw could do some magical stuff with a baseball and Spider Tack.

I have one dark, nagging doubt about Buehler, though - he's already over 83 IP, and tracking for about 200 IP. Will the Dodgers really let him go there? It's highly probable the Dodgers will have a playoff spot essentially clinched by early to mid-August, so there won't be the need to push him hard.

[Judge Jude]

to repeat myself: "Buehler for rate stats but Kershaw for counting stats - I think he's less likely to sit out a turn"

[Bene Futuis]

Shhh....

[Bene Futuis]

Shhh....

Ah, the ol' insta jinx. Ah well, the smart folks amongst us knew Buehler has been trending in the right direction anyways. Good job, self.

Edit: Weirdly, tonight has followed the exact pattern that has been developing --- very, very little good contact off of Buehler. Only one "hard hit ball" all night long, and that was a 95 mph single off the bat of Ahmed in the 8th.

[Bene Futuis]

Buehler third in the league in IP per start, too, behind only Wheeler and Civale and tied with the Biebs.