If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Kershaw has not been looking good recently. Caveat emptor.
Edit: Buehler, on the other hand, is on a pretty long unbeaten streak (dating back to 2019 or some such craziness) and has put up 6+ IP in every start this season, iirc.
xERA is a poor evaluative tool and is the least predictive of the similar (but also kind of poor) advanced stats.
Kershaw is getting squared up on with regularity recently but is maintaining a high strikeout rate. Buehler is not getting squared up on much and is just coming off of a 7 or 7+IP start with just 2 strikeouts. Both are very good and it's very close, but I'm just going with what I've seen as the tiebreaker. Kershaw has been better this year thus far but is trending in the wrong direction while Buehler is trending in the right direction, imo. Of course, we know that doesn't mean much with regards to the next start or the rest of the season but that's why I'm going with Buehler.
More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.
xERA has been berry berry good to me over the years, though obviously larger sample sizes are better.
if you want something primitive:
Kershaw has 104 K and 15 BB in 88 IP, for a "Command" of 6.9
Buehler has 77 K and 17 BB in 83 IP, for a "Command" of 4.5
last 31 days
Kershaw Command of 7.8
Buehler Command of 2.1
does that look like "Kershaw.... is trending in the wrong direction while Buehler is trending in the right direction" to you?
to anyone?
if Buehler somehow has learned the dark arts that allow for a subpar K/BB Ratio to be the elixir for increasing success - well, please sell some to my SPs, lol
finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1
I'm going to agree with Bene on this one - I'd go Buehler. Kershaw's spin rates are down - not as severely as Bauer, but still notably down...and I'm gonna trust the young guy who can pump it over 96 instead of the crafty vet who's not touching 91 much anymore with the sticky stuff going away. I have no doubts that a pitcher as experienced and smart as Kershaw could do some magical stuff with a baseball and Spider Tack.
I have one dark, nagging doubt about Buehler, though - he's already over 83 IP, and tracking for about 200 IP. Will the Dodgers really let him go there? It's highly probable the Dodgers will have a playoff spot essentially clinched by early to mid-August, so there won't be the need to push him hard.
Ah, the ol' insta jinx. Ah well, the smart folks amongst us knew Buehler has been trending in the right direction anyways. Good job, self.
Edit: Weirdly, tonight has followed the exact pattern that has been developing --- very, very little good contact off of Buehler. Only one "hard hit ball" all night long, and that was a 95 mph single off the bat of Ahmed in the 8th.
More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.
Comment