Rank Surprise Arms ROS

[Sour Masher]

How would you rank these arms the ROS and do any stand out as legit break outs or complete pumpkins? Full disclosure, I have three of them and can't give them away (Peralta, Manaea, and Wood), while I have found the others to be pretty much untouchable even at a premium. I guess everyone believes in their own break out guy and thinks others are fool's gold.

John Means
Carlos Rodon
Trevor Rogers
Freddy Peralta
Sean Manaea
Alex Wood
Wade Miley
Hector Ynoa

[revo]

One guy's opinion:

Peralta
Means
~~~~~~~
Rogers
Manaea
~~~~~~~
Rodon
Miley
~~~~~~~
Ynoa
Wood

[Sour Masher]

Interesting. I trust Wood's stuff more than Ynoa and Miley, but I guess his health holds him down.

[Ken]

How would you rank these arms the ROS and do any stand out as legit break outs or complete pumpkins? Full disclosure, I have three of them and can't give them away (Peralta, Manaea, and Wood), while I have found the others to be pretty much untouchable even at a premium. I guess everyone believes in their own break out guy and thinks others are fool's gold.

John Means
Carlos Rodon
Trevor Rogers
Freddy Peralta
Sean Manaea
Alex Wood
Wade Miley
Hector Ynoa

Great topic

I see a few different groupings here (and some guys fit in multiple groups).

One grouping:

The BABIP regression guys (most of your list ... because "hot" often means "short term lucky" at least in part):

Miley - BABIP hovers around .300 his whole career and then it's at .162 this year. Not going to stay that way. He will regress.
Ynoa (not sure who Hector is so lets do Huascar ) - .221 BABIP isn't sustainable for him. Also he's never in his career been able to suppress walks like this. I don't see it as sustainable personally, but ride the hot streak until it ends
Wood - consistent .270 BABIP in his career and then .208 this year. Not likely to stay there. Big issue with Wood is health though. I have zero confidence in it.
Means - .158 BABIP isn't going to stay there, however Means just looks like the same guy he's always been to me. Which is good.
Rodon - he's typically been a .320 BABIP guy so .183 isn't going to stay.

Another grouping, the "that's basically just what he is, right?" Group

Means - he's a good pitcher. Not going to be an ace, but he's someone every staff wants. His ERA will come up to the 3 area like his FIP, but I dont see why he can't still be good.
Manaea - he's been in the 9 K / 2 BB range before. ERA will come up some, but he's a solid SP3.
Peralta - Striking out tons of guys and still walking tons of guys - expect a rollercoaster. This is what he always has been. You'll have some great games and some terrible ones with him.

The "we've seen him fail before, why not again" group

Miley - prepare for the fall
Wood - prepare for the injury
Rodon - hmm, something is different here. It's an interesting mix. On one hand you have 5 years of evidence that this is not an ace, but then you have the 1.01 pedigree. As always the answer likely lies somewhere in the middle but the 13 K/9 makes him look a LOT different this year. There's a big *if* he can stay healthy clause here obviously.

The rookies

Ynoa - addressed above, he's over his head right now and I don't see it.
Rogers - man I've been impressed. He isn't going to end the season with a sub-2.00 ERA but ROY is definitely in play. I don't really see any reason why he'll regress significantly. Love him (thanks Pauly for the tip!)


So.... a ranking. They really belong in Tiers IMO, but if I'm forced to rank,

TIER 1 - get him on my team
Means (primarily due to consistency)
Rogers (biggest upside)
Rodon
....

Tier 2 - like him, but there's risk
Manaea
Peralta
....

Tier 3 - Pumpkin alert
Wood
Ynoa
Miley

[Sour Masher]

Which, if any, of these guys would you trade Luis Patino for?

[Sour Masher]

Great topic

I see a few different groupings here (and some guys fit in multiple groups).

One grouping:

The BABIP regression guys (most of your list ... because "hot" often means "short term lucky" at least in part):

Miley - BABIP hovers around .300 his whole career and then it's at .162 this year. Not going to stay that way. He will regress.
Ynoa (not sure who Hector is so lets do Huascar ) - .221 BABIP isn't sustainable for him. Also he's never in his career been able to suppress walks like this. I don't see it as sustainable personally, but ride the hot streak until it ends
Wood - consistent .270 BABIP in his career and then .208 this year. Not likely to stay there. Big issue with Wood is health though. I have zero confidence in it.
Means - .158 BABIP isn't going to stay there, however Means just looks like the same guy he's always been to me. Which is good.
Rodon - he's typically been a .320 BABIP guy so .183 isn't going to stay.

Another grouping, the "that's basically just what he is, right?" Group

Means - he's a good pitcher. Not going to be an ace, but he's someone every staff wants. His ERA will come up to the 3 area like his FIP, but I dont see why he can't still be good.
Manaea - he's been in the 9 K / 2 BB range before. ERA will come up some, but he's a solid SP3.
Peralta - Striking out tons of guys and still walking tons of guys - expect a rollercoaster. This is what he always has been. You'll have some great games and some terrible ones with him.

The "we've seen him fail before, why not again" group

Miley - prepare for the fall
Wood - prepare for the injury
Rodon - hmm, something is different here. It's an interesting mix. On one hand you have 5 years of evidence that this is not an ace, but then you have the 1.01 pedigree. As always the answer likely lies somewhere in the middle but the 13 K/9 makes him look a LOT different this year. There's a big *if* he can stay healthy clause here obviously.

The rookies

Ynoa - addressed above, he's over his head right now and I don't see it.
Rogers - man I've been impressed. He isn't going to end the season with a sub-2.00 ERA but ROY is definitely in play. I don't really see any reason why he'll regress significantly. Love him (thanks Pauly for the tip!)


So.... a ranking. They really belong in Tiers IMO, but if I'm forced to rank,

TIER 1 - get him on my team
Means (primarily due to consistency)
Rogers (biggest upside)
Rodon
....

Tier 2 - like him, but there's risk
Manaea
Peralta
....

Tier 3 - Pumkpin alert
Wood
Ynoa
Miley

Great breakdown, Ken. I've tried to get Rogers, who I trust the most of those I don't have, but his owner is fully bought in with Rogers being a true break out, so, I can't swing it. The Means owner never deals, but I will keep at it. Maybe I can play up that BABIP of his.

[Ken]

Which, if any, of these guys would you trade Luis Patino for?

Definitely Rogers or Means.
Probably not most of the others. Rodon is close.

[joncarlos]

Trevor Rogers - really good... only worry about innings
John Means - really good... only worry about Baltimore heat in the summer
Carlos Rodon -really good... only worry about health
----
Sean Manaea - he is what he is, expect a bit of regression
Hector Ynoa (Huescar, right?) - he has 2 amazing pitches and ... shrug. He's the real wild card here. I'd gamble on the higher end just in case.
Wade Miley - seems fine to me, expect a bit of regression in the summer heat
Freddy Peralta - expect some fade
---
Alex Wood - don't expect him to stay healthy

[Gregg]

Interesting read...good stuff.

I think some of it has to do with what we need individually. Sometimes lightening in a bottle, sometimes consistency. Sometimes what we can afford.

Do we assume that a 22 year old Ynoa can't learn/improve how to limit walks?

Rogers
Means
Ynoa

Rodon
Manaea

Peralta
Wood Miley (hope for the best prepare for the worst)

[Sour Masher]

Interesting how divergent opinions are on Peralta.

[Ken]

Do we assume that a 22 year old Ynoa can't learn/improve how to limit walks?

It's possible. From my experience the vast majority *don't* improve significantly relative to their history.

In some ways it's similar to when a team drafts a player and tries to rebuild his swing. You can rebuild it to remove the problem you are seeing, but then you are removing some of the natural swing that made you draft that player there. Same kind of thing with pitchers, you can certainly change their approach, but do you lose effectiveness elsewhere?

Obviously "improving" a player is the goal, that's why you have coaches, but in the majority of cases players tend to be who they are. Which is nice for us as fantasy baseball enthusiasts because there's *some* level of predictability.

Tyler Glasnow went from a 4-5 BB guy to mid 3s. I don't think he's ever going to be a 2.0 BB/9 guy, but he improved enough to become a very good pitcher. Mitch Keller is still trying.

[Ken]

Interesting how divergent opinions are on Peralta.

With 14 K/9 he has huge upside, I just fear the control issues biting him. Some similarities to Robbie Ray.

[Pauly]

Normally I buy a guy with Means’ skills and actually had a really interesting back and forth about him with Ken in the preseason.....so here comes the but: Recency bias is at its very strongest point right now with him for very obvious reasons, and I would fall back to my preseason analysis on Means, which was: I think he is a good pitcher in perhaps the worst possible situation outside of colorado. I would never feel comfortable starting him in Yankee Stadium, in Fenway park, or in Buffalo, or in Dunedin Florida, or in Baltimore against any of those AL East teams. He just doesn’t get to play against the strikeout-happy Seattle Mariners often enough for me to ever trust the guy until he gets traded.

For those reasons, I would have Rogers, Peralta and Rodon easily and comfortably ahead of Means; in fact, if there has ever been a time to sell Means...this is IT.

[Ken]

Normally I buy a guy with Means’ skills and actually had a really interesting back and forth about him with Ken in the preseason.....so here comes the but: Recency bias is at its very strongest point right now with him for very obvious reasons, and I would fall back to my preseason analysis on Means, which was: I think he is a good pitcher in perhaps the worst possible situation outside of colorado. I would never feel comfortable starting him in Yankee Stadium, in Fenway park, or in Buffalo, or in Dunedin Florida, or in Baltimore against any of those AL East teams. He just doesn’t get to play against the strikeout-happy Seattle Mariners often enough for me to ever trust the guy until he gets traded.

For those reasons, I would have Rogers, Peralta and Rodon easily and comfortably ahead of Means; in fact, if there has ever been a time to sell Means...this is IT.

Agree on some and disagree on other points here. If you can sell at "ace" level (and not just really good pitcher level), then you are right. I don't know that anyone is buying at that level but when you find one, do it, absolutely.

I don't buy into the matchups stuff as you do though as we have discussed. For example, you are benching Means when he's 2-1 in 3 games @ Fenway with a 3.98 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 17Ks and just 3BB. I'm starting him.

The reality is all pitchers are going to have ups and downs. When you play the matchups too heavily you miss the good games.

And are you benching Peralta, who you had easily and comfortably ahead of Means, in STL where he's 0-1 with a 5.4 ERA? Are you benching him at Wrigley where's his ERA is approaching 5 with a 1.5 WHIP? That's two division opponents.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I like Ynoa, Rondon and Peralta best.

Because I own several shares.

And I want them to be best ROS


You're welcome for the expert analysis.