Rank Surprise Arms ROS

[Pauly]

Agree on some and disagree on other points here. If you can sell at "ace" level (and not just really good pitcher level), then you are right. I don't know that anyone is buying at that level but when you find one, do it, absolutely.

I don't buy into the matchups stuff as you do though as we have discussed. For example, you are benching Means when he's 2-1 in 3 games @ Fenway with a 3.98 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 17Ks and just 3BB. I'm starting him.

The reality is all pitchers are going to have ups and downs. When you play the matchups too heavily you miss the good games.

And are you benching Peralta, who you had easily and comfortably ahead of Means, in STL where he's 0-1 with a 5.4 ERA? Are you benching him at Wrigley where's his ERA is approaching 5 with a 1.5 WHIP? That's two division opponents.

You have a point in Means' numbers against Boston, but even with those numbers, I highly doubt you would be comfortable laying $$ on the line that Means meets those expectations the next time he is starting in Fenway. And that is still a 4 ERA. It is playing with fire in the same way as starting German Marquez every time he pitches no matter the venue, but I digress.

For the record, I was a huge investor in Peralta this season because he is a great strikeout pitcher AND NL Central parks and lineups (sans DH especially) are nowhere near as scary as AL East. That said, I projected him as a follower or a long reliever honestly.

There is a point where great pitchers overcome matchups (the set it and forget it guys), but for everyone else, I am a big proponent of avoiding ugly pitching matchups, and we definitely differ on that, but that is why I would never draft John Means and be faced with the problem of when to start and bench him.

[Ken]

You have a point in Means' numbers against Boston, but even with those numbers, I highly doubt you would be comfortable laying $$ on the line that Means meets those expectations the next time he is starting in Fenway. And that is still a 4 ERA. It is playing with fire in the same way as starting German Marquez every time he pitches no matter the venue, but I digress.

For the record, I was a huge investor in Peralta this season because he is a great strikeout pitcher AND NL Central parks and lineups (sans DH especially) are nowhere near as scary as AL East.

There is a point where great pitchers overcome matchups (the set it and forget it guys), but for everyone else, I am a big proponent of avoiding ugly pitching matchups, and we definitely differ on that, but that is why I would never draft John Means and be faced with the problem of when to start and bench him.

I consider those matchup issues as double count from an accounting perspective. Yes, there are bad matchups, but those are already accounted for in the overall numbers that you see - both historical and projected. Especially for a player like Means who will be facing the same teams this year that he's always faced. So for every bad matchup you have an equally good matchup in order to get him to those final numbers. If you truly have a deep staff and you can play the matchups, sure, but it's unwise IMO to sub in a replacement level pitcher just because he's facing an easier opponent. Been bitten by that over and over. For example when Means faced NYY on 4/7 you would have used Keuchel against Seattle instead. And your ERA would have suffered in that swap.

I don't remember your take on Tyler Glasnow - do you bench him against the AL East too?

[Pauly]

I don't remember your take on Tyler Glasnow - do you bench him against the AL East too?

Glasnow is in set it and forget it territory.

[Ken]

Glasnow is in set it and forget it territory.

OK now we're getting somewhere.

What differentiates those two? It can't really be facing NYY and BOS. They both do that. Why not set and forget Means?

If I told you you could have a spot in your rotation put up a 3.5 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 160 K and 13 W if you just left it alone and didn't touch it would you take it? That's Means' career rates for 180 IP, and to be frank he's been objectively better than his career numbers of late. Why is Glasnow a set and forget but those numbers aren't.

[Pauly]

OK now we're getting somewhere.

What differentiates those two? It can't really be facing NYY and BOS. They both do that. Why not set and forget Means?

If I told you you could have a spot in your rotation put up a 3.5 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 160 K and 13 W if you just left it alone and didn't touch it would you take it? That's Means' career rates for 180 IP, and to be frank he's been objectively better than his career numbers of late. Why is Glasnow a set and forget but those numbers aren't.

Because Glasnow is a far superior pitcher who gets way more Ks, gives up fewer runs and pitches on a superior team?

Glasnow 13.68 k/9; FIP 2.80 and WHIP 0.89
Means: 9.78; FIP 2.99 and WHIP 0.67 thanks to the no hitter.

The ROS projections are even more divergent:
Steamer says ROS FIP for Glasnow is 3.35 vs. 4.62 for Means, which seems to check out to me.

[Ken]

Because Glasnow is a far superior pitcher who gets way more Ks, gives up fewer runs and pitches on a superior team?

Glasnow has 16 career wins in 42 starts for TBR.
Means has 18 career wins in 44 career starts pitching for BALT. I'm not sure "superior team" makes the difference you'd hope it would.

Glasnow 13.68 k/9; FIP 2.80 and WHIP 0.89
Means: 9.78; FIP 2.99 and WHIP 0.67 thanks to the no hitter.

Glasnow strikes out more, about the same on FIP, and Means is better at preventing runners. I'm failing to see far superior for either guy.

(and I'm not sure what "thanks to the no hitter" is supposed to mean in this context - is that supposed to be a negative)

The ROS projections are even more divergent:
Steamer says ROS FIP for Glasnow is 3.35 vs. 4.62 for Means, which seems to check out to me.

I'd take Glasnow over Means due to the Ks, but they aren't as far apart as you are making it out to be IMO. And Peralta "easily and comfortably ahead of" Means feels off to me.

[Sour Masher]

I am a sucker for Ks, so I too put Glasnow a good bit ahead of Means, and is primarily why I also like Peralta about as much as Means. But that comes from me playing primarily points leagues, though I have Peralta in the roto league, not the points league, and I am still in no hurry to sell. But that comes from the "I'm right" bias--I've been high on him as a sleeper for years.

[Ken]

It's fair, K's are the right place to be. You guys are right.

I guess my questions go back to why bench Means against NYY and BOS though. He's not a streamer, he's a solid, solid starter. Anyway sorry for veering off topic slightly there.

[Sour Masher]

It's fair, K's are the right place to be. You guys are right.

I guess my questions go back to why bench Means against NYY and BOS though. He's not a streamer, he's a solid, solid starter. Anyway sorry for veering off topic slightly there.

For me, the set and forget guys are not necessarily just true aces. It is about how consistent they are. So far, this year, Means has been consistent. He hasn't had one game that will destroy your ratios. Until he does, I'd roll him out. Conversely, I have German Marquez and he is the opposite of set and forget. He end numbers should end up just fine, but his game to game numbers are about as variable as they come.

[madducks]

With 14 K/9 he has huge upside, I just fear the control issues biting him. Some similarities to Robbie Ray.

That's actually a good comp for Peralta.

[Bene Futuis]

Rogers
Means
~~~~
Peralta
Rodon
Ynoa / Manaea
~~~~
Miley
Wood


No way to trust Wood's health. Always loved Manaea but ditto on the health concerns. If Ynoa can keep his walks down, his stuff is super legit but the production has never really come to fruition - maybe this is his coming out party. Same with Peralta. And Rodon, too.

[Sour Masher]

Is trading Manaea and Wood for Maeda is a no brainer? His lack of command is concerning. I'm not sure how long it will take for him to get it together.

[ThatRogue]

I'll comment on the two pitchers I have in my main league:

As I understand it, Ynoa has added velocity to his fastball AND is using his sinker & change-up as effective (though infrequent: ~11% of the time) alternatives to his fastball/slider combination. As he's been very good for my team thus far, my hope is that represents growth on the part of a young pitcher honing his craft. From watching a couple of his starts, he appears very composed on the mound with the presence of a more experienced veteran. I also saw his bad start in Chicago. It was a very cold day and he kept blowing on and shaking his hand, so it appeared he had a lot of trouble getting a feel for his pitches and locating where he wanted. He left too many offerings out over the plate and the Cubs teed off. He looked much better against them the second time, and in every start since.

Regarding Peralta, he's also changed his pitch mix...even more dramatically than Ynoa. He now throws his slider far more often than he did when he broke it out last season. According to statcast, last year's pitch mix was about 66% FB, 30% CB and 4% SL, while this year's mix is 56% FB, 34% SL, 6% CU and 4% CB. Both of his breaking pitches generate a lot of swing and miss and adding the change-up is probably helping him keep hitters off-balance. He still walks more batters that you'd like (4.2 BB/9) but his strikeout rate is more of what is expected of elite RPs, not full-time SPs (14.1 K/9). Considering he came up throwing about 78% FB and 20% CB during 2018 & 2019, the shift in pitch mix is a testament to what the Brewers have done with their young pitchers recently (Woodruff, Barnes & Peralta), and as with Ynoa, I'm hopeful this is a sign of progression and maturity.

[Ken]

Is trading Manaea and Wood for Maeda is a no brainer? His lack of command is concerning. I'm not sure how long it will take for him to get it together.

Not a no-brainer, in fact I would not make that trade.

[Sour Masher]

Not a no-brainer, in fact I would not make that trade.

Now discussing Wood and Clase for Maeda and Montero. Just debating if the RP downgrade is more than the SP upgrade. Only considering it, because I have Karinchak and I think he should be the closer, and hope he will be eventually.