Mychal Givens vs Sean Doolittle

[whalewang]

Going forward, who do you like more between Mychal Givens & Sean Doolittle for saves only.

[joncarlos]

I guess I'd go with Doolittle since 25% of the Reds saves might be better than 80% of the Rockies saves

[chancellor]

I guess I'd go with Doolittle since 25% of the Reds saves might be better than 80% of the Rockies saves

This.

[Ken]

I'd wager pretty strongly that 80% of Rockies saves is > 25% of Reds saves. There are very few examples in the last 30 years where 25% of one team's saves are more than 80% of another's. Even bad teams tend to get saves because they don't win by as many runs.

[whalewang]

I'd wager pretty strongly that 80% of Rockies saves is > 25% of Reds saves. There are very few examples in the last 30 years where 25% of one team's saves are more than 80% of another's. Even bad teams tend to get saves because they don't win by as many runs.

Ken, you didn't disappoint. I literally was waiting for you to make this exact comment.

With that being said, do you have a preference for saves for the RoY?

[Ken]

Ken, you didn't disappoint. I literally was waiting for you to make this exact comment.

With that being said, do you have a preference for saves for the RoY?

Neither of them wins Rookie of the Year sorry



Of those I'd take Givens because I see an easier path to the majority of saves with Bard struggling

[Gregg]

I'd wager pretty strongly that 80% of Rockies saves is > 25% of Reds saves. There are very few examples in the last 30 years where 25% of one team's saves are more than 80% of another's. Even bad teams tend to get saves because they don't win by as many runs.

You beat me to it. I would make the same wager and I quit gambling.

[Judge Jude]

heh, I own both (and Floro) and will dump one of the three next week.

the Reds' pen in particular is now well-rested, so let's hope they have a couple of small leads this weekend.

I'm more focused on 2022, so am leaning dumping the older Doolittle. even just for 2021, I'd suggest the same but we may be about to learn more about both pens very soon.

[chancellor]

You beat me to it. I would make the same wager and I quit gambling.

Fair enough, I was being snarky, but the answer isn't "80%", it's "Mychal Givens". IN 2019, he accumulated 11 saves by simply being less hideous than all the other Baltimore bullpen alternatives, but it's not like his 4.57 ERA/1.19 WHIP was anything great. Baltimore thought so much of his quality work in 2019 that they turned over saves to Cole Sulser and Cesar Valdez for the most part in 2020. He's a guy who's a 3.5- 4.0 BB/9 pitcher with a lowish GB tilt in Coors Field.

My POV? The odds of Givens surviving long enough as a closer to get a shot at even 25% of the Rockies saves is low. The odds of him damaging your ERA is high.

[Ken]

Fair enough, I was being snarky, but the answer isn't "80%", it's "Mychal Givens". IN 2019, he accumulated 11 saves by simply being less hideous than all the other Baltimore bullpen alternatives

Isn't this the same situation? Bard is struggggling. Givens is the only other guy in the bullpen with closer experience, no?

My POV? The odds of Givens surviving long enough as a closer to get a shot at even 25% of the Rockies saves is low. The odds of him damaging your ERA is high.

Weird, RP make very little difference in your rate stats. The expected delta in rate stats between Givens and Doolittle * their expected IP is almost negligible. This is an odd reason to start one over the other. You'd almost have to be in an exact tie in one of these rate stats for it to matter, and then only by 1 point in the standings really. Much more likely that Saves are the important factor.

[Ken]

Fair enough, I was being snarky, but the answer isn't "80%", it's "Mychal Givens". IN 2019, he accumulated 11 saves by simply being less hideous than all the other Baltimore bullpen alternatives, but it's not like his 4.57 ERA/1.19 WHIP was anything great. Baltimore thought so much of his quality work in 2019 that they turned over saves to Cole Sulser and Cesar Valdez for the most part in 2020. He's a guy who's a 3.5- 4.0 BB/9 pitcher with a lowish GB tilt in Coors Field.

Isn't this the same situation? Bard is struggggling. Givens is the only other guy in the bullpen with closer experience right?

My POV? The odds of Givens surviving long enough as a closer to get a shot at even 25% of the Rockies saves is low. The odds of him damaging your ERA is high.

Weird, RP make very little difference in your rate stats. The expected delta in rate stats between Givens and Doolittle * their expected IP is almost negligible. This is an odd reason to start one over the other. You'd almost have to be in an exact tie in one of these rate stats for it to matter, and then only by 1 point in the standings really. Much more likely that Saves are the important factor.

Also, the question was saves only, so there's that.

[chancellor]

Also, the question was saves only, so there's that.

True. So I see it as Colorado has 80% of their saves still available and Givens has a 20% chance of holding the job, for a risk-adjusted total of 16% of the saves. Doolittle might only get 25% of the saves available, but has a 75% chance of holding the job, for a risk-adjusted total of 18.8% of the saves. And Cincinnati should provide more saves opportunities, though that's arguable.

[Ken]

75% is high on Doolittle. He has more than a 25% chance of just having an injury. Much less his poor performance risk.

Also where is the other 80% from the Rockies pen? I get that you have extreme pessimism towards Givens but someone else has to pick up the rest and there isn’t really anyone strong in that pen.

[Teenwolf]

75% is high on Doolittle. He has more than a 25% chance of just having an injury. Much less his poor performance risk.

Also where is the other 80% from the Rockies pen? I get that you have extreme pessimism towards Givens but someone else has to pick up the rest and there isn’t really anyone strong in that pen.

I agree with this analysis.

I picked up Givens as a $1 reserve in my NL league, amd would have probably dropped him by now, but the Oberg injury put him as the clear "next up" after Bard.

Givens carries some risk of being traded out of a job, same as Rodriguez and other closers on rebuilding teams, which Cincy seems less likely to trade away Doolittle, and more incentivized not to give saves to their younger RP's. So that's a point in Doolittle's favor.. But as far as competition, I feel better about Givens among the awful Rockies pen than I do about Doolittle in a stacked Reds pen. I know they've been bad early on, but there's more talent ready to overtake the Cincy job than Colorado, and contenders have more incentive to go with the best option, period.

Tally up the pts and its a slight lean to Givens for me for saves for the next 6 weeks at least, but if both ended up with the closers role, I'd lean to Doolittle for better ratios. Doolittle's fastball is back up 3 MPH to his 2019 level, and the under the hood metrics look better than Givens.

[cavebird]

Interesting analysis. I agree that Givens is more likely to hold the job longer than Doolittle given the lack of competition. I don't think the trade risk is too high with Givens---he would have to pitch well, rather than just get saves to have anyone actually want to trade for him. There is also the factor that the Reds will likely have more save ops than Colorado, but that might also help Givens in that it gives Doolittle more opportunities to lose the job.