Five Wins in a day

[Teenwolf]

I know some of you guys have incredible recall of events in your league history, so I'm curious if anybody else has ever had 5 pitcher wins in 1 day. I can't remember ever seeing 5 wins in a day, but it happened for me yesterday in 20 team dynasty.

Gant, Eovaldi, Pineda, Means, Darvish. Combined 29.1 IP, 17 H, 13 BB, 33 K, 6 ER..... 5 W.

Having 5 SP line up to pitch the same day only happens a few times a season at most. The odds that all 5 would hit a W seem well below 5%. Even if you give them all a 50% probability of a W, that's 1/64th in finite math, right? But their actual odds of W were probably closer to 35%, making it extremely rare.

Anyway, I had a fun time watching game scores. Briefly the gamescore showed Darin Ruf hit a grand slam vs Tim Hill with 3 of Darvish's base runners on, but I guess it was overruled or something. Weird, but a fun surprise when it disappeared.

[revo]

That's pretty crazy.

[Hornsby]

I know some of you guys have incredible recall of events in your league history, so I'm curious if anybody else has ever had 5 pitcher wins in 1 day. I can't remember ever seeing 5 wins in a day, but it happened for me yesterday in 20 team dynasty.

Gant, Eovaldi, Pineda, Means, Darvish. Combined 29.1 IP, 17 H, 13 BB, 33 K, 6 ER..... 5 W.

Having 5 SP line up to pitch the same day only happens a few times a season at most. The odds that all 5 would hit a W seem well below 5%. Even if you give them all a 50% probability of a W, that's 1/64th in finite math, right? But their actual odds of W were probably closer to 35%, making it extremely rare.

Anyway, I had a fun time watching game scores. Briefly the gamescore showed Darin Ruf hit a grand slam vs Tim Hill with 3 of Darvish's base runners on, but I guess it was overruled or something. Weird, but a fun surprise when it disappeared.

Yeah, the Ruf "homer" was clearly foul on replay. It took them less than 30 seconds to overrule the call on the field. So Yu got a well deserved win.

[Teenwolf]

Yeah, the Ruf "homer" was clearly foul on replay. It took them less than 30 seconds to overrule the call on the field. So Yu got a well deserved win.

Nice!

Also, Gant is my worst pitcher, and I've had him benched pretty much all year, but a matchup with the Pirates was the impetus I needed. He had the worst ratios of the five, 1.8 era, 1.6 whip, only 2 K, but W's are hard to collect, so I'm thrilled.

[Judge Jude]

this wasn't THAT hard to do 20 years ago. quite rare, but possible.

now - you may never see it again, given how few innings starting pitchers go.

[Teenwolf]

this wasn't THAT hard to do 20 years ago. quite rare, but possible.

now - you may never see it again, given how few innings starting pitchers go.

Good point. I might have thought it very difficult but possible in the 90's or early 2000's, but with IP going way down, it's nearly impossible today. My 5 winners didn't even average 6 IP!

[Ken]

This one is begging for me to analyze.

First, lets make some assumptions

Assumption 1, lets assume an average staff. Obviously the better the staff, the better the odds, but lets look at average
Assumption 2, for ease of analysis lets use data on the rest of 2021, there's lots of data out there on 2021
Assumption 3, lets assume fantasy teams just set their best 6 starters and leave them in, streaming is a mess
Assumption 4, this isn't going to happen on a Monday or Thursday. The odds are just so much lower. Lets assume a full slate of 15 games.

Looking at the top ~120 starters (20 team * 6 per team) the rest of the year, steamer projects 872 wins for those 120 pitchers rest of season. There are a total of 1968 games left to play. So a 20 team fantasy relevant starter wins right at 44.3% of all games.

The odds of the winning pitcher of a particular game being started on a fantasy team in your league is 44.3%. The odds of that pitcher being on your team is 1/20. So the odds of your pitcher winning a particular random game is around 2.215%. Winning 5 random games would happen (1-.02215)^5, or 1 out of 187,366,965 sets of 5 random games

On a Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday there are typically 15 games. So there are 3003 combinations of 5 random games in those 15 games. Using our ~1/187K note above, we come to ~1 out of every 62,393 full game slates has 5 winners from your team.

In a particular year there are about ~110 days where we have a full slate of games. So in a particular year you get 110 shots at that 1/62K odds, meaning you should hit one out of every 567 seasons of fantasy.

To get to a 50% confidence level of having one of those days, you need to play 400 seasons of fantasy. I play on average 5-10 leagues a year, so lets talk in 2078, I bet I'll have one by then.

edit - 20 team dynasty, I had to redo some numbers

[cavebird]

I'll be long dead by 2078, and even if alive, I'll never have one. Pitchers hate me. But remember, you can have random reliever wins, so I think the numbers are a bit off.

[Ken]

I'll be long dead by 2078, and even if alive, I'll never have one. Pitchers hate me. But remember, you can have random reliever wins, so I think the numbers are a bit off.

Shoulda known you’d try to discredit. You can set your clock to it.

From the OP “ Having 5 SP line up to pitch the same day”..... that’s why I focused on starters.

But it was really all for fun. Thanks for crapping on it

[cavebird]

That's fun for you? Then I am not crapping on anything fun, at least. But I did point out a legitimate point (actually, two, because I will be dead in 2078, you can enjoy that).

[Ken]

That's fun for you? Then I am not crapping on anything fun, at least. But I did point out a legitimate point (actually, two, because I will be dead in 2078, you can enjoy that).

No you rarely have legitimate points now crawl back in your cave

[Teenwolf]

This one is begging for me to analyze.

First, lets make some assumptions

Assumption 1, lets assume an average staff. Obviously the better the staff, the better the odds, but lets look at average
Assumption 2, for ease of analysis lets use data on the rest of 2021, there's lots of data out there on 2021
Assumption 3, lets assume fantasy teams just set their best 6 starters and leave them in, streaming is a mess
Assumption 4, this isn't going to happen on a Monday or Thursday. The odds are just so much lower. Lets assume a full slate of 15 games.

Looking at the top ~120 starters (20 team * 6 per team) the rest of the year, steamer projects 872 wins for those 120 pitchers rest of season. There are a total of 1968 games left to play. So a 20 team fantasy relevant starter wins right at 44.3% of all games.

The odds of the winning pitcher of a particular game being started on a fantasy team in your league is 44.3%. The odds of that pitcher being on your team is 1/20. So the odds of your pitcher winning a particular random game is around 2.215%. Winning 5 random games would happen (1-.02215)^5, or 1 out of 187,366,965 sets of 5 random games

On a Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday there are typically 15 games. So there are 3003 combinations of 5 random games in those 15 games. Using our ~1/187K note above, we come to ~1 out of every 62,393 full game slates has 5 winners from your team.

In a particular year there are about ~110 days where we have a full slate of games. So in a particular year you get 110 shots at that 1/62K odds, meaning you should hit one out of every 567 seasons of fantasy.

To get to a 50% confidence level of having one of those days, you need to play 400 seasons of fantasy. I play on average 5-10 leagues a year, so lets talk in 2078, I bet I'll have one by then.

edit - 20 team dynasty, I had to redo some numbers

I really enjoyed this breakdown of the long odds. Thanks!

I believe I may have seen 5 wins in a day at some point through extra MR vulture wins many years ago, but never through 5 games started have I seen 5/5 wins.

[cavebird]

No you rarely have legitimate points now crawl back in your cave

So it is not legitimate to point out that relief wins can contribute to five win days? News to me. Oh well, at least my cave scratching will have the right inputs, even if the math is wrong.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I had 5 pitchers pitch exactly 1 inning each and K 1 in that inning today. It may never, ever happen again. Prove me wrong.

[Ken]

So it is not legitimate to point out that relief wins can contribute to five win days? News to me. Oh well, at least my cave scratching will have the right inputs, even if the math is wrong.

No it's not legitimate, as I stated earlier, in the original post he was referring specifically to starters. Try to keep up and stop shitting all over good threads like this one from Jesse

Come to think of it, bat shit and caves go hand in hand so no surprise!