Judge Jude's 2021 Anatomy of an Auction

[Judge Jude]

yes, focus on that deal would be Rojas.

deal for Hoerner seems off, but now he is sniffing around Soria at 4 and I said I was fine with that as a substitute so we'll see.

[Judge Jude]

and there it is....

wound up giving up Segura 17 and Soria 4 and an April 2nd-round pick (circa 15-16) for Hoerner 5 and Suter 10 and an April 1st-round pick (could be anywhere from 4 to 7 probably). all players S-2 contracts this year.

so one less chair, and I still can deal Nola 32 - though everyone wanted Segura

excruciating patience may finally be paying off after 3 dark months

[Judge Jude]

I should have been clearer - my Option A combines your fist two deals together. Per Option C, you misspelled bum "Crick". I like Option C just a tick more than the others with Josh Rojas. He gives you positional flexibility and a legit power/speed combo that could improve and is already pretty decent. Urias isn't a bad get, but for the extra three bucks and a year, Rojas' extra speed is probably worth it.

with Segura traded away, counter I got is
Nola 32 and Pollock 17 for Schitt Crick 1 and Rojas 8 (or Urias or Belt)

per above, I am "lousy" with MI already. Rojas already qualifies at OF for 2022 as well as 2B-SS, but he's not as valuable there, of course.

have 3.5 W pts in an 11-team league - but trail the leader by only 5 wins. Nola has been dicey of late, but as of now I want to try to at least climb to 9th to grab the 4th April pick (order goes 6-7-8-9-10-11 off order of finish this year).

[chancellor]

I'd take the deal and be happy with Rojas at 8 in your OF. I don't see a 4th pick being more valuable than Rojas at 8, but that's me.

[Judge Jude]

so as the trade deadline nears, I need:
a) somebody exciting to arrive from AL
b) to be in last place on Wednesday morning so I have the first pick of those AL arrivals

incredibly, I am TIED for last place with an owner ramming it HARD into reverse. am fortunate that he didn't deal away lame ducks Realmuto, McMahon, Bellinger, and overpriced Machado til today, at least.

I have tried all sorts of machinations in a bid to both be last on Wednesday - but still be in position after that to move up quite a bit in the final standings to improve my April draft pick. for example, I need to avoid wins so I sat on Nola and SGray for an extra week, and subbed in Neidert for W machine Suter, who I waived, so as to have a blank spot this past week with Neidert demoted by Marlins. also held off on activating Carrasco and Graterol til next week as I see how things play out.

have wannabe closers Hembree, Bender, and Bednar in the pen.

cringed as I saw my Pollock swipe a sack last night to knock me out of last place. Pollock, Bader, and now Votto all are on preposterous rolls of late, leaving my squad just ahead of a contender in HR and RBI - neither of us are happy there.

I reserved both Chisholm and Jankowski today precisely because I am afraid they will be reactivated tomorrow and then resume sack-swiping. had them replaced by LGarcia (power, not speed) and Cain (returning from hamstring injury, so take it easy, fella). will bring back Jazz and Jank next week - when I'm trying to be good, finally!

has been a challenge in a no-bench league, and I may set the league record for transactions (at least one every week of the season, due to injuries mainly). oh, and if I can claim last til next Thursday, I can claim any new closers not already owned.

lastly, I drafted Kumar Rocker (ruh roh) and Giants OF Matos with first two picks in farm draft recently.
they join Luciano, HRamos, Carroll, Baty, McLain, and BMarquez.
will be annoyed if Rocker doesn't sign, but I also have 3 first-round farm picks come April (all likely to be mid-round) and we can only own 8 farmhands.

#rebuilding

[Judge Jude]

have now been offered:

IL-Gonsolin 5-S1 next year (and bum Widener) for unkeepable KGibson and SGray (possible keeper at 16-S1) and farmhand Baty

I guess I'd have to love me some Gonsolin, though my farm is kind of bursting at the seams and so are my no-bench P slots (on Thurs will add Finnegan or Floro for Hembree, an upgrade there)

[chancellor]

For you, what this really comes down to is Gonsolin and $11 worth Sonny Gray. I'd say yes. It's not risk free - Gray is a pretty solid lock to have a 3.75 - 4.25 ERA, 3.5-4.0 BB/9, 10.5 - 11.5 K/9, and a WHIP in the upper 1.2s to mid 1.3s, and he has an assured starting role on a decent team.

Gonsolin had control issues this year, but I actually think he'll settle out about in the same walk and K rate as Gray has, and he's in a more forgiving park with a better team. I think he's about four years younger than Gray and under team control for a while. My gut read is Bauer is not going to pitch for the Dodgers again, so I think Gonsolin is locked into the #4/5 SP slot for the foreseeable future.

If I'm reading your roster right, that would give you TWalker, Gonsolin, and KH Kim for $17, and AWood for whatever price he's at. That will be nice, I think.

[Ken]

My issue with Gonsolin is that he's not really a starter. He's gone 6 innings only a handful of times in his mlb career.

If he's left as a minimal innings type guy, he's not going to get you the strikeouts or wins that you'll want across a full season.

If he's stretched out, his ratios are going to suffer going through the lineup the 3rd time (and his 4.45 FIP, 1.46 WHIP this year suggest that's a scary proposition).

I guess you could say he's going to improve, but he's 27 already, this isn't a young prospect.

I don't know, he's always felt like fools gold to me.

[Bene Futuis]

I think the real issue with Gonsolin is that he's hurt and it's unclear just how hurt he is. The Hamels signing was not a good sign regarding his health, imo. If healthy, he's a very, very solid pitcher.

[Ken]

I think the real issue with Gonsolin is that he's hurt and it's unclear just how hurt he is. The Hamels signing was not a good sign regarding his health, imo. If healthy, he's a very, very solid pitcher.

Isn't he always hurt?

[Judge Jude]

thanks, guys.

I'm higher on Price in 2022 for 3 units than anyone on Earth, lol.
AWood wood - er, would, be 10 units.

may trade both Nola and Gibson, though I think I can make some hay in terms of moving up in the standings to help my April 2022 draft slotting. with no bench, decision due on Carrasco and Graterol next week so maybe I dump Nola and Gibson for yet another pick or something....

[Bene Futuis]

Price has looked a little better recently but he was a batting practice pitcher early on. His stuff doesn't really look major league level right now, to be honest. He gets squared up on with alarming frequency. I'd take Gonsolin at $5 way, way before Price at pretty much any, er, price. Gonsolin probably maxes out at a #4 but can still provide value in an NL only. Watch reports on his health, though - recent news seemed pretty pessimistic to me.

[Judge Jude]

HQ values on my possibly keepable players.
the actual year-to-date, sure.
the projected ROS, hmm:

player, price, value YTD, value ROS

C Stallings $2 $7 $7
1B Votto $10 $20 $26
2B LGarcia $10 $-2 $15 (WTF)
2B Solano $2 $10 $10
2S Chisholm $5 $17 $7 (WTF)
2S Hoerner $5 $6 $11
OF Pollock $17 $21 $22
OF Bader $1 $12 $20 (WTF)
OF Cain $14 $6 $17 (WTF)
OF Daza $1 $9 $8

SP KH Kim $2 $7 $3
SP AWood $10 $10 $10
SP Price $3 $0 $3
SP Carrasco $16 $-4 $16 (WTF)
RP David Bednar $10 $5 $10

(SP SGray $16 $0 $9)
(SP TWalker $10 $7 $8)

can keep up to 11 next spring. would like to add another candidate by dumping Nola and/or Gibson as it now looks like I finish 9th (so 4th farm pick) with or without them

[Judge Jude]

ok, wound up dumping unkeepables Nola 32-S2 and Kyle Gibson 50-S2 (FAAB) for two bums (ZDavies 11-S2 and Lester 10-S2 FA pickup) and the other guy's No. 1 April 2022 farm pick.

I now own FOUR of the 11 April 1st-round picks, and the order of the draft off the previous season's standings goes:
6-7-8-9-10-11-5-4-3-2-1

I own the pick of the guy whose team should finish last, so that's the 6th pick (5 money slots)
my own pick will be 4th or 5th
the other two are... interesting

forgetting about the runaway winner leaves us with 7 teams competing to finish 2-3-4-5-6-7-8 in the standings. obviously I want the teams of my other two picks to finish 6th and 7th, to give me the top 2 farm picks (I had the first in April and the first two in July).

so the "main 7 standings" are
(money slots)
72
71
70 (will be my pick if I want it)
66.5 (I own,currently would thus be the 7th pick)

(farm priority slots)
64.5
63 (I own, currently would thus be the 2nd pick)
56

the team with 64.5 points just announced he is inclined to dump (10 days til trade deadline), which I'm not thrilled about but hey, it's his team. helping any of the 70-71-72 point teams is in my interest, as if they finish 2-3-4 then I am guaranteed a 1-2-3 pick
I am in trade talks with the 70 points team

my picks as of today are 2, 5, 6, 7 - and I would have 8 as well if I make the deal below.
no chance I have room for all of these picks, as my max-8-slots stable includes
Luciano, HRamos, Matos, CCarroll, Baty, and McLain (plus Ps Rocker and BMarquez, but...)

still, several draft-pick loving owners have plenty of slots and likely next spring would be happy to do a 2-for-1 swap

[Judge Jude]

how's this for a trade offer after I unloaded Nola and Gibson elsewhere, lol (would be for my 5th of the 11th farm picks next April)

"Interested in your sloppy seconds. Would take Carrasco and Wood for May, Treinen and a draft pick."