Judge Jude's 2021 Anatomy of an Auction

[Judge Jude]

cost goes down for ....?

and

06.01... Cardinals placed RHP Jack Flaherty on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain.
Spin: Flaherty suffered the injury while batting in the top of the sixth inning Monday night against the Dodgers, after tallying nine strikeouts over five frames. Cardinals manager Mike Shildt noted to reporters Tuesday that "it's not a minimal situation ... it's a real strain, tear" and that the 25-year-old ace is going to be out "a while." Flaherty had registered a sharp 2.90 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9 through 11 starts this season for St. Louis. Johan Oviedo will fill the vacant spot in the starting rotation.

[harmon]

The severity of this injury has escalated to where his owner must be feeling some real sweat and might go for Nola straight up.

Flaherty is still a great pickup for you for 2022.

[Judge Jude]

it's worth a try.
this owner hasn't won in literally 25 years, and he'd be losing one year of Flaherty at 15 - not like, three years of Tatis at 5, or something

[Judge Jude]

another possible destination for Nola:

I give Nola 32 and Segura 17 for Lux 5, a bum, and a June pick that will go in the 6 to 10 range (I likely have 1 and a 4 or a 5 already)?

Segura could be a keeper, but I'd have 2B Lux 5, SS Jazz 5 (and SS Gregorius 17 and 2B Solano 2) and here comes Lucky Luciano next year. #noroomattheinn

[Sharky]

Could you target an area of need (1B, SP) instead?

[Judge Jude]

that makes sense, though I don't see SP as an area of major need (even if Carrasco's goose is cooked).

corner and OF? yes, sir.

problem is that the team I dumped to now has a double-digit lead (though not due to that deal), and the next-up teams mostly have waffling owners.

[Sharky]

problem is that the team I dumped to now has a double-digit lead (though not due to that deal), and the next-up teams mostly have waffling owners.

A perennial problem. Our league pays 1st-4th places — and gives top minor league pick to 5th place. So there is some incentive to keep trying.

[Judge Jude]

as of 2 years ago, we do the same. but it's working not as an incentive to keep trying, so much as "well, if I just miss the money, then I get an awesome pick - that works, too! I'll just stand pat a while."

previously, we had a totally random lottery for the seven also-ran teams - so finishing 6th was as bad as finishing last, or worse in the sense that with another move or so, you could have cashed.

[Judge Jude]

ok, I think I got creative here.

I just traded another owner's July 15 pick I owned - that currently would be 4th - plus my April 2022 2nd-round pick (pegged at roughly 17th overall right now) to the league leader for another owner's pick that currently would be 2nd.

the leader has fewer picks/farmhands than he has ever had and loves loves making picks. so far, he only drops 2 slots to add a pick - meaning he can still get a top 10 overall player chosen by an NL team (or of course a hot-starting minor leaguer on the cusp of promotion or who is just raking).

I noted to him that making this deal does two things for him:
- it disincentivizes me to dump high-priced players to his rivals, because I now know that I will have the first 2 picks in the farm draft - so I no longer have to wait til July 15 to want to get better.
- instead, I want to put the vehicle into overdrive right away - I can't move out of the top 2 slots anytime soon, but 6th place in October lands me yet another first overall pick (while placing last resigns me to the 6th pick). why does he care? because what currently would be the 17th overall pick, he now owns. so if I move up 3 slots, so does my 2nd-round pick.

with our April farm drafts, the pickings tend to get very slim after 10-12 picks (sometimes, none of the top 70 or 80 in popular lists remain available). so he had a little reason not to dawdle on this.

current July 15 order would be:
- my pick, 23.5 points
- my newly-acquired pick, 32 points
- 42.5 points
- pick I just traded away, 55.5 points
- 56
- 61
- 67
- 72

I think I can move up 2-3 slots in the second half, after landing the top 2 picks next month to add to my farm stable of
Luciano, HRamos, Baty, Carroll, BMarquez, McLain (if picked by an NL team)

8-slot max and I have two more top picks coming in April - my own pick plus the pick of the next-worst owner. currently slotting at 5-6 come April.

[Judge Jude]

pretty dull season so far but

- have clinched the top 2 spots in our July 15 farm draft and UCLA SS Matt McLain remains mine if he is picked mid-first round by an NL team and not an AL one.

- have a pitching conundrum with the reactivation of SGray 16 and Graterol 2 by July 15 or else. with the focus on 2022, I like both - but who to cut from:
Nola 32, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, Gant 2, Kim 2, Soria 4, Bednar 10, Bender 10

am actively trying to deal Nola, ideally for a cost-effective hitter. the last 2 are "closer-in-waiting" fliers. Gant and Kim are cheap STL meh SPs. Soria is old but cheap. Price? AWood had a rough patch but maybe.

Carrasco 16 return on Aug 1 also in the works. Knebel may nibble at a spot at some point, too

am keeping Walker, for sure

[chancellor]

I’d cut Bednar first for sure.

[Judge Jude]

suddenly the offers are flying in (as they are in most leagues, no doubt):

- my Nola 32 for Liberatore or Brennen Davis (and a bum). as noted, I may want a bum P and something elsewhere. but if McLain is drafted by an NL team (likely first-rounder in 8 to 15 range), then I have the first 2 picks in the farm draft next week AND Luciano, HRamos, Baty, Carroll, and BMarquez. that's all 8 slots so where does another one go? plus will Liberatore pitch 50 MLB IP in second half and become a 5-S1? not looking for an MLB P added to the mix. if I make this deal and I can keep McLain, I'd have about a week to solve this (Marquez injury might mean it's him; just drafted him in April but can't fall in love).

- my borderline keepers Segura 17 and Pollock 17 for Hoerner 5 - easy keep - and a bum. up the middle I already have Chisholm 5, Solano 2, Gregorius 17, and Luciano on the way. but I can worry about that next spring and Solano isn't getting any younger so likely would jump on this.

- my Nola (again) and Segura (again) for Lux 5 and a bum. somebody here was a fan of Lux in May. still in love, or not so much?

- my Nola (again) and Segura (again) for Kyle Crick 1 and one of SS-3B-2B Luis Urias 5-S1 or OF-2B-SS Josh Rojas 8. same owner mentions injured 1B Brandon Belt at 7 (all players S2 except Urias).

[chancellor]

Jude - let me make sure I have your options right:

Option A - Nola, Segura, and Pollock for Libertore or BDavis, Hoerner - 5 and two bums. Or...

Option B - Nola and Segura for Lux -5 and a bum, keeping Pollock -17 or allowing a future dump deal.

Tough one. Lux isn't there yet, but I think he has the highest upside. OTOH, I really like Libertore if he stays in St. Louis (i.e, the Cards don't deal for Trevor Story...) and Hoerner has speed value and will likely play his way into regular PT due to his superior defense.

I'd personally take Option A, but to me, it's very close.

[Judge Jude]

A is just Nola for a bum and a prospect.
B yes
and now there's a C that's Nola-related

[chancellor]

I should have been clearer - my Option A combines your fist two deals together. Per Option C, you misspelled bum "Crick". I like Option C just a tick more than the others with Josh Rojas. He gives you positional flexibility and a legit power/speed combo that could improve and is already pretty decent. Urias isn't a bad get, but for the extra three bucks and a year, Rojas' extra speed is probably worth it.