Page 8 of 12 FirstFirst ... 678910 ... LastLast
Results 71 to 80 of 117

Thread: value calculators

  1. #71
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    9,953
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Zola View Post
    If I may...

    1. Feral - what you are doing is more suited to end of season earnings. As Ken pointed out, on draft day, you can only acquire the first 9 pitchers so by distributing the available budget over more than those rostered on draft day, you are diluting their bid price relative to the field. For example, Jacob deGrom may be priced at $45 using conventional valuation, but because the pool of stats at season's end is greater in daily leagues, his earnings may be $40 (or whatever). However, if you are only willing to pay $40 (or the respective final earnings for every pitcher), you will never roster anyone. In daily leagues, you are accepting a negative return on investment for a few top end players, expecting to make it up with prudent roster management elsewhere.

    2. There is nothing to suggest these tweaks are representative of how a player's earnings are truly affected. You're adjusting to a point they are aesthetically more pleasing, not necessarily reflective of their percentage of contributions to the stat pool.

    3. So long as your inputs include projected stats you know are not going to be part of the final stat pool, you are not projecting the draft-worthy earnings of the player.

    4. When purchasing a player, you are not acquiring that player, you are setting an expected earning for that roster spot. Say you pay $7 for James Paxton. You're expecting that roster spot to return $7 (hopefully more) with Paxton being the initial hurler to occupy the spot. The amount you pay isn't how much Paxton is worth, but how much you need to pay for Paxton relative to the room, with the expectation Paxton is the chief, but not sole occupant of that spot throughout the season.

    5. Strategically, if the plan is streaming starting pitching, it's optimal to decide how many and acquire your Week 1 streamers in the draft, based on their Week 1 matchups, since that's how you will manage the roster spot in season. There could be some consideration to targeting arms with a solid Week 1 matchup along with likelihood of not dropping and using again, but if the plan is frequent use of free agents/waivers, why not start Week 1?
    Regarding point 3 i already noted that would need to be addressed. What would be helpful for me is for you to explain how using calculator inputs from a daily league provides better valuation and information for someone to use in a draft.

  2. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    regarding point 2, one of the conclusions from the examples I ran was that the value of ace pitchers is reduced in daily leagues. Do you agree or disagree with that conclusion ?

    EDIT: My question has nothing to do with how people will bid, it has to do with how much value an ace pitcher will provide in a daily vs. a weekly league.
    Yes, I do. In fact, my personal approach in such leagues is not paying for the elite and instead focusing on the elite bats. My general plan is having a plethora of dominant middle relievers active all the time, then playing the matchup game. I'll usually start rostering starters in the SP3 range, be it snake draft or salary cap draft. I'll grab maybe three who I expect to be active just about every time they pitch. This replaces the normal array of SP1-SP3 I usually roster. I'll add a couple in the SP4 range -- those I plan on using most, but not all of the time. The rest are streamers. The exact split depends on league rules (innings/starts/games min and max), but I'll build up a solid ratio base with high-K reliever, then float in starters when appropriate.
    Follow me on Twitter @ToddZola

  3. #73
    All Star Ken's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Posts
    8,141
    Quote Originally Posted by Gregg View Post
    We have 12 teams and use 9 pitching slots. That means only 108 pitchers have auction value. But that does not mean the players who are rostered in reserve have no value.

    We have the reserve round draft where each player is free but each round has a dollar value. Does the first pick in draft have value...of course. If I pick Spencer Turnbull with the first res. pick I intend to use him. By me picking him first I would say I value him more than all the other Turnbulls. Yet he has no real auction value or maybe I could argue his auction value is $1.
    I agree with you Gregg. Part of the issue is semantics, we are talking about "value" in several different contexts.

  4. #74
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    9,953
    Quote Originally Posted by Gregg View Post
    First let me say thank you to all who are participating in this discussion. It is very interesting even if do not agree with some of the points. It is making me think.

    We have 12 teams and use 9 pitching slots. That means only 108 pitchers have auction value. But that does not mean the players who are rostered in reserve have no value.

    We have the reserve round draft where each player is free but each round has a dollar value. Does the first pick in draft have value...of course. If I pick Spencer Turnbull with the first res. pick I intend to use him. By me picking him first I would say I value him more than all the other Turnbulls. Yet he has no real auction value or maybe I could argue his auction value is $1.
    agreed. And I didn't address how some leagues allow people to bid on reserves and some don't. If your league does not allow bidding on reserve I think u would need to make some adjustments because I assumed reserves could be bid on. I could probably come up with a way to do this if u are interested

  5. #75
    All Star Ken's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Posts
    8,141
    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    agreed. And I didn't address how some leagues allow people to bid on reserves and some don't. If your league does not allow bidding on reserve I think u would need to make some adjustments because I assumed reserves could be bid on. I could probably come up with a way to do this if u are interested
    Wait, that changes a lot. The default setup is that reserves cannot be bid on. If you are bidding on reserves then yes your reserves should be counted. But that's true regardless of weekly or daily. It's an abnormal approach, but it does change the analysis.

  6. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    Regarding point 3 i already noted that would need to be addressed. What would be helpful for me is for you to explain how using calculator inputs from a daily league provides better valuation and information for someone to use in a draft.
    All I can do is explain how I do it - everyone is wired differently so it may not be useful.

    The conventional results give me an idea of the market is likely to price the players. Intuitively, I know which arms I prefer -- usually those in better pitcher's parks or on a team with a decent offense in a weak division (better chance of wins).

    I don't care how much these arms are worth -- I want to know which I am more likely to acquire for the lowest cost relative to the room.

    I think we're both doing the same thing -- I'm intuitively/subjectively tweaking expectation without the use of a calculator while you're adjusting the calculator to land on expectations passing the eye test.

    Neither is especially scientific - they're more empirical.

    It's a different strokes scenario. I'd rather make the subjective adjustments and spend more time doing deep dives on players my colleagues favor more than me as opposed to trial and error changing calculator inputs to land on something I feel is useful. Your mileage may vary, check local listings, etc.
    Follow me on Twitter @ToddZola

  7. #77
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    9,953
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Zola View Post
    All I can do is explain how I do it - everyone is wired differently so it may not be useful.

    The conventional results give me an idea of the market is likely to price the players. Intuitively, I know which arms I prefer -- usually those in better pitcher's parks or on a team with a decent offense in a weak division (better chance of wins).

    I don't care how much these arms are worth -- I want to know which I am more likely to acquire for the lowest cost relative to the room.

    I think we're both doing the same thing -- I'm intuitively/subjectively tweaking expectation without the use of a calculator while you're adjusting the calculator to land on expectations passing the eye test.

    Neither is especially scientific - they're more empirical.

    It's a different strokes scenario. I'd rather make the subjective adjustments and spend more time doing deep dives on players my colleagues favor more than me as opposed to trial and error changing calculator inputs to land on something I feel is useful. Your mileage may vary, check local listings, etc.
    I agree completely. And I think running thru a few different calculator inputs provide me some valuable info. Others may not think it is helpful. It feels like you and Ken are focused on using the data in a very strict manner during the auction, and I'm focused on establishing a better estimate of value and using it as a one piece of info in bidding/establishing a roster.

  8. #78
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    9,953
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Zola View Post
    Yes, I do. In fact, my personal approach in such leagues is not paying for the elite and instead focusing on the elite bats. My general plan is having a plethora of dominant middle relievers active all the time, then playing the matchup game. I'll usually start rostering starters in the SP3 range, be it snake draft or salary cap draft. I'll grab maybe three who I expect to be active just about every time they pitch. This replaces the normal array of SP1-SP3 I usually roster. I'll add a couple in the SP4 range -- those I plan on using most, but not all of the time. The rest are streamers. The exact split depends on league rules (innings/starts/games min and max), but I'll build up a solid ratio base with high-K reliever, then float in starters when appropriate.
    Here is your post 11 - "Re. #5 -- increasing the number of pitchers increases the number in the draft worthy pool. Distributing the same budget allocated to more pitchers obviously lowers the price for each." So I think we agree that daily leagues lowers the value of (some) pitchers, and I am trying to address it somewhat in a quantitative approach, while it appears you prefer a more qualitative approach. It appears that most or all people don't think there is value in my approach. I think it is useful to apply my quantitative methods to establish a baseline, and then use the qualitative inputs after that.

  9. #79
    Journeyman
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    3,120
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    I agree with you Gregg. Part of the issue is semantics, we are talking about "value" in several different contexts.
    Very Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance-esque

  10. #80
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    9,953
    Quote Originally Posted by Bene Futuis View Post
    Very Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance-esque
    "Kafka's Motorbike" is a classic and required reading imho. I hope no one gets that reference. I live in a household of women, so I have an excuse.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •