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Thread: value calculators

  1. #11
    Re. #5 -- increasing the number of pitchers increases the number in the draft worthy pool. Distributing the same budget allocated to more pitchers obviously lowers the price for each.
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  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Zola View Post
    One of the tenets of conventional valuation, which is one of the major flaws, is assuming the draft-worthy pool is active all season.

    The draft-worthy pool is composed of exactly enough players to legally fill everyone's roster. The lowest price is $1 and everyone is scaled up assuming a sum-zero economy, using up the entire available budget.

    For example, in a 12-team league with 14 hitters, 9 pitchers and a $260 budget, there are 168 batters and 108 pitchers priced at $1 or more with the sum of all 276 being $3120 (12 x 260).

    When the game was invented, the rules were you couldn't reserve a player unless he was hurt or sent to the minors. Even then, the above wasn't perfect, but it is closer than today's rules with free movement between active to reserve, FAAB/waivers, daily moves, etc.

    The answer is no -- I have not seen a calculator rigged for more frequent moves.

    The scientist in me has wheel's spinning as to how it can be adjusted, but the aging old fart in me says don't waste your time, knowing the room and playing the market is the more practical approach.
    Thanks, and I do appreciate your input. I guess my point was that just putting in 9 pitchers because that is how many slots are active does not provide the same accuracy for daily and weekly leagues due to the streaming. I'm probably the only one who cares.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Zola View Post
    Re. #5 -- increasing the number of pitchers increases the number in the draft worthy pool. Distributing the same budget allocated to more pitchers obviously lowers the price for each.
    agreed, so instead of putting in 9 pitcher slots like you would for a weekly league, perhaps one should put in more pitcher slots in the calculator if you are in a league with daily lineup changes ?

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Zola View Post

    The scientist in me has wheel's spinning as to how it can be adjusted, but the aging old fart in me says don't waste your time, knowing the room and playing the market is the more practical approach.
    this is what I was getting at partly. Not looking for something exact or to spend a lifetime running calculations, but surely there should be some reasonable approach to adjusting calculator inputs if you have a daily or weekly league ?

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    this is what I was getting at partly. Not looking for something exact or to spend a lifetime running calculations, but surely there should be some reasonable approach to adjusting calculator inputs if you have a daily or weekly league ?
    Some approach? Yes.

    Reasonable approach? No.

    Honestly, projection and valuation methodology are so flawed, it's better to spend the time learning the player pool, devising a strategy, finding the best players for that strategy and adjusting to the room/market.

    For example, James Paxton will not be in my lineup every week. Jokes about health aside, if Seattle uses a six-man rotation, that's 26 starts. Say 10 of 13 are favorable home affairs and maybe 6 of 13 road starts are nice (such as at LAA, at TEX - both good pitching parks and lesser lineups). So we're at 16 times I'd use Paxton. I'd need to adjust my projection for just those 16 starts - and do that for EVERY pitcher - and even then the whole "active for the entire season" thing skews the number.

    Or, I can see my flawed price is $12 in AL only, try to get him under that, but I'd rather pay full boat on Paxton if needed than someone in a less advantageous scenario at a similar rank.

    You're buying Paxton, but paying for a roster spot, of which Paxton will occupy maybe 16 times with someone else the other 10 weeks.

    One way to get fool valuation is project him for 26 starts, which assumes the guy in that spot the other 10 weeks is similar, but when you do that for everyone, replacement is goofy.

    This is why I say no to the reasonable part.
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  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Zola View Post
    Some approach? Yes.

    Reasonable approach? No.

    Honestly, projection and valuation methodology are so flawed, it's better to spend the time learning the player pool, devising a strategy, finding the best players for that strategy and adjusting to the room/market.

    For example, James Paxton will not be in my lineup every week. Jokes about health aside, if Seattle uses a six-man rotation, that's 26 starts. Say 10 of 13 are favorable home affairs and maybe 6 of 13 road starts are nice (such as at LAA, at TEX - both good pitching parks and lesser lineups). So we're at 16 times I'd use Paxton. I'd need to adjust my projection for just those 16 starts - and do that for EVERY pitcher - and even then the whole "active for the entire season" thing skews the number.

    Or, I can see my flawed price is $12 in AL only, try to get him under that, but I'd rather pay full boat on Paxton if needed than someone in a less advantageous scenario at a similar rank.

    You're buying Paxton, but paying for a roster spot, of which Paxton will occupy maybe 16 times with someone else the other 10 weeks.

    One way to get fool valuation is project him for 26 starts, which assumes the guy in that spot the other 10 weeks is similar, but when you do that for everyone, replacement is goofy.

    This is why I say no to the reasonable part.
    I disagree.....ha ha.


    to an extent. The tool is what it is. But if there are simple changes that make it more useful and practical for the league a person is in I think that is worth talking about and putting into the calculator.

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    I disagree.....ha ha.


    to an extent. The tool is what it is. But if there are simple changes that make it more useful and practical for the league a person is in I think that is worth talking about and putting into the calculator.
    It's fine to disagree but how?

    As someone who builds these type tools it's important to start with the algorithm. What algorithm are you proposing to use in order to price pitchers better in a 2x or daily lineup? And don't say you're just going to leave it for someone else, because that's the point - one of the reasons it doesn't exist is because it's a non-trivial question you are asking. Unless you have a better method in mind, asking why there isn't one doesn't get us anywhere.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    It's fine to disagree but how?

    As someone who builds these type tools it's important to start with the algorithm. What algorithm are you proposing to use in order to price pitchers better in a 2x or daily lineup? And don't say you're just going to leave it for someone else, because that's the point - one of the reasons it doesn't exist is because it's a non-trivial question you are asking. Unless you have a better method in mind, asking why there isn't one doesn't get us anywhere.
    you have to be kidding me. I ask a question about a topic for discussion and you tell me it is my responsibility to provide all the answers? I could tell you what I think, but the whole point of my post was to get other peoples input because I don't claim to be an expert.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    you have to be kidding me. I ask a question about a topic for discussion and you tell me it is my responsibility to provide all the answers? I could tell you what I think, but the whole point of my post was to get other peoples input because I don't claim to be an expert.
    You don't have to be an expert to suggest a methodology? It doesn't have to be detailed, but if you are suggesting something should exist it's reasonable to ask why you think that's the case.

    I *think* the answer was given several times in this thread that it doesn't exist. You pushed back above "surely there should be some reasonable approach to adjusting calculator inputs if you have a daily or weekly league"


    What was the impetus behind "surely" - what is it that makes you sure?

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    You don't have to be an expert to suggest a methodology? It doesn't have to be detailed, but if you are suggesting something should exist it's reasonable to ask why you think that's the case.

    I *think* the answer was given several times in this thread that it doesn't exist. You pushed back above "surely there should be some reasonable approach to adjusting calculator inputs if you have a daily or weekly league"


    What was the impetus behind "surely" - what is it that makes you sure?
    well if it doesn't exist, I'm not sure why anyone would look to the Feral Slasher to invent it. but my thoughts would be that for weekly leagues inputting 9 pitcher slots in the standard fangraphs calculator is appropriate. if you have daily leagues you might want to consider upping that number to reflect the reality of your league. Honestly people shouldn't be looking at me for answers when I'm the one asking questions.

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