value calculators

[Todd Zola]

Regarding point 3 i already noted that would need to be addressed. What would be helpful for me is for you to explain how using calculator inputs from a daily league provides better valuation and information for someone to use in a draft.

All I can do is explain how I do it - everyone is wired differently so it may not be useful.

The conventional results give me an idea of the market is likely to price the players. Intuitively, I know which arms I prefer -- usually those in better pitcher's parks or on a team with a decent offense in a weak division (better chance of wins).

I don't care how much these arms are worth -- I want to know which I am more likely to acquire for the lowest cost relative to the room.

I think we're both doing the same thing -- I'm intuitively/subjectively tweaking expectation without the use of a calculator while you're adjusting the calculator to land on expectations passing the eye test.

Neither is especially scientific - they're more empirical.

It's a different strokes scenario. I'd rather make the subjective adjustments and spend more time doing deep dives on players my colleagues favor more than me as opposed to trial and error changing calculator inputs to land on something I feel is useful. Your mileage may vary, check local listings, etc.

[The Feral Slasher]

All I can do is explain how I do it - everyone is wired differently so it may not be useful.

The conventional results give me an idea of the market is likely to price the players. Intuitively, I know which arms I prefer -- usually those in better pitcher's parks or on a team with a decent offense in a weak division (better chance of wins).

I don't care how much these arms are worth -- I want to know which I am more likely to acquire for the lowest cost relative to the room.

I think we're both doing the same thing -- I'm intuitively/subjectively tweaking expectation without the use of a calculator while you're adjusting the calculator to land on expectations passing the eye test.

Neither is especially scientific - they're more empirical.

It's a different strokes scenario. I'd rather make the subjective adjustments and spend more time doing deep dives on players my colleagues favor more than me as opposed to trial and error changing calculator inputs to land on something I feel is useful. Your mileage may vary, check local listings, etc.

I agree completely. And I think running thru a few different calculator inputs provide me some valuable info. Others may not think it is helpful. It feels like you and Ken are focused on using the data in a very strict manner during the auction, and I'm focused on establishing a better estimate of value and using it as a one piece of info in bidding/establishing a roster.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yes, I do. In fact, my personal approach in such leagues is not paying for the elite and instead focusing on the elite bats. My general plan is having a plethora of dominant middle relievers active all the time, then playing the matchup game. I'll usually start rostering starters in the SP3 range, be it snake draft or salary cap draft. I'll grab maybe three who I expect to be active just about every time they pitch. This replaces the normal array of SP1-SP3 I usually roster. I'll add a couple in the SP4 range -- those I plan on using most, but not all of the time. The rest are streamers. The exact split depends on league rules (innings/starts/games min and max), but I'll build up a solid ratio base with high-K reliever, then float in starters when appropriate.

Here is your post 11 - "Re. #5 -- increasing the number of pitchers increases the number in the draft worthy pool. Distributing the same budget allocated to more pitchers obviously lowers the price for each." So I think we agree that daily leagues lowers the value of (some) pitchers, and I am trying to address it somewhat in a quantitative approach, while it appears you prefer a more qualitative approach. It appears that most or all people don't think there is value in my approach. I think it is useful to apply my quantitative methods to establish a baseline, and then use the qualitative inputs after that.

[Bene Futuis]

I agree with you Gregg. Part of the issue is semantics, we are talking about "value" in several different contexts.

Very Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance-esque

[The Feral Slasher]

Very Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance-esque

"Kafka's Motorbike" is a classic and required reading imho. I hope no one gets that reference. I live in a household of women, so I have an excuse.

[chancellor]

regarding point 2, one of the conclusions from the examples I ran was that the value of ace pitchers is reduced in daily leagues. Do you agree or disagree with that conclusion ?

I know I do, but I wish I'd kept better data to support the view. I was in a 12-team mixed, 5x5, ESPN league, and was intrigued by Sporer's concept of 2 MRs = 1 Ace. The catch with ESPN leagues at that time is they were starts limited to 180 total starts/year. So in either 2013 or 2014, I drafted one really good SP (Greinke), one mediocre SP (Lynn), reserved one slot for streaming starting pitching, and two slots for streaming MRs, and four closers. Idea was I'd use Greinke for all his starts, Lynn on perceived favorable starts, 4-5 best streaming SP starts/week, and use good MRs who had good matchups and/or weren't going to be sitting down for a couple days.

[The Feral Slasher]

I know I do, but I wish I'd kept better data to support the view. I was in a 12-team mixed, 5x5, ESPN league, and was intrigued by Sporer's concept of 2 MRs = 1 Ace. The catch with ESPN leagues at that time is they were starts limited to 180 total starts/year. So in either 2013 or 2014, I drafted one really good SP (Greinke), one mediocre SP (Lynn), reserved one slot for streaming starting pitching, and two slots for streaming MRs, and four closers. Idea was I'd use Greinke for all his starts, Lynn on perceived favorable starts, 4-5 best streaming SP starts/week, and use good MRs who had good matchups and/or weren't going to be sitting down for a couple days.

one thing that would be helpful if one wanted to play with calculator inputs is to have data from their league so they could match up inputs that result in outputs that somewhat accurately represent their league. I just threw some spaghetti at the wall to see what would happen.

[Ken]

I just threw some spaghetti at the wall to see what would happen.

at least you admit it

[The Feral Slasher]

at least you admit it

Clearly a lot you won't admit to, lol

[Ken]

Clearly a lot you won't admit to, lol

When did I throw spaghetti? My argument was entirely analytical, not guessing.

[The Feral Slasher]

Clearly a lot you won't admit to, lol

What I am trying to do is establish a more realistic baseline for values and you dismiss everything I present as not perfect, while ignoring the larger imperfections in the alternative.

[The Feral Slasher]

What I am trying to do is establish a more realistic baseline for values and you dismiss everything I present as not perfect, while ignoring the larger imperfections in the alternative.

Let's take an alternate view and explain what is wrong with the alternative to what I am proposing. I don't think it would be better

[The Feral Slasher]

Let's take an alternate view and explain what is wrong with the alternative to what I am proposing. I don't think it would be better

Because the entire focus has been how what I am proposing is wrong. Explain to me how the alterntive is better

[Ken]

What I am trying to do is establish a more realistic baseline for values and you dismiss everything I present as not perfect, while ignoring the larger imperfections in the alternative.

That's a very jaded and pessimistic view of what transpired. I didn't blindly dismiss anything, I disagreed.

I'm an analytical person. If you tell me that "all my friends say that 10 + 10 is 50, but I know they are wrong, 10 + 10 is 37". I'm not going to nod my head and say "you're right, your answer is closer to correct so I'll just shut up and sit in the corner", I'm going to ask "wait, how can it be 37, the last digit is 0+0, how are you possibly getting to a 7?"

If you want people to just nod and smile, why ask a question?

You are complaining that I engaged and discussed the "why" part. Okay... if you say so.

[The Feral Slasher]

Because the entire focus has been how what I am proposing is wrong. Explain to me how the alterntive is better

It's easy for you to nitpick at what I presented....now do the same for the other option