15-team mixed keepers

[joncarlos]

My PONY team has a very interesting set of keeper choices this year.

15-team mixed, standard 5x5 roto, and we can keep up to 12. Players who are o21 are due extensions (or not) at $5/season. So a $1 o21 could be a $6 g22 ($6 for each of 2021 and 2022). I do expect some pretty high inflatioin but it's always an interesting auction. And we're doing it online this year instead of in person, and I don't know how those dynamics will play out, but it does make me very leery of going in with $200+ to spend.

C Austin Nola $5 o22 (supposed to miss just a couple weeks now, but how quickly is he at full strength?)
1B Luke Voit $13 o22
3B Kyle Seager $4 o22
3B Anthony Rendon $47 o22

SS Jorge Polanco $4 o21 (probably won't extend)
2B/OF Jurickson Profar $1 o22
2B Luis Arraez $2 o22

OF Clint Frazier $1 o22
OF Mookie Betts $55 o22

SP Sean Manaea $1 o21 (probably won't extend?)
SP Frankie Montas $5 o21 (may extend?)
SP Luis Severino $1 o22 (could probably buy back for 6-10, but I really do like him and we have enough reserves and DL slots that it won't really hurt)
SP Framber Valdez $5 o22 (probably won't be a keeper)

RP Ryan Pressly $2 o22
P Dustin May $1 o21 (would have to extend to get any real value out of him)
RP Aroldis Chapman $25 o22

[chancellor]

The for sure keeps:

- Voit $13
- Betts $55
- Frazier $1
- Severino $1
- Pressly $2

The decisions:

- Rendon $47 and KSeager $4: I like both, but if you keep both, your CI slots are full. I wouldn't think Rendon's price will drop after last year, but maybe there's some good lower cost options that will be out there for you. But I'd keep both.
- Manaea $1 and Montas $5: Personally, I keep Manaea and toss in Montas. Yeah, COVID and all last year, but anyone who goes from studly to poor and was busted for PEDs....
- Dustin May $1 - Yeah, I extend him the year and keep him through '22 at $6. I like him a lot better than Montas at a buck more (or $4 less if you'd extend Montas)
- Framber $5 - GITH can tell you how much I like him, but in your situation, I agree he has to be tossed in.
- Polanco $4 and Profar $1 - Agree on no extension for Polanco, but I keep both for $5. Lots of positional flexibility.
- Arraez - Nope, he goes back in.
- Chapman $25 - He's likely worth it, but I'd put him back in and see if I can buy other closers at good value to pair up with Pressly. Or if you really like Aroldis this year, I'd expect you can get him back at something very close to $25.
- Austin Nola $5 - One catcher league, correct? I still like him a lot at that price, though.

So, my four returns to the pool would be Arraez, Montas, Valdez, and Chapman.

[joncarlos]

Awesome - I appreciate the feedback. It's a 2-catcher league. Tout is OBP but I don't think it matters that much for catchers, and Nola only went for $3 last weekend in that auction. I thought he'd go more, but I think we pay more for catchers than the experts do.

I think I agree about Arraez and Framber and Chapman. I like Arraez but I also have Polanco, and unless I really want to bet against Josh Donaldson, I can't justify both.

I really like Montas and I think I'll keep him... just a question of extending him.

If I keep Sevvy, Montas, May, Pressly, Manaea, that gives me 4 pitching spots to really spend and get a closer.

Glad to see that you think Mookie is a no-brainer. I realize he's expensive but I'm not spending much elsewhere.

I agree about Seager and Rendon. I think Rendon goes for about the same price this year. The question is whether locking up CI with him is worth it.

One other interesting wrinkle around Rendon is that I know Trout will be back in the auction (I know this because I have him at 62 and I'm not keeping him)... not that I think I'd get him, but at least I'd have the flexibility.

If I go in with the 5 pitchers plus Polanco, Voit, Mookie, Nola, Frazier, Seager, Profar .. that's not a ton of speed. When I look at that group of 7, it does push me to want to replace Seager with Rendon or even Aroldis just to minimize the risk of inflation. But really, Nola isn't a high profit guy either, so he could also just fade away for either Seager or Aroldis/Rendon.

[Hornsby]

FWIW...I had Trout for 66 in Keith's AL only, and dropped him. He want for 62 at the auction. No real reason why that I can figure out.

Polanco at 4 is a pretty good deal, I might consider extending him. He's likely to get multi positional qualification and he should be healthy after having off season surgery.

[revo]

I'd go with....

These for sure:
C Austin Nola $5 o22
1B Luke Voit $13 o22
3B Kyle Seager $4 o22
SS Jorge Polanco $4 o21 - don't extend
OF Clint Frazier $1 o22
OF Mookie Betts $55 o22
SP Sean Manaea $1 o21 - don't extend
SP Frankie Montas $5 o21 - don't extend
P Dustin May $1 o21 - extend
RP Ryan Pressly $2 o22
SP Luis Severino $1 o22


That leaves one from.....
3B Anthony Rendon $47 o22 - would be better if it's OBP, so I'd probably toss him back and use the $ on a bigger fish. If not, you can probably buy him back for the same or less.
2B/OF Jurickson Profar $1 o22- probably only worth $1-$2 more
2B Luis Arraez $2 o22 - with BA, his value is higher. Maybe he's the guy.
SP Framber Valdez $5 o22 - depends on his injury, but this could be a lost year
RP Aroldis Chapman $25 o22 - how much do closers go for? This seems like higher end. What closers do you expect to be available?