2K21 Dynasty League Keepers

[Teenwolf]

You may have misunderstood. I was referencing his projections, not my own analysis. Steamer, zips, atc, etc.

As far as how/why, catchers tend to develop later at the plate. In 2020 he was a different hitter so quoting his career stats doesn’t really move the needle.



Understood I was providing the objective reasons why he is a $8-$10 catcher and goes many rounds before LeClerc in drafts where he is a catcher. Subjectively you can certainly prefer others!

Claiming that 200ish PA in 2020 makes him "a different hitter" than his prior track record is an interesting take. I understand the most recent stats are always the most valuable in determining future performance, but we have 8 years of data to look at here. You can't toss all that out. Besides, 2020 produced his career best 91 OPS+.

In 8 years, his highest SLG is .390 as a 22 year old in AA.

Over 489 career minor league games, he has 53 SB, 26 CS, with his only positive value baserunning coming in A ball as an 18 year old, going 12/15. 65% or so ain't gonna cut it for a base stealer, and he hasn't improved in the bigs, so the red light is coming, or at least it should be.

The HR power is starting to come a bit more for him, as he only hit 7 HR in those 489 minor league games, and now 8 HR in bigs over ~850 PA. So what's the upside with the new dead ball in 500 PA? 8 HR? It's going to create a HR deficit in any format.

I just don't think a hitter nearly guaranteed to hit under 10 HR is worth putting into a mixed league lineup solely for his SB upside, especially when that SB upside is very suspect on its own. Especially given all the other context of lineup, ballpark, PT uncertainty, dragging down the counting stats.

He's 26, so he could be in for a career year. I just don't get the hype.

[BuckyBuckner]

Nice, I love Varsho at $4 for this format. A bit of a playing time risk if his bat struggles, but I would take that risk.

Varsho is a lot like IKF, except he has a lot more thump in the profile, better SB track record for both volume and success rate, similar plate discipline, more upside, more cache around the name. I love Varsho's specific situation because he's set to catch 30-50 games as a backup while also likely to see 100+ games in CF (and presumably other OF spots if he can handle CF). If he hits well, he could become a nice keeper.

I own Varsho in 2 of 4 possible leagues so perhaps my personal interest is slightly influencing my opinion here, but I've loved Varsho for years.

Thanks. I have been a Varsho fan for several years. I have him in my NL only league as well. I've had several people try to trade for him. I actually drafted him in this league and traded him when I went for it. I did not expect my trade offer to work so I was very happy to get him.

For me the huge difference between Varsho and IKF in this league is that Varsho still has rookie status (though not in real baseball) and I can keep him in the reserve auction. I guess the catcher eligibility is pretty huge too.

[Ken]

Claiming that 200ish PA in 2020 makes him "a different hitter" than his prior track record is an interesting take.

Sadly, the Rangers are my local team. I watched him quite a bit last year. If you think IKF's ABs in 2020 looked anything like 2019 then I feel like you weren't watching the same guy I was. His avg was up 62 points last year despite a rise of only 9 points of babip. He struck out less with the same number of walks. His approach just looked different entirely. Which is not a huge surprise. Young catchers are often overmatched at the plate.

You don't have to take my word for it though, look at the objective projection numbers, they look decent.

I understand that people have a hard time evaluating catchers because a) the baseline is much lower and b) the development arc is different. I suspect if you looked at it differently you might realize your miss on IKF. He's not a "great" player by any means (not anywhere close), but he has fantasy value if he's catcher eligible.

I understand the most recent stats are always the most valuable in determining future performance, but we have 8 years of data to look at here. You can't toss all that out. Besides, 2020 produced his career best 91 OPS+.

In 8 years, his highest SLG is .390 as a 22 year old in AA.

OPS+ isn't a stat in my league, it's not relevant at all really.

And granted, if you are looking for slugging, you are looking in the wrong place. It's like commenting that Salvador Perez doesn't have speed. While true, it's not the reason you draft him, so who cares?

Over 489 career minor league games, he has 53 SB, 26 CS, with his only positive value baserunning coming in A ball as an 18 year old, going 12/15. 65% or so ain't gonna cut it for a base stealer, and he hasn't improved in the bigs, so the red light is coming, or at least it should be.

The red light is not coming. The Rangers are in rebuild mode, not competing for the playoffs. There will be lots of green lights.
Elvis Andrus led the AL twice in CS in a 4 year span and never got red lights despite being low %. 65% in 2014. 71% in 2017. The Rangers aren't fully bought into modern analytics like a lot of teams (sadly) - they still have a mix of scouting and stats. They still steal more than they should. Good for fantasy, bad for their team.

The HR power is starting to come a bit more for him, as he only hit 7 HR in those 489 minor league games, and now 8 HR in bigs over ~850 PA. So what's the upside with the new dead ball in 500 PA? 8 HR? It's going to create a HR deficit in any format.
I just don't think a hitter nearly guaranteed to hit under 10 HR is worth putting into a mixed league lineup solely for his SB upside, especially when that SB upside is very suspect on its own. Especially given all the other context of lineup, ballpark, PT uncertainty, dragging down the counting stats.

Objectively though it's not really a deficit. Who is your 30th catcher? In nfbc we're looking at Elias Diaz, Kurt Suzuki, and Sam Huff. (Varsho is a top 10 catcher by ADP who goes at pick ~165, your comparison to him wasn't really relevant)

Diaz hit .241 with 2 HR, 28 RBI and 31 R in his last full year.
Suzuki looks decent (and he's a target of mine), but he's a backup catcher not getting full time ABs. Steamer projects 253 AB, 9 HR, 29 R, 32 SB, and 1 steal
Sam Huff is going to spend a lot of time in the minors (especially with Heim now in place). He doesnt even have a Steamer projection. ATC gives him 91 AB.

As far as your 500 PA... why? He'll get at least 600. He was on pace for 616 and he didn't even have a starting role at the beginning of the year. Now he's their starting SS with no Elvis behind him, and he has a gold glove. He's an every day starter, and just the PA alone (which provides more R/RBI) gives him more value than the backup catchers you get at replacement level.

Even the pessimistic numbers you quoted for IKF have significant value compared to replacement level catchers. It's not a deficit at all. Let's be objective about this.

He's 26, so he could be in for a career year. I just don't get the hype.

Wouldn't at all be a surprise, very typical for catchers, late bloomers more often than not. And all he has to do is continue somewhere close to his 2020 rates, not asking for more.

[BuckyBuckner]

For those that care, we had our draft Saturday and here's the team I ended up with:

C - Travis D'Arnaud $6*
C - Willson Contreras $8
1B - Luke Voit $10*
CR - C.J. Cron $6*
3B - Alec Bohm $6*
2B - Ryan McMahon $5
MI - Didi Gregorius $11*
SS - Tim Anderson $22*
OF - Kole Calhoun $6*
OF - Christian Yelich $44
OF - George Springer $33
OF - Harrison Bader $2
OF - Aaron Hicks $1
UT - Ha-seong Kim $2

P - Yu Darvish $24*
P - Brandon Woodruff $27*
P - Zac Gallen $17*
P - Zach Plesac $11*
P - Charlie Morton $9
P - Frankie Montas $6
P - Josh Lindblom $1
P - Michael Kopech $1
P - Joakim Soria $1
P - Jordan Hicks $2
P - Trevor Rosenthal $6*

BN - Daulton Varsho $4*
BN - Nate Lowe $11
BN - Pavin Smith $1
BN - Freddy Galvis $1
BN - Orlando Arcia $1
BN - Nico Hoerner $1
BN - Corey Dickerson $2
BN - Yoshitomo Tsutsugo $9
BN - Edwin Rios $2
BN - Grayson Rodriguez $1
BN - Nate Pearson $5*
BN - Matt Manning $4*
BN - Sean Doolittle $1
BN - Andres Munoz $1
BN - Alex Wood $1

I did not anticipate getting Wilson Contreras for $8 (had him valued at $22). That threw me off a little and wasn't able to get a better outfielder than Bader and Hicks. But they are solid. I have options to replace Calhoun with Varsho, Dickerson or Tsutsugo. I wish I drafted a little more pitching but I can fix that through FAAB. At least one of Galvis, Arcia or Hoerner might be on the chopping block. I don't think I need that many middle infielders. I could also look at trading a corner guy to a team that might be weak there.

I wanted to spend $75 on two of the big names available (Trout $52, Yelich, Harper $43, Bellinger $42 and Springer). I think I did well by spending $77. Though Trout at $52 is actually a solid buy, he was the first player called out. I felt with my strong pitching I could spend little there and was surprised to get Morton, he was valued at about $15 in my software.

Overall I'm happy with the team, I'm weak on speed and probably saves but I think that's fixable if needed. What do you folks think?

[Teenwolf]

I love your top 3 SP: Darvish, Woodruff, Gallen, and I like the supporting cast. Morton $9 and Montas $6 were nice buy-low opportunities who should rebound. Kopech, Manning, Pearson all provide upside. Your RP flyers are fine, but might require a trade or some extra FAAB to stay competitive in saves.

Offense has a lot riding on Yelich. If he returns to MVP levels, then you're looking great, but if he fails, that's a huge anchor that will weigh down your ability to compete. Not sure what your salary cap is, but I would have preferred to spread the risk a bit more. You're also very light on SB. Hopefully Varsho has a good year and nabs 15 SB with C/OF eligibility. But you'll need some trades or FAAB buys to compete in SB.

[Ken]

Had a lot of bad ideas this offseason (cough, Marquez, Jeffers, the list goes on) but man is IKF making me look good. Wish he would have been kept here, he's been worth more than the other discussed players combined (LeClerc, Houck, Varsho, Renfroe, Pearson, Manning)

(Yes, I know the season is not over, but he's already showing he's the guy I thought he was).

[BuckyBuckner]

Had a lot of bad ideas this offseason (cough, Marquez, Jeffers, the list goes on) but man is IKF making me look good. Wish he would have been kept here, he's been worth more than the other discussed players combined (LeClerc, Houck, Varsho, Renfroe, Pearson, Manning)

(Yes, I know the season is not over, but he's already showing he's the guy I thought he was).

You're right. He's been very good. I ended up tossing him back and he went for $1. So technically I was right not to keep him for $6 but I should have grabbed him in the auction.

[BuckyBuckner]

I thought I'd bump this thread to post my HDID instead of starting a new thread to add some context/background. We decided that we wanted the league to be more of a dynasty league. We expanded rosters to 50 players and salaries for players without rookie eligibility go up by 3 and rookies salaries stay the same. It's a 15 team mixed auction league with 5x5 categories: OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB x ERA, WHIP, W, SV, K. We draft 50 players in an auction and then draft. 30 players are auctions with a budget of $280. 25 man active roster, 15 hitters and 10 pitchers and 5 bench. Then a 20 player draft with descending salaries. We kept 15 major leaguers and 5 minor leaguers this year and next year we can keep 25 players, no restrictions on major vs minor league players. Here's the team I ended up with. Bolded players were keepers.

Auction:
C DVarsho $7
C WContreras $11
1B RTellez $5
CR JDonaldson $9
3B ARendon $10
2B BLowe $13
MI RMcMahon $8
SS JChisholm $8
OF JGallo $20
OF CYelich $25
OF CBellinger $22
OF ERosario $16
OF MYastrzemski $9
UT LThomas $4
UT BStott $1
P BWoodruff $30
P SManaea $12
P CRodon $4
P HRyu $5
P MKopech $4
P TMckenzie $6
P ANola $23
P RWick $4
P KFinnegan $5
P JMcGee $5

BN TGlasnow $8
BN MPineda $2
BN GKirby $2
BN Eury Perez $1
BN TSoderstrom $1

Draft:
YDiaz $10
AHouser $9
MGivens $8
AMartin $7
MDuffy $6
MHarris $5
DLHall $5
AHedges $5
GHenderson $5
NJones $4
TCasas $3
NLodolo $3
JGroshans $3
TFreeman $2
MBusch $1
RPepiot $1
TEstrada $1
JMerryweather $1
Greg Jones $1
DCameron $1

What do you guys think? (If only I can get the 2019 version of that outfield.

[BuckyBuckner]

Anyone have any thoughts on my team?

[harmon]

Your keepers were fine, but have to say I don't like many of your auction buys.

A big chunk of your money went to Gallo, Yelich and Bellinger and Nola. None of these guys are what they used to be and the hitters will leave you in bad shape in average.

The whole team has a pre-pandemic feeling to it. You're going to need a lot of bouncebacks to be competitive I'm afraid.

[BuckyBuckner]

Your keepers were fine, but have to say I don't like many of your auction buys.

A big chunk of your money went to Gallo, Yelich and Bellinger and Nola. None of these guys are what they used to be and the hitters will leave you in bad shape in average.

The whole team has a pre-pandemic feeling to it. You're going to need a lot of bouncebacks to be competitive I'm afraid.

We don't have AVG as a category, it's OPS instead. That's why I'm not too worried about Gallo. But yes, I am hoping on a bounce back from a few guys. Soto and Trout went for over $50, Springer almost $50, and I just didn't want to pay that price.

[Sharky]

I have to agree. Like the keepers a lot. Don’t love the auction buys with a few exceptions: Pineda, MHarris, BStott notably. But you have a viable contender and should be able to make a run and enjoy. Good luck!!

[Pauly]

We don't have AVG as a category, it's OPS instead. That's why I'm not too worried about Gallo. But yes, I am hoping on a bounce back from a few guys. Soto and Trout went for over $50, Springer almost $50, and I just didn't want to pay that price.

Soto in OBP is worth every penny.