2K21 Dynasty League Keepers

[BuckyBuckner]

I have an offer of my TAnderson $22 for May $6 and SHoward $4. Howard can be kept in the reserve part of the auction. What do you guys think? Bauer signing might mean May doesn't have a spot in the rotation. Still trying to get cheaper and make sure I have plenty of pitching. Just not convinced about this one.

[Hornsby]

LA staff is going to be strange...May could be long relief or 4th starter. I think it all depends on what happens in ST. If he's learned how to get swing and misses with his great stuff, he's a #3 starter, if he's still learning, they'll spot him in. I don't think that Howard helps you much this year...

[Bene Futuis]

Dodgers' rotation was never going to generate huge IP numbers for anyone and both of Urias and May were looking at mixed roles even before the Bauer trade. I still think it's Urias who ends up getting shorted the most in this rotation, although perhaps not right off the bat.
Howard is an enigma - still love the stuff but concerning comments recently about his conditioning and plus he has injury concerns. Great wild card prospect to trade for but I don't know that this trade is a great one for you right now. Depends on how much you believe in Tim Anderson, I suppose. He's certainly looking at some BABIP regression but has nice 5 category skills.

[BuckyBuckner]

Thanks guys. I'm leaning towards passing. I made the offer before the Bauer signing. He countered with other offers and I decided to hang on to Anderson and he came back to say he'd do my original offer if I still wanted to. I'm not thinking having the shortstop is more important.

[BuckyBuckner]

Our keepers are due Friday, I made a bunch of trades, and here is what I'm looking at keeping

d'Arnaud $6
Voit $10
Cron $6
Bohm $6
Gregorious $11
Anderson $22
Calhoun $6
Darvish $24
Woodruff $27
Gallen $17
Plesac $11
Rosenthal $6
Leclerc $6
____
Pearson $5
Manning $5

Other options are:

Kiner-Falefa $6
Renfroe $7
Houck $5

I still have Morton and Greinke but no one has asked about them and I've made them available.

I think my worst keeper is Lecler and I'm looking to trade him and the extras for a better final keeper.

[Ken]

Our keepers are due Friday, I made a bunch of trades, and here is what I'm looking at keeping

d'Arnaud $6
Voit $10
Cron $6
Bohm $6
Gregorious $11
Anderson $22
Calhoun $6
Darvish $24
Woodruff $27
Gallen $17
Plesac $11
Rosenthal $6
Leclerc $6
____
Pearson $5
Manning $5

Other options are:

Kiner-Falefa $6
Renfroe $7
Houck $5

I still have Morton and Greinke but no one has asked about them and I've made them available.

I think my worst keeper is Lecler and I'm looking to trade him and the extras for a better final keeper.

Depending on eligibility and league size/# of catchers, IKF may be a better keeper than LeClerc.

[Teenwolf]

Depending on eligibility and league size/# of catchers, IKF may be a better keeper than LeClerc.

IKF played 46 games at 3B, 16 games at SS in 2020. No more catcher eligibility.

I don't think IKF is a good mixed league keeper, personally. I'd stick with Leclerc, who will get the 1st shot to close (and some rope) due to his lengthy contract.

[Ken]

IKF played 46 games at 3B, 16 games at SS in 2020. No more catcher eligibility.

I don't think IKF is a good mixed league keeper, personally. I'd stick with Leclerc, who will get the 1st shot to close (and some rope) due to his lengthy contract.

Yeah I know what he played, some formats still have him at catcher - there's a whole thread on that.

[Teenwolf]

Yeah I know what he played, some formats still have him at catcher - there's a whole thread on that.

I didn't realize any formats were doing that. Silly, but okay.

In a mixed league, even with 2 catchers where he would qualify as one, IKF holds little appeal.

Career line of . 260/.319/.351 shows nothing to get excited about. Decent contact rates will float him a decent BA, but I would project .260/45/8/45/8... hitting low in a bad lineup, pitchers park, counting stats will suffer, like last year's 10 RBI in 200+ PA... in 234 games played, he's got 18 SB and 10 CS... that's negative value. Last year 8/13 also not good enough to justify continued green lights. Hence my projection of 8 for a full season. He also has Tejeda ready to supplant him into a super sub. Red flags everywhere. Maybe slap hitters do better with the new deadball, but I don't think that's a reason to target slap hitters. Not in mixed leagues at least, a 5 HR full season can really hurt.

[Ken]

I didn't realize any formats were doing that. Silly, but okay.

In a mixed league, even with 2 catchers where he would qualify as one, IKF holds little appeal.

Career line of . 260/.319/.351 shows nothing to get excited about. Decent contact rates will float him a decent BA, but I would project .260/45/8/45/8... hitting low in a bad lineup, pitchers park, counting stats will suffer, like last year's 10 RBI in 200+ PA... in 234 games played, he's got 18 SB and 10 CS... that's negative value. Last year 8/13 also not good enough to justify continued green lights. Hence my projection of 8 for a full season. He also has Tejeda ready to supplant him into a super sub. Red flags everywhere. Maybe slap hitters do better with the new deadball, but I don't think that's a reason to target slap hitters. Not in mixed leagues at least, a 5 HR full season can really hurt.

You overestimate the replacement level catcher in a 2C league. The stat line you referenced is quite a bit above replacement. His projections are around 8-10 HR, 12-15 SB, .260, 60/50. He's not great by any means but compared to Caratini, Zunino, Trevino, Narvaez, your replacement guys, those SBs are nice. It's worth $8-$10 in a 15 team mixed with 2 catchers.

[Teenwolf]

You overestimate the replacement level catcher in a 2C league. The stat line you referenced is quite a bit above replacement. His projections are around 8-10 HR, 12-15 SB, .260, 60/50. He's not great by any means but compared to Caratini, Zunino, Trevino, Narvaez, your replacement guys, those SBs are nice. It's worth $8-$10 in a 15 team mixed with 2 catchers.

Let's examine the HR. How do you project 8-10, when he has 8 career HR in 846 PA over 2.5 seasons? With the deadened baseball, I would think he's just as likely to hit 5 HR as he is 10.

Examine the SB. Again, he could steal the 12-15 you're hoping for, but I don't see it given his success rates. I mean, most teams put the red or yellow light on after a player shows a 65% success rate through their first 3 seasons without improvement, but maybe the rebuilding Rangers don't care about efficiency. I dunno.

I even prefer some backups to IKF. Jeffers and Varsho, off the top of my head. I rank IKF near the bottom 30 catchers. The small SB ceiling is limited by shitty team and lineup spot and ball park, and poor SB efficiency, and the 5-8 HR creates a deficit in a mixed league.

But I honestly haven't looked too closely at his sprint speed or batting metrics or anything, just kinda eyeballing. He looks like a David Fletcher-lite-lite if he's 3B/SS.

[Ken]

Let's examine the HR. How do you project 8-10, when he has 8 career HR in 846 PA over 2.5 seasons? With the deadened baseball, I would think he's just as likely to hit 5 HR as he is 10.

Examine the SB. Again, he could steal the 12-15 you're hoping for, but I don't see it given his success rates. I mean, most teams put the red or yellow light on after a player shows a 65% success rate through their first 3 seasons without improvement, but maybe the rebuilding Rangers don't care about efficiency. I dunno.

You may have misunderstood. I was referencing his projections, not my own analysis. Steamer, zips, atc, etc.

As far as how/why, catchers tend to develop later at the plate. In 2020 he was a different hitter so quoting his career stats doesn’t really move the needle.

I even prefer some backups to IKF. Jeffers and Varsho, off the top of my head. I rank IKF near the bottom 30 catchers. The small SB ceiling is limited by shitty team and lineup spot and ball park, and poor SB efficiency, and the 5-8 HR creates a deficit in a mixed league.

But I honestly haven't looked too closely at his sprint speed or batting metrics or anything, just kinda eyeballing. He looks like a David Fletcher-lite-lite if he's 3B/SS.

Understood I was providing the objective reasons why he is a $8-$10 catcher and goes many rounds before LeClerc in drafts where he is a catcher. Subjectively you can certainly prefer others!

[BuckyBuckner]

IKF is not catcher eligible in this league.

This morning I traded Leclerc and Houck for Varsho $4 who is catcher and rookie eligible. I should be able to find a low end closer for cheap in the draft.

[Teenwolf]

IKF is not catcher eligible in this league.

This morning I traded Leclerc and Houck for Varsho $4 who is catcher and rookie eligible. I should be able to find a low end closer for cheap in the draft.

Nice, I love Varsho at $4 for this format. A bit of a playing time risk if his bat struggles, but I would take that risk.

Varsho is a lot like IKF, except he has a lot more thump in the profile, better SB track record for both volume and success rate, similar plate discipline, more upside, more cache around the name. I love Varsho's specific situation because he's set to catch 30-50 games as a backup while also likely to see 100+ games in CF (and presumably other OF spots if he can handle CF). If he hits well, he could become a nice keeper.

I own Varsho in 2 of 4 possible leagues so perhaps my personal interest is slightly influencing my opinion here, but I've loved Varsho for years.

[chancellor]

Nice, I love Varsho at $4 for this format. A bit of a playing time risk if his bat struggles, but I would take that risk.

Varsho is a lot like IKF, except he has a lot more thump in the profile, better SB track record for both volume and success rate, similar plate discipline, more upside, more cache around the name. I love Varsho's specific situation because he's set to catch 30-50 games as a backup while also likely to see 100+ games in CF (and presumably other OF spots if he can handle CF). If he hits well, he could become a nice keeper.

I own Varsho in 2 of 4 possible leagues so perhaps my personal interest is slightly influencing my opinion here, but I've loved Varsho for years.

Agree with Teenwolf here, especially with the confidence that another low-end closer is a pretty easy find. I'm not quite as optimistic on the games played as a base case, but his upside his very good.