President Joseph Biden

[Sour Masher]

Sure. But inflation is short-term while the "booming" economy is longer-term. Paying $3.15 for gas sucks, but it will go down soon. Paying double the price for lumber sucked but as we saw, it was a short-term blip. But getting a better job because of the economy booming is game-changing.

I have friends, both real and Facebooky, who clearly are GOPers and who clearly think the economy is in shambles.

It amazes me how people can be tricked into believing things that do not jive with their lived experiences, and how susceptible people are to hyperbole. The former guy calls something a total disaster, or calls a city a war zone or a hell hole, and millions shake their heads vigorously in agreement. He calls himself a defender of democracy and they all think, yeah, that tracks. And what exactly was different when he was in charge? What exactly would be different if his vision was enacted in the places he calls hell holes? Nothing except for a few less immigrants and POC. Is that all it takes to change a hell hole into a paradise?

[Bene Futuis]

"Unemployment is shrinking. The stock market is booming. Americans are returning to the skies and even to movie theaters. And yet Republicans are deeply worried about the state of the economy.

Even though the US economy is expected to grow this year at the fastest pace in decades, consumer sentiment among self-identified Republicans is worse today than during the height of the pandemic, according to the University of Michigan.
In fact, Republicans are more pessimistic than at any point since September 2010, when the economy was just beginning to dig out of the Great Recession."
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/29/econo...rat/index.html

BREAKING: Stable geniuses who supported an obvious con man, fake billionaire whose economic acumen includes bankrupting a casino (among several other bankruptcies) don't know jack shit about the economy.

[Bene Futuis]

Lol, Biden "After years and years of infrastructure week, we're on the cusp of an infrastructure decade that I truly believe will transform America."

[Roy Hobbs]

He may not last 4 years, but the alternative is just as bad. Man, he sure looked bad in that speech of his.

[GwynnInTheHall]

He may not last 4 years, but the alternative is just as bad. Man, he sure looked bad in that speech of his.

It's a wonder he's lasted this long...

[revo]

Pre-inauguration reports that this would actually be the Joe Manchin presidency were really not too far off the mark.

[chancellor]

Sure. But inflation is short-term while the "booming" economy is longer-term. Paying $3.15 for gas sucks, but it will go down soon. Paying double the price for lumber sucked but as we saw, it was a short-term blip. But getting a better job because of the economy booming is game-changing.

So...change your mind since the end of June?

[revo]

So...change your mind since the end of June?

It sucks, and still sucks, but it's the supply chain backups worldwide that is the major factor in regards to inflation. As far as gas prices, the rise of the price of a barrel of oil + increased demand due to people driving again for work has been the culprits.

Obviously there is a major sector of the country blaming Biden for this, and that's fair game since the president is where the buck stops, but obviously neither are a result of anything he's done (or not done).

[Sour Masher]

It sucks, and still sucks, but it's the supply chain backups worldwide that is the major factor in regards to inflation. As far as gas prices, the rise of the price of a barrel of oil + increased demand due to people driving again for work has been the culprits.

Obviously there is a major sector of the country blaming Biden for this, and that's fair game since the president is where the buck stops, but obviously neither are a result of anything he's done (or not done).

Yeah, there are so many drivers of inflation right now, it is a perfect storm. One thing I read recently that surprised me is that despite the sense of all the transportation bottle necks, there has still been a record amount of movement driven by tremendous buying. People are buying more right now, so inflation has not scared them off. As long as people are buying at a record pace, pricing will favor sellers.

Also, inflation is embraced by some. I know at least one person getting SS that is happy about the massive jump in SS payouts. The perception, I think, is that inflation will decrease, but those SS bumps are here to stay. I'd bet a lot of older voters take it as a win.

[chancellor]

It sucks, and still sucks, but it's the supply chain backups worldwide that is the major factor in regards to inflation. As far as gas prices, the rise of the price of a barrel of oil + increased demand due to people driving again for work has been the culprits.

Agree in part - certainly the supply chain backups have driven shipping costs insane; container shipping costs have gone up anywhere from 2x to 5x, depending on FOB point. But metals prices (steel, stainless, copper, aluminum) have stayed way up, especially steel. Skilled labor costs are up a lot, also.

Obviously there is a major sector of the country blaming Biden for this, and that's fair game since the president is where the buck stops, but obviously neither are a result of anything he's done (or not done).

Yeah, that'll always happen in politics. Even in my low opinion of the president, I don't blame him for the supply chain issues. He's been poorly served by a Transportation Department that simply hasn't measured up to the task so far. It'll be interesting to see if the new US Maritime Administrator will help. She's a highly credentialed retired Navy Admiral, but has no commercial shipping experience.

[The Feral Slasher]

Agree in part - certainly the supply chain backups have driven shipping costs insane; container shipping costs have gone up anywhere from 2x to 5x, depending on FOB point. But metals prices (steel, stainless, copper, aluminum) have stayed way up, especially steel. Skilled labor costs are up a lot, also.



Yeah, that'll always happen in politics. Even in my low opinion of the president, I don't blame him for the supply chain issues. He's been poorly served by a Transportation Department that simply hasn't measured up to the task so far. It'll be interesting to see if the new US Maritime Administrator will help. She's a highly credentialed retired Navy Admiral, but has no commercial shipping experience.

Once Pete gets back from paternity leave everything will run smoothly.

:runs and hides:

[The Feral Slasher]

While I'll concur Biden is no progressive puppet, the Senate going blue would entail the risk of the US moving to the far-left. That's no right-wing fever vision, that's objective reality. The move to full-blown socialism would certainly not be instant - that's clearly in error - but the odds of that happening in the medium term become highly realistic. I'll use references from posters here on the left who I respect though often disagree with to outline why losing the Senate would probably, though not certainly, result in a far-left move in the medium term.

Both GITH and DMT have done an excellent job noting key goals they would like to see Congress and President Biden pursue should the Senate go blue. I'll note their analysis, if only slightly cleaned up by a good editor, has been far more cogent than many I've read from supposedly quality publications like The Daily Beast, Newsweek, and The Guardian, among others. These include:

- Statehood for Washington DC
- Statehood for Puerto Rico
- Full elimination of the Senate filibuster
- "Packing" the Supreme Court
- Numerous social initiatives, like Medicare for All/socialized health care.

However, I'll focus on the first four, which are political levers, rather than social initiatives. With a 50/50 Senate, the only people standing between DC Statehood are Joe Manchin and a partial handful of more liberal GOP Senators (Romney, Murkowski, Collins). I suspect Manchin will stand firm on opposition since DC as a state will dilute his leverage as a Senator, and also create a state very close to his geographically that will have a ton of leverage in the Senate. But I wouldn't rule out a Romney offsetting Manchin's vote, either. DC Statehood doesn't necessarily lock down the Senate, but it certainly provides a much greater margin for error for Democrats to hold the Senate. And it's another near-mortal lock for one or two more Dems in the House and three or four more Democratic electoral votes.

Puerto Rico is trickier since the politics are not as cut and dried as DC. As I noted in an earlier post, traditionally, the "liberal" party in Puerto Rico opposes statehood, while the "conservative" party favors it. I also believe the "liberal" party is in power now, but only by a small margin. I'm doubtful the combination of convincing the party in power in Puerto Rico will line up with the party in power to make statehood happen.

Full elimination of the Senate filibuster will be even more difficult. I'm pretty sure the 50 GOP Senators will stand firm on this one - Romney, for example, is on record opposing the changes already made - and more than just Manchin have opposed these changes from the Democratic side in the past. But while difficult, it's certainly possible. Let's, for the sake of discussion, assumes this happens.

"Packing" the Supreme Court is much like DC Statehood, though I do think Romney/Murkowski/Collins will stand firm on this one. Manchin's already stated he's opposed, but under the right circumstances and opportunities, could probably be swung around.

Basically, all of these, other than PR Statehood, hinge on Manchin and one or two less conservative GOP Senators. That looks like a pretty good formula for success on most of them to me.

Now combine that with who is the dynamic force in the Democratic Party right now. While far-left progressives don't control the party, and the DNC has attempted to keep them in check, given the age of the old guard and the dynamism of those on the far-left, I have little doubt who will hold the levers of power in Congress in 4-8 years, and that's the far-left. Add in better assurance of keeping the Senate with DC statehood, control of the Supreme Court, and an almost locked-down House, all that's left is the presidency in 2024 or 2028. And I have no doubt AOC, barring some sort of political or personal catastrophe, will make that move and have a good chance of success.

None of these are guaranteed, but none are some sort of crazed, conspiracy theory fantasy, either. The political levers the left, and especially the far-left, want to pull are clearly outlined here and in any number of national publications. Nor are they shy about why they want to pull those political levers - it's to drive a socialist/neo-socialist agenda.

So, yeah, control of the Senate this time around is a big deal.

you can relax at this point

[revo]

you can relax at this point

I'm also still patiently waiting for Biden to come take my guns.

[The Feral Slasher]

I'm also still patiently waiting for Biden to come take my guns.

First he needs to cancel Christmas, be patient

[chancellor]

I'm also still patiently waiting for Biden to come take my guns.

He'll do that right after his naptime.